Best ATS Bets In The Sweet 16

Best ATS bets in the Sweet 16

By Jeff Gold/Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER

You're out of your bracket pool. You picked Duke in your survivor pool. You bet on Missouri to win the tournament. Stop dreaming about the big prize and focus on straight wagers. There are just 15 games left to bet in the tournament.

The prohibitive favorite to win the title is Kentucky. At Bovada, the Wildcats are a touch over 2-1 (21-10). (Second choice Ohio State checks in at 5-1.) Instead of rushing in a bet on the Wildcats to win the tournament, a better value option is to bet them individually in each game and lay the points.

Yes, I'm talking about Kentucky, the team that is ranked 13th of our remaining 16 teams in the SB, a team that is 13-21 ATS and one of the only four teams with a negative SB number (-.04). (And the team that faces Chad Millman's Indiana Hoosiers in the Sweet 16.)

It is surprising that a 13-21 ATS team has a -.04 SB number. The expectation is that it should be worse.

As a point of comparison, the only team left in the tournament that has an ATS record that resembles Kentucky is Xavier (12-18-2). Xavier's SB number is -.91. In games that have been decided by five points or fewer relative to the spread, Kentucky is 5-12 this year.

Spread results that are decided by very small margins can be more attributed to luck, especially in the short run. Whether Kentucky gives up a meaningless 3-pointer at the end of a game when it's up 20 (and was an 18-point favorite) is a completely random outcome more than anything else. Obviously, the same can't be said for results that are more decisive.

The team on the other extreme is Louisville. Despite being 20-13-1 ATS, Louisville has a -.41 SB number. Of the 16 teams left in the tournament, Louisville is the only one that has a positive ATS number and a negative SB number. Not surprisingly, its matchup against Michigan State (our No. 1 ranked SB team left) yields the biggest SB difference (4.76) between two teams facing each other in Sweet 16 contests. Enjoy the rest of the tournament.

Special thanks to Sal Selvaggio of MadduxSports.com for providing Insider with sweat barometer data all season.

<offer></offer>

<!-- begin inline 1 -->ATS Records for the Sweet 16 teams

<table><thead><tr><th>Rk</th><th>Team</th><th style="width: 50px;">SU</th><th style="width: 50px;">ATS</th><th>ATS/Home</th><th style="width: 30px;">ATS/Away</th><th>SB</th><th>Closing Line</th><th>RPI</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>1</td><td>Michigan State Spartans</td><td>28-7-0</td><td>23-10-0</td><td>12-3-0</td><td>7-4-0</td><td>4.35</td><td>-7.26</td><td>3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>2</td><td>Ohio Bobcats</td><td>29-7-0</td><td>16-13-0</td><td>7-4-0</td><td>8-6-0</td><td>3.62</td><td>-4.03</td><td>45</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>3</td><td>Indiana Hoosiers</td><td>25-8-0</td><td>16-10-1</td><td>10-4-0</td><td>5-6-0</td><td>2.43</td><td>-3.24</td><td>17</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>4</td><td>North Carolina State Wolfpack</td><td>24-12-0</td><td>17-14-1</td><td>3-11-1</td><td>6-4-0</td><td>2.02</td><td>-2.52</td><td>50</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>5</td><td>Baylor Bears</td><td>27-7-0</td><td>13-13-1</td><td>3-7-0</td><td>9-3-0</td><td>1.06</td><td>-3.95</td><td>9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>6</td><td>Cincinnati Bearcats</td><td>24-10-0</td><td>17-13-0</td><td>4-9-0</td><td>7-5-0</td><td>0.98</td><td>-2.22</td><td>43</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>7</td><td>Ohio State Buckeyes</td><td>28-7-0</td><td>16-14-1</td><td>8-6-1</td><td>7-4-0</td><td>0.89</td><td>-11.69</td><td>7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>8</td><td>Wisconsin Badgers</td><td>26-9-0</td><td>17-14-0</td><td>6-8-0</td><td>8-4-0</td><td>0.45</td><td>-6.94</td><td>23</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>9</td><td>Kansas Jayhawks</td><td>28-6-0</td><td>16-16-0</td><td>8-9-0</td><td>8-2-0</td><td>0.36</td><td>-10.05</td><td>6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>10</td><td>Syracuse Orange</td><td>33-2-0</td><td>17-17-0</td><td>10-10-0</td><td>9-1-0</td><td>0.31</td><td>-12.81</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>11</td><td>Marquette Golden Eagles</td><td>27-7-0</td><td>18-12-1</td><td>6-6-1</td><td>6-5-0</td><td>0.26</td><td>-6.94</td><td>8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>12</td><td>North Carolina Tar Heels</td><td>27-5-0</td><td>18-14-0</td><td>10-6-0</td><td>8-3-0</td><td>0.05</td><td>-12.86</td><td>4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>13</td><td>Kentucky Wildcats</td><td>33-2-0</td><td>13-21-0</td><td>5-13-0</td><td>8-1-0</td><td>-0.04</td><td>-15.75</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>14</td><td>Florida Gators</td><td>24-10-0</td><td>15-15-0</td><td>7-8-0</td><td>4-7-0</td><td>-0.12</td><td>-7.55</td><td>30</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>15</td><td>Louisville Cardinals</td><td>28-9-0</td><td>20-13-1</td><td>8-8-1</td><td>6-5-0</td><td>-0.41</td><td>-6.47</td><td>14</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>16</td><td>Xavier Musketeers</td><td>23-12-0</td><td>12-18-2</td><td>6-8-0</td><td>5-7-0</td><td>-0.91</td><td>-3.84</td><td>41</td></tr></tbody></table>

