1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees (97-65 in 2011): The Yankees led the American League in wins last season and outscored opponents by a whopping 201 runs – easily the best in baseball. But no one remembers that after another postseason flameout. One World Series title in 10 years won’t cut it for the fans of the team with the highest payroll in the game.
The good news is that this team is loaded for 2012 and should win the AL East. Offense is never a problem for this lineup, second in runs scored last summer and tops in home runs with 222. There are some age concerns in the infield, but they are loaded with power and defense behind 37-year-old SS Derek Jeter (.297) and 36-year-old 3B Alex Rodriguez (16 HRs) are past their primes but still formidable with a bat, as is 31-year-old Mark Teixeira (39 HRs, 111 RBI). Second basemen 29-year-old Robinson Cano is the kid of the group and finished second in the league in extra-base hits and ranked among the top four in total bases for the third year in a row. He set career highs in runs (104) and RBIs (118).
29-year old catcher Russell Martin (.237) was a good pick-up and belted 18 homers. He loves this small park, but hits just .217 on the road, buying time for prospects Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez. The outfield has a valuable weapon in LF Brett Gardner, a leadoff hitter who swiped 49 bases and was caught just 13 times. RF Nick Swisher (23 homers, 123 Ks) and newcomer Raul Ibanez will take some of Swisher’s at-bats against right-handed pitching. The team MVP, though, was 31-year-old CF Curtis Granderson who had a monster 2011 with 41 homers, 10 triples, 25 steals and 85 walks. Age and injuries and a concern with this offense, but they will be one of the best in the league again.
The pitching staff was surprisingly strong last summer despite age, and they look improved. 6-foot-7 newcomer 23-year-old Michael Pineda comes over from Seattle with electric stuff and a 3.74 ERA and 173 strikeouts in 171 innings. Opponents hit .211 off him. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who might struggle in this park, but was an excellent addition.
31-year old lefty C.C. Sabathia (19-8, 3.00 ERA) is a dominant ace. Young Ivan Nova (16-4, 3.70 ERA) was a huge addition last summer and they still have high hopes for Phil Hughes (5.79 ERA), who battled injuries. If the kids have problems, the Yankees have veterans Freddy Garcia (12-8) and newcomers Andy Pettitte and former Dodger Hiroki Kuroda to lean on. The bullpen is deep with Joba Chamberlain, Scott Proctor, Rafael Soriano (4.12), David Robertson (1.08) and 42-year-old Mariano Rivera (44 saves, 2.04 ERA). We keep waiting for Rivera to break down but he never does. The Pinstripes are the team to beat in the AL East.
Tampa Bay Rays (91-71 in 2011): If you’re looking for a small-market team to root for and slay the big boys, the Rays could do it! Tampa Bay’s offense loves to run under manager Joe Maddon, second in baseball with 155 steals. CF B.J. Upton (71 walks, 23 HRs, 36 steals), LF Desmond Jennings (20 steals), OF Sam Fuld (20 steals) and 2B Bob Zobrist (20 HRs, 19 steals) are back and love to attack the base paths and disrupt opposing pitchers.
3B Evan Longoria (31 HRs, 80 walks) and RF Matt Joyce (19 HRs) provide the power to knock them in. 33-year-old 1B Carlos Pena returns after a one-year visit to the Chicago, where he hit 28 homers but just .195. He had his best years in this park and hit 46, 31 and 28 homers the previous three years with Tampa.
While the offense is good enough, though not great, the pitching is loaded. Start with a pair of aces in hard-throwing David Price (12-13, 3.49 ERA, 218 Ks in 224 innings) and James Shields (2.82, 11 complete games, four shutouts). A guy to watch is 24-year-old Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson (13-10, 2.95 ERA), who has ace-stuff, and 22-year-old phenom Matt Moore, who fanned 15 in 9 innings last season. Tall veteran Jeff Niemann (11-7, 4.06 ERA) is decent and 24-year-old Alex Cobb (52 IP, 49 hits, 37 Ks, 3.42 ERA) can start or relieve.
