Would you hedge this bracket, and if so, how?

HarryCaray · Mar 27, 2012

OK I'm in a 27 person, $100 bracket. 80% to first, 20% to 2nd. If my bracket wins out I win, if not I get 4th at best (I've worked every possible scenario). 2,160 is not a life changing amount of money but would really come in handy. I have Kentucky and Ohio St. in the championship with Kentucky winning.

Since I have both faves this weekend, and Kentucky would def be favored in the championship over either team, should I take a couple hundo on the 2 dog MLs this weekend and if both faves win take OSU ML in the championship?

I think it would be smart but I truly think mine will win out. I really like OSU; kinda scared of Kent/Louisville. Also I wouldn't be 100% sure on UK over OSU if that matchup happens.

:think2:

ALSportsJunkie · Mar 27, 2012

250 ML each dog this weekend. 500 ML dog championship game. That is what I would do.

HarryCaray · Mar 27, 2012

ALSportsJunkie said:
250 ML each dog this weekend. 500 ML dog championship game. That is what I would do.

All faves win and I almost cut my profit in half though...

ALSportsJunkie · Mar 27, 2012

True...I spoke too hastily...maybe use some in-game wagering or halftime bets if Kentucky starts to lose? I dunno...just don't see how Kentucky goes down to L'ville. Kansas/OhSt is tricky. Maybe 100 on Lville ML...then 250 on Kansas ML...then just see what odds you can get on the championship game.

HarryCaray · Mar 27, 2012

I like the idea of putting 100 on L'ville ML, especially cause I'm getting nice + money. If UK wins then like $300 on KU ML.

If I make it to the finals I'd probably just let it ride. Maybe another $200 on OSU + the points so I could win them both...

kermit16 · Mar 27, 2012

HarryCaray said:
OK I'm in a 27 person, $100 bracket. 80% to first, 20% to 2nd. If my bracket wins out I win, if not I get 4th at best (I've worked every possible scenario). 2,160 is not a life changing amount of money but would really come in handy. I have Kentucky and Ohio St. in the championship with Kentucky winning.

Since I have both faves this weekend, and Kentucky would def be favored in the championship over either team, should I take a couple hundo on the 2 dog MLs this weekend and if both faves win take OSU ML in the championship?

I think it would be smart but I truly think mine will win out. I really like OSU; kinda scared of Kent/Louisville. Also I wouldn't be 100% sure on UK over OSU if that matchup happens.

:think2:

You didn't mention where you would place if one of your teams won this Saturday while the other lost. Would you still be in the Money list ? Also try to figure out if both favorites should win, How big of a favorite will Kentucky be ? I think Kentucky -41/2. Any thoughts ? It does make a big difference as the Math counts in your case.

paftraft · Mar 27, 2012

Definately hedge, all smart players would! A bird in the hand is woth 2 in the bush!

HarryCaray · Mar 27, 2012

kermit16 said:
You didn't mention where you would place if one of your teams won this Saturday while the other lost. Would you still be in the Money list ? Also try to figure out if both favorites should win, How big of a favorite will Kentucky be ? I think Kentucky -41/2. Any thoughts ? It does make a big difference as the Math counts in your case.

Nope only top 2 places pay. No way I finish #2 if I lose even one game. I'm in second and 1st place guy has Kentucky over Kansas, and the OSU over Kansas points would win it for me. Any other combo and I get 4th at best...3rd place has OSU over Kentucky, 4th has Louisville over OSU...if you can believe that...

HarryCaray · Mar 27, 2012

Louisville and Kansas in finals and obv I don't overtake 1st

Akillies · Mar 27, 2012

i think l'vile has a good shot at winning

HarryCaray · Mar 27, 2012

Akillies said:
i think l'vile has a good shot at winning

Agreed

kermit16 · Mar 27, 2012

Akillies said:
i think l'vile has a good shot at winning

I disagree. Louisville doesn't belong in the final 4. Florida simply collapse is the only reason they are in the final 4. Kentucky has way too many athletes. I've been doing a 2 team ml parlay on Kentucky/Ohio State all the way from start to finish. However I would do a ML hedge with Kansas and let my Kentucky wager lie. Of course that's just me. sometimes you have to go with your gut and I love this Gilcrist-Kidd play !This guy just won't stop !