I have no opinion on the material posted above.

I just post it for those to read who may not have Insider....

Can you post the NHL Playoff Meter one with the St Louis Blues?

Thanks

Penugins13 said:

Can you post the NHL Playoff Meter one with the St Louis Blues?

Thanks

Click to expand...

I don't see it... Link?

Hache Man said:

I don't see it... Link?

Click to expand...

http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/stor...t-louis-blues-lead-nhl-points-look-cup-champs

Playoff Power Meter: Odd Blues

St. Louis has taken an uncommon statistical path to the top of the NHL


The St. Louis Blues have established themselves as arguably the best team in the NHL. But, as we've learned from previous years, regular-season performance is not the best way to gauge who will win the Stanley Cup.


So that's we why designed the Playoff Power Meter. We wanted to find regular-season metrics that best correlated with championships and use those findings to figure out who will most likely win the Cup. Some metrics, like power-play opportunities, are bad indicators of a Cup-winning team -- so they were given very little weight. Others, like wins against elite NHL teams, correlate highly with championships -- so they were given a lot of weight.



When we ran the numbers for the Blues, they ended up ninth in the rankings. That's right -- the Power Meter says there are eight teams more likely to win the Cup.



It doesn't pass the eye test. So let's look deeper.
<offer><!-- begin inline 1 -->Playoff Power Meter Rankings

Using the Playoff Power Meter formula, these are the rankings to date. Remember: This is about finding the teams that most resemble Stanley Cup champions, not a power ranking of their regular-season performance. (Note: Maximum score is 38)
<table><thead><tr><th></th><th></th><th></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

<!-- end inline 1 -->

The Playoff Power Meter was built by looking at previous Cup winners -- as well as those who fell short -- and analyzing which metrics best correlated with championships. So, for example, teams must score at least 2.8 goals per game, because history tells us it's pretty tough to win it all without some offensive firepower. But the Blues average just 2.56 goals per game, which is well short of the benchmark. Therefore, they aren't awarded the four points.


However, one weakness of the Power Meter formula is sample size. It looks at teams only since the lockout -- for good reason -- and that means there isn't a great variety of teams to analyze. So when the Power Meter looks at the Blues, it is utterly confused, because they aren't quite like any other team since the lockout.



In fact, the Blues are an enigma. First off, they're allowing an absurd 1.86 goals per game. Since the lockout, only the 2008 Red Wings have even come close to that mark -- but even they were a way off at 2.18 goals per game. (And won the Cup.) But that Wings team also scored 3.07 goals per game, which is right on par with what's needed from a Cup-winning team. In fact, the average championship club since 2006 has scored 3.2 goals per game -- so the Blues are a whopping two-thirds of a goal shy of that clip.