The bullpen will make or break this team, but looks above average with Joel Peralta (2.93) and J.P. Howell in middle relief for 35-year-old Kyle Farnsworth (25 saves, 2.18 ERA). Fernando Rodney comes aboard and they hope he’s over back problems. Tampa Bay has outstanding defense in the field, which helps them on the road with an impressive 44-37 road record last summer. With all these arms, this is a team built for the long haul and they could be playing in October – again.
Boston Red Sox (90-72 in 2011): After a miserable start in 2011, the Red Sox were the best team in the AL – until Labor Day. A talented team (tops in runs scored) stumbled through a stunning September collapse, missing the playoffs. As a consequence, the owners cleaned house, firing the manager and GM. New manager Bobby Valentine takes over and has been the opposite of Terry Francona, working the players hard in spring training. A slow start is unlikely again, but do they have the pitching for the long haul?
They do on paper.
Lefty Jon Lester (15-9, 3.47 ERA) and Josh Beckett (13-7, 2.89) were outstanding last summer until September when they fell apart along with everyone else. They are a terrific one-two lefty/righty punch. The injury to righty Clay Buchholz (back) was the biggest blow to the staff, throwing only 82.2 innings (3.48 ERA), but he’s back and looks to return to this 2010 form (17-7, 2.33). He’s been strong in the spring, a great sign.
Injuries to Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Lackey (both out for 2012) have strained the rotation’s depth, so they are rolling the dice with lefty Andrew Miller, often erratic with walks, and former middle man/closer Daniel Bard. Bard throws 100 MPH and wants to be a starter, but has only two pitches, so don’t pencil him in for 15 wins and 200 innings yet.
The bullpen lost closer Jonathan Papelbon to Philadelphia. Middle man Alfredo Aceves is outstanding, but beyond that there are a lot of question marks. They will be leaning on Franklin Morales, Matt Albers and Rich Hill. Aceves started four games last season, and posted a record of 10-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 55 appearances overall. They really need him or Bard in the pen.
At least the offense has no problems, at No. 1 in baseball last season in runs, on-base percentage and slugging, plus second in batting average! CF Jacoby Ellsbury is in a contact year and was sensational with 39 steals, a .321 average, 32 homers and 105 RBI last year. LF Ryan Sweeny was picked-up from Oakland and is a lefty bat that is made for Fenway park, and will battle Darnell McDonald and Carl Crawford (.255, 11 HRs) for time. Crawford was a colossal bust and is not as well suited to play on natural grass.
Former MVP 2B Dustin Pedroia (21 HRs, .307) is in his prime along with 1B Adrian Gonzalez (.338, 27 HRs, 117 RBI). DH David Ortiz (.309, 29 HRs) continues to hit and they expect 3B Kevin Youkalis (17 HRs) to bounce back from injuries from hernia surgery and case of hip bursitis. Shortstop is a concern with Mike Aviles as they don’t expect young Jose Iglesias to be ready. Catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (16 HRs) turned into a good find and Boston brings in Kelly Shoppach to provide defense behind the plate, which has been a problem for several years.
The Red Sox will be good enough to win 90 again, and if the pitching improves they are a threat to steal the division. But with the new skipper working them hard in March, will they be prone to burning out down the stretch again?
Toronto Blue Jays (81-81 in 2011): The Blue Jays actually have some good young talent, but have the misfortune to be stuck in this brutal division. This offense is very good, at No. 6 in baseball in runs scored last summer, and No. 10 in slugging.
The outfield is the strength of the offense. 31-year-old CF Rajai Davis (34 steals) and DH Edwin Encarnacion (17 HRs, 70 runs) try and get on base for RF Jose Batista, who stroked 43 homers with 103 RBI while hitting .302. That came on the heels of his 2010 season with 54 home runs. Bautista led the majors in OPS (1.056) and walks (132).