TomGshotput · Mar 27, 2012

By definition, you're giving up your edge in exchange for a sure payout

In this case you essentially have a three team parlay to pay out $2 100. (because it's all favorites, the current value of your bracket is around $1 000). Having to buy off on three games means giving up a lot of that value. Only bet Louisville if you think taking them plus the points is a profitable bet. After Kentucky wins the early game, maybe take Kansas. But if you are that desperate to give up your edge, why were you making $100 long shot bets in the first place?

Do you know the other guys with chances to win. See if you can make a bet with them without paying juice

BAGIANT · Mar 27, 2012

I think Kansas wins it all.

kermit16 · Mar 27, 2012

BAGIANT said:
I think Kansas wins it all.

You can still buy Kansas at 5/1 but they will probably pay more by wagering them on the ML the next 2 games.

Jstack34 · Mar 28, 2012

kermit16 said:
I disagree. Louisville doesn't belong in the final 4. Florida simply collapse is the only reason they are in the final 4. Kentucky has way too many athletes. I've been doing a 2 team ml parlay on Kentucky/Ohio State all the way from start to finish. However I would do a ML hedge with Kansas and let my Kentucky wager lie. Of course that's just me. sometimes you have to go with your gut and I love this Gilcrist-Kidd play !This guy just won't stop !

Florida shoulda won. I had them in the final 4 and was a little salty. Also, Kidd-Gilchrist is the man. Hes featured in a documentary, kid had a rough time with a lot of people close to him dying

kermit16 · Mar 28, 2012

Jstack34 said:
Florida shoulda won. I had them in the final 4 and was a little salty. Also, Kidd-Gilchrist is the man. Hes featured in a documentary, kid had a rough time with a lot of people close to him dying

Yes, Florida just choked the game away ! Kidd-Gilchrist is a sure fire NBA player !

ICAUITUA · Mar 28, 2012

HarryCaray said:
Nope only top 2 places pay. No way I finish #2 if I lose even one game. I'm in second and 1st place guy has Kentucky over Kansas, and the OSU over Kansas points would win it for me. Any other combo and I get 4th at best...3rd place has OSU over Kentucky, 4th has Louisville over OSU...if you can believe that...

I don't have the actual points you're behind or know if it's standard scoring, but from what you posted your worst final standing doesn't make sense... Wouldn't you finish 2nd if OSU beat Kentucky?... you say OSU beating kansas would give you enough points to win it, so if OSU wins you pass the guy in 1st now and finish ahead of him, if you are ahead or even with the guy who has louisville you'd beat him with the points from Kentucky winning so you'd at worst finish 2nd? Same scenario if Louisville beats OSU, you pass the guy ahead of you with OSU win over kansas, maintain position on guy who has OSU over Kentucky? IF Kentucky beats Kansas you dont beat guy in first, but can't lose position to guy in 3rd or guy in 4th???? There are 8 final outcomes and at least 3 of them have you finishing 2nd if you are within enough points to pass the leader with a OSU win and ahead or tied with the other 2 guys....

GilRenard · Mar 28, 2012

If I'm you, I'd come up with a number that would guarantee me a small win without costing too much of the overall prize. I'd do like $250. First, I'd take the points with Louisville. I don't think they will win, but they very well could cover, giving you a roundabout middle. If Kentucky wins and covers, I'd up the $250 a bit on the Kansas money line maybe to $350 to lock in a slight profit. If you are lucky enough to get a Louisville loss and cover, I'd then bet the entire amount ($500ish) on Kansas plus the points. If you get the Kentucky/OSU matchup, then I'd lay an amount to guarantee a profit (depending on whether or not you 'middled' one or both of the first two game) on the OSU money line (which should pay decent). In this scenario, you should be able to lock in a decent profit while risking less than half of the potential prize.

In my view, it's unlikely that all three favorites will both win AND cover.

GilRenard · Mar 28, 2012

Here is another idea. You could bet a future against Kentucky winning (if you can find one....should pay +$) and also bet a future for Kansas to win (should pay nice money ~5/1). This would cover all the scenarios for you losing the pool. You could crunch the numbers to guarantee a small profit no matter what, and you shouldn't have to risk much more that a third of the potential prize to do so. You could 'middle' and hit both of these bets as well for good money if Kansas wins it all.