Secondly, the Blues not only prevent shots (26.3 shots against per game), but their goalies also stop them (.929 save percentage). That combination has proved to be lethal. It's something we haven't seen before in a Cup team -- or any team, for that matter. Last year's champions, the Bruins, had great goaltending, but they also allowed 32.7 shots per game, which was a bit too much for comfort.



The '08 Wings allowed just 23.5 shots per game, but their goaltending was mediocre (.907 save percentage). In fact, there hasn't been a team since the lockout with as much proficiency in those categories as the 2012 Blues. The 2010 Devils come the closest, allowing just 27 shots per game with a .916 save percentage.



So the Power Meter isn't bullish about the Blues because the formula is designed to find teams that look like previous Cup champions. (And frankly, most of them since 2006 look statistically similar.) But the Blues aren't like them. If they're going to win it all, they will have to pave their own path.



That means continuing to prevent shots and getting more strong goaltending from Jaroslav Halak. But there's a reason no one's done it before: Elite teams generally have strong offenses that wear down opponents in a seven-game series. However, if any team can do it, it's the Blues.



Now let's look at a few clubs the Power Meter actually likes (ranking in parentheses):



Boston Bruins (1): Yes, they've struggled a lot. And yes, they've lost Tuukka Rask. But as long as Tim Thomas can rebound from his recent struggles and be his old self, the Bruins may still be the favorites heading into the postseason. They meet nearly every Power Meter benchmark, and they are still defeating the top NHL teams at a consistent rate. However, much like last season, the Bruins are allowing a lot of shots (30.1), which isn't a problem if they have good goaltending -- and that's a big if right now.



Detroit Red Wings (2): Now here's a more traditional-looking championship team. They are doing exactly what past Red Wings teams have done, with a strong goal differential (.61) and a strong shot differential (5.4). Plus, they have the best record in the NHL against the top eight clubs, which is a strong indication that they will go deep in the postseason.



Vancouver Canucks (3): This Canucks team isn't as strong as last year's. The one concern is their shot differential (0.8), but previous Cup teams have proven that as long as you're breaking even on shots, you can still win it all. In fact, half of the Cup-winning teams since the lockout have had shot differentials of 0.8 or less.



Pittsburgh Penguins (4): They are the X factor here. If Sidney Crosby plays even close to his old self, they could be a very dangerous team. The question, though, is whether Crosby can help them beat the elite NHL teams in the later rounds, which they've been having some trouble with (only six wins in 15 games against the top eight teams).



New York Rangers (6): The Rangers are intriguing because they are a lot like the Blues -- stellar on defense but mediocre on offense. But the Rangers are far less prone to extremes than the Blues, which may be a good thing. They fall slightly short on the benchmarks for goals (2.74 per game; 2.8 benchmark) and well short on shots (27.9 per game; 31 benchmark). And they have 11 wins in 17 games against the NHL's top eight teams; however, they'd better hope they play the Flyers at some point, because five of those wins come against Philly.



New Jersey Devils (7): They really aren't that interesting a playoff team, except for one category: wins against elite teams. They've won 10 of 18, which is just enough to make them very dangerous. They've beat the Rangers and Penguins three times each, so they could end up spoiling someone's Cup chances, though they may not be in the best position to win it themselves.



Philadelphia Flyers (8): If they could just beat the best teams in the league, they may be among the favorites to win the Cup. But they have just eight wins in 20 games versus the top eight teams in the NHL -- although five of those losses have come against the Rangers, so that's a matchup they'll want to avoid. That said, the recent emergence of Ilya Bryzgalov could help them significantly in the Power Meter rankings as far as goals allowed per game (2.78 right now, well short of the 2.6 benchmark) and save percentage (.903, short of the .910 benchmark).
</offer>

Thanks, that's a decent read.

Blues have no chance to win the cup.

Bruins are 18-20 ever since their incredible streak ended; they aren't repeating.
Best bet in the round of 16 is Baylor -6.