1B Adam Lind (26 HRs) provides more sock along with catcher J.P. Arencibia (23 HRs), and SS Yunel Escobar (.290, 11 HRs, 77 runs) was a great acquisition from the Braves. But despite all that power, the Jays finished No. 18 in on-base percentage. 2B Kelly Johnson (.270) and 3B Brett Lawrie (.293) round out the infield. Johnson struggled for the Diamondbacks last season, but in 33 games with Toronto he batted .270 with a .364 on-base percentage and three homers.
While the offense is above average, the pitching staff is young and thin. Only five teams had a higher earned-run average from their starters last season than the Blue Jays at 4.55. They are relying on 27-year-old lefty Ricky Romero (15-11, 2.92 ERA) and erratic Brandon Morrow (11-11, 203 Ks in 179 IP, 69 walks) to anchor the rotation. Beyond that are the youngsters with promise in Kyle Drabek (6.06 ERA), Henderson Alvarez (3.53) and Brett Cecil, the lefty who earned 15 victories in 2010 but was shipped back to Class AAA last April.
The bullpen is deep with veterans Jesse Litsch and Carlos Villanueva (4.04), and they reacquired righty setup man Jason Frasor (2.98). Toronto traded for closer Sergio Santos (Padres) and still has Francisco Cordero, the former Reds’ closer. Toronto will sock the ball at home, but struggle on the road with this suspect pitching and defense. A team to look at over the total, especially at home?
Baltimore Orioles (69-93 in 2011): The Orioles haven’t done much right in a decade. They were in last place last year with a terrible road mark (30-51), No. 14 in baseball in runs scored, No. 19 in on-base percentage and dead last in team ERA (4.89).
The offense has a gem in shortstop J.J. Hardy (30 HRs, 80 RBI), a steal from the Twins. His .990 fielding percentage and .491 slugging percentage led AL shortstops. Throw in Gold Glove catcher Matt Wieters (22 HRs) and center fielder Adam Jones (25 HRs) and the Orioles are surprisingly strong up the middle – a terrific building block.
But second baseman Brian Roberts (concussion) wasn’t on the field much and there are long term concerns. Robert Andino (.263) filled in and was decent, but 3B is a weak spot with Josh Bell and Wilson Betemit. 28-year old Mark Reynonds is on first and belted 37 homers, but just a .221 average, along with 86 RBI, so no one was getting on base in front of him.
RF Nick Markakis (.284, 15 HRs) is solid and won a Gold Glove in right field after going 160 games without committing an error. Jones didn’t win a Gold Glove, but he was outstanding in center field, though left field is wide open with Nolan Reimold I and Jai Miller vying for time.
Then there’s the pitching, which looks brutal. Righthander Jeremy Guthrie was very good the last two seasons, but was traded to Colorado. Tommy Hunter went 3-3 with a 5.06 ERA in 12 games after being acquired from the Rangers, but is no ace. Jake Arrieta (10-8, 5.05 ERA) underwent surgery in August to remove a bone spur from his elbow, though he’s been good in the spring. Lefthander Zach Britton will stay in the rotation after going 11-11 with a 4.61 ERA as a rookie.
That’s why they signed 26-year-old Taiwanese lefthander Wei-Yin Chen, hoping to catch Asian lightening in a bottle. Chen threw 165 innings with a 2.68 ERA and 94/31 K/BB ratio for the Chunichi Dragons in Japan last season and will move right into the Orioles’ rotation at age 26. They also signed Japanese lefthander Tsuyoshi Wada, but he’s a soft thrower and won’t be effective in the rugged AL East parks.
The bullpen is thin with Kevin Gregg (40 walks, 59 innings, 7 blown saves) and former first-round pick Brian Matusz (1-9, 10.65 ERA). Former set-up man Jim Johnson was closing games in September and could remain in that role. They also grabbed three guys from the Rangers in Pedro Strop, lefty Zach Phillips and submariner Darren O’Day.
All in all, they will be closer to 100 losses again than 100 wins.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees (97-65 in 2011): The Yankees led the American League in wins last season and outscored opponents by a whopping 201 runs – easily the best in baseball. But no one remembers that after another postseason flameout. One World Series title in 10 years won’t cut it for the fans of the team with the highest payroll in the game.
The good news is that this team is loaded for 2012 and should win the AL East. Offense is never a problem for this lineup, second in runs scored last summer and tops in home runs with 222. There are some age concerns in the infield, but they are loaded with power and defense behind 37-year-old SS Derek Jeter (.297) and 36-year-old 3B Alex Rodriguez (16 HRs) are past their primes but still formidable with a bat, as is 31-year-old Mark Teixeira (39 HRs, 111 RBI). Second basemen 29-year-old Robinson Cano is the kid of the group and finished second in the league in extra-base hits and ranked among the top four in total bases for the third year in a row. He set career highs in runs (104) and RBIs (118).
29-year old catcher Russell Martin (.237) was a good pick-up and belted 18 homers. He loves this small park, but hits just .217 on the road, buying time for prospects Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez. The outfield has a valuable weapon in LF Brett Gardner, a leadoff hitter who swiped 49 bases and was caught just 13 times. RF Nick Swisher (23 homers, 123 Ks) and newcomer Raul Ibanez will take some of Swisher’s at-bats against right-handed pitching. The team MVP, though, was 31-year-old CF Curtis Granderson who had a monster 2011 with 41 homers, 10 triples, 25 steals and 85 walks. Age and injuries and a concern with this offense, but they will be one of the best in the league again.
The pitching staff was surprisingly strong last summer despite age, and they look improved. 6-foot-7 newcomer 23-year-old Michael Pineda comes over from Seattle with electric stuff and a 3.74 ERA and 173 strikeouts in 171 innings. Opponents hit .211 off him. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who might struggle in this park, but was an excellent addition.
31-year old lefty C.C. Sabathia (19-8, 3.00 ERA) is a dominant ace. Young Ivan Nova (16-4, 3.70 ERA) was a huge addition last summer and they still have high hopes for Phil Hughes (5.79 ERA), who battled injuries. If the kids have problems, the Yankees have veterans Freddy Garcia (12-8) and newcomers Andy Pettitte and former Dodger Hiroki Kuroda to lean on. The bullpen is deep with Joba Chamberlain, Scott Proctor, Rafael Soriano (4.12), David Robertson (1.08) and 42-year-old Mariano Rivera (44 saves, 2.04 ERA). We keep waiting for Rivera to break down but he never does. The Pinstripes are the team to beat in the AL East.
Tampa Bay Rays (91-71 in 2011): If you’re looking for a small-market team to root for and slay the big boys, the Rays could do it! Tampa Bay’s offense loves to run under manager Joe Maddon, second in baseball with 155 steals. CF B.J. Upton (71 walks, 23 HRs, 36 steals), LF Desmond Jennings (20 steals), OF Sam Fuld (20 steals) and 2B Bob Zobrist (20 HRs, 19 steals) are back and love to attack the base paths and disrupt opposing pitchers.
3B Evan Longoria (31 HRs, 80 walks) and RF Matt Joyce (19 HRs) provide the power to knock them in. 33-year-old 1B Carlos Pena returns after a one-year visit to the Chicago, where he hit 28 homers but just .195. He had his best years in this park and hit 46, 31 and 28 homers the previous three years with Tampa.
While the offense is good enough, though not great, the pitching is loaded. Start with a pair of aces in hard-throwing David Price (12-13, 3.49 ERA, 218 Ks in 224 innings) and James Shields (2.82, 11 complete games, four shutouts). A guy to watch is 24-year-old Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson (13-10, 2.95 ERA), who has ace-stuff, and 22-year-old phenom Matt Moore, who fanned 15 in 9 innings last season. Tall veteran Jeff Niemann (11-7, 4.06 ERA) is decent and 24-year-old Alex Cobb (52 IP, 49 hits, 37 Ks, 3.42 ERA) can start or relieve.
The bullpen will make or break this team, but looks above average with Joel Peralta (2.93) and J.P. Howell in middle relief for 35-year-old Kyle Farnsworth (25 saves, 2.18 ERA). Fernando Rodney comes aboard and they hope he’s over back problems. Tampa Bay has outstanding defense in the field, which helps them on the road with an impressive 44-37 road record last summer. With all these arms, this is a team built for the long haul and they could be playing in October – again.
Boston Red Sox (90-72 in 2011): After a miserable start in 2011, the Red Sox were the best team in the AL – until Labor Day. A talented team (tops in runs scored) stumbled through a stunning September collapse, missing the playoffs. As a consequence, the owners cleaned house, firing the manager and GM. New manager Bobby Valentine takes over and has been the opposite of Terry Francona, working the players hard in spring training. A slow start is unlikely again, but do they have the pitching for the long haul?
They do on paper.
Lefty Jon Lester (15-9, 3.47 ERA) and Josh Beckett (13-7, 2.89) were outstanding last summer until September when they fell apart along with everyone else. They are a terrific one-two lefty/righty punch. The injury to righty Clay Buchholz (back) was the biggest blow to the staff, throwing only 82.2 innings (3.48 ERA), but he’s back and looks to return to this 2010 form (17-7, 2.33). He’s been strong in the spring, a great sign.
Injuries to Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Lackey (both out for 2012) have strained the rotation’s depth, so they are rolling the dice with lefty Andrew Miller, often erratic with walks, and former middle man/closer Daniel Bard. Bard throws 100 MPH and wants to be a starter, but has only two pitches, so don’t pencil him in for 15 wins and 200 innings yet.
The bullpen lost closer Jonathan Papelbon to Philadelphia. Middle man Alfredo Aceves is outstanding, but beyond that there are a lot of question marks. They will be leaning on Franklin Morales, Matt Albers and Rich Hill. Aceves started four games last season, and posted a record of 10-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 55 appearances overall. They really need him or Bard in the pen.
At least the offense has no problems, at No. 1 in baseball last season in runs, on-base percentage and slugging, plus second in batting average! CF Jacoby Ellsbury is in a contact year and was sensational with 39 steals, a .321 average, 32 homers and 105 RBI last year. LF Ryan Sweeny was picked-up from Oakland and is a lefty bat that is made for Fenway park, and will battle Darnell McDonald and Carl Crawford (.255, 11 HRs) for time. Crawford was a colossal bust and is not as well suited to play on natural grass.
Former MVP 2B Dustin Pedroia (21 HRs, .307) is in his prime along with 1B Adrian Gonzalez (.338, 27 HRs, 117 RBI). DH David Ortiz (.309, 29 HRs) continues to hit and they expect 3B Kevin Youkalis (17 HRs) to bounce back from injuries from hernia surgery and case of hip bursitis. Shortstop is a concern with Mike Aviles as they don’t expect young Jose Iglesias to be ready. Catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (16 HRs) turned into a good find and Boston brings in Kelly Shoppach to provide defense behind the plate, which has been a problem for several years.
The Red Sox will be good enough to win 90 again, and if the pitching improves they are a threat to steal the division. But with the new skipper working them hard in March, will they be prone to burning out down the stretch again?
Toronto Blue Jays (81-81 in 2011): The Blue Jays actually have some good young talent, but have the misfortune to be stuck in this brutal division. This offense is very good, at No. 6 in baseball in runs scored last summer, and No. 10 in slugging.
The outfield is the strength of the offense. 31-year-old CF Rajai Davis (34 steals) and DH Edwin Encarnacion (17 HRs, 70 runs) try and get on base for RF Jose Batista, who stroked 43 homers with 103 RBI while hitting .302. That came on the heels of his 2010 season with 54 home runs. Bautista led the majors in OPS (1.056) and walks (132).
1B Adam Lind (26 HRs) provides more sock along with catcher J.P. Arencibia (23 HRs), and SS Yunel Escobar (.290, 11 HRs, 77 runs) was a great acquisition from the Braves. But despite all that power, the Jays finished No. 18 in on-base percentage. 2B Kelly Johnson (.270) and 3B Brett Lawrie (.293) round out the infield. Johnson struggled for the Diamondbacks last season, but in 33 games with Toronto he batted .270 with a .364 on-base percentage and three homers.
While the offense is above average, the pitching staff is young and thin. Only five teams had a higher earned-run average from their starters last season than the Blue Jays at 4.55. They are relying on 27-year-old lefty Ricky Romero (15-11, 2.92 ERA) and erratic Brandon Morrow (11-11, 203 Ks in 179 IP, 69 walks) to anchor the rotation. Beyond that are the youngsters with promise in Kyle Drabek (6.06 ERA), Henderson Alvarez (3.53) and Brett Cecil, the lefty who earned 15 victories in 2010 but was shipped back to Class AAA last April.
The bullpen is deep with veterans Jesse Litsch and Carlos Villanueva (4.04), and they reacquired righty setup man Jason Frasor (2.98). Toronto traded for closer Sergio Santos (Padres) and still has Francisco Cordero, the former Reds’ closer. Toronto will sock the ball at home, but struggle on the road with this suspect pitching and defense. A team to look at over the total, especially at home?
Baltimore Orioles (69-93 in 2011): The Orioles haven’t done much right in a decade. They were in last place last year with a terrible road mark (30-51), No. 14 in baseball in runs scored, No. 19 in on-base percentage and dead last in team ERA (4.89).
The offense has a gem in shortstop J.J. Hardy (30 HRs, 80 RBI), a steal from the Twins. His .990 fielding percentage and .491 slugging percentage led AL shortstops. Throw in Gold Glove catcher Matt Wieters (22 HRs) and center fielder Adam Jones (25 HRs) and the Orioles are surprisingly strong up the middle – a terrific building block.
But second baseman Brian Roberts (concussion) wasn’t on the field much and there are long term concerns. Robert Andino (.263) filled in and was decent, but 3B is a weak spot with Josh Bell and Wilson Betemit. 28-year old Mark Reynonds is on first and belted 37 homers, but just a .221 average, along with 86 RBI, so no one was getting on base in front of him.
RF Nick Markakis (.284, 15 HRs) is solid and won a Gold Glove in right field after going 160 games without committing an error. Jones didn’t win a Gold Glove, but he was outstanding in center field, though left field is wide open with Nolan Reimold I and Jai Miller vying for time.
Then there’s the pitching, which looks brutal. Righthander Jeremy Guthrie was very good the last two seasons, but was traded to Colorado. Tommy Hunter went 3-3 with a 5.06 ERA in 12 games after being acquired from the Rangers, but is no ace. Jake Arrieta (10-8, 5.05 ERA) underwent surgery in August to remove a bone spur from his elbow, though he’s been good in the spring. Lefthander Zach Britton will stay in the rotation after going 11-11 with a 4.61 ERA as a rookie.
That’s why they signed 26-year-old Taiwanese lefthander Wei-Yin Chen, hoping to catch Asian lightening in a bottle. Chen threw 165 innings with a 2.68 ERA and 94/31 K/BB ratio for the Chunichi Dragons in Japan last season and will move right into the Orioles’ rotation at age 26. They also signed Japanese lefthander Tsuyoshi Wada, but he’s a soft thrower and won’t be effective in the rugged AL East parks.
The bullpen is thin with Kevin Gregg (40 walks, 59 innings, 7 blown saves) and former first-round pick Brian Matusz (1-9, 10.65 ERA). Former set-up man Jim Johnson was closing games in September and could remain in that role. They also grabbed three guys from the Rangers in Pedro Strop, lefty Zach Phillips and submariner Darren O’Day.
All in all, they will be closer to 100 losses again than 100 wins.