Best MLB prop bets for 2012
Using advanced projections to bring you the smartest wagers this year
By Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory
ESPN INSIDER
When you look at the history of sports, you'll always find gambling. The laws concerning gambling vary by country and state, but whether legal, illegal or walking that vague line between, where you see sports, you'll tend to find people betting on those sports.
Gambling is designed to be lucrative for the house, so it's hard to finish in the black. In the long run, the house always wins, so when you're gambling against the house, it makes sense to pick and choose your spots. Vegas' lines are usually very accurate -- while sportsbooks set lines to maximize their payout and not necessarily to pick the correct outcome, the wisdom of crowds can be hard to overcome.
Like a lot of other math-and-sports nerds, I like to put some of my disposal income into making a variety of bets. Baseball seasonal prop bets are always fun because they give you a season's worth of anticipation, so I thought I'd share some of my favorite bets for the 2012 season. I used to the ZiPS projection system to highlight wagers where my projections and Vegas have the widest gap to give you what I think are the best MLB prop bets for 2012.
This is one article for which I have some skin in the game -- I've already placed bets on most of these. So if you follow me, at least we're in it together.
Atlanta Braves (Line: 9-2, ZiPS: 2.4-1) or Miami Marlins (Line: 9-2, ZiPS: 3-1) win NL East
The Philadelphia Phillies are the overwhelming favorite in Vegas with the best odds to win the World Series (11-2) and the NL East (9-4). Although they won 102 games last year, this seems way too aggressive a position for the Phillies, suggesting that they're still being overrated by gamblers in general.
Most of the infield has injury concerns, and even last season, the team finished only seventh in offense in a solid hitters' park. Philadelphia will rely on its pitching even more than last year, and bad things frequently happen to pitchers.
As a result, the two other very good teams in the division, the Braves and Marlins, are undervalued at these odds. The Phillies are better, but by nowhere near this degree, so pick the team you like better.
Cleveland Indians win World Series (Line: 60-1)
The Detroit Tigers are a little overrated at this point. Although clearly the favorite in the division for good reasons, the team is star-heavy but doesn't have much in the way of rotation depth. As a result, there are plenty of scenarios in which the Tigers could leave an opening for one of the other AL Central teams. The Indians are in the best position to take advantage of it, with lots of players who have injury or performance question marks but huge upside (Ubaldo Jimenez, Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo). Once the playoffs start, anything could happen.
Vegas is barely giving worse odds for the Chicago White Sox (65-1), Minnesota Twins (75-1) and Kansas City Royals (80-1), so I think the Indians are the best value here if you're looking for a high-payout play.
Colorado Rockies over 81½ wins
Colorado has been almost forgotten this offseason after last year's 73-win campaign, and although Ubaldo is in the rearview mirror, the Rockies have Troy Tulowitzki (watch his injury status) and Carlos Gonzalez. The Rockies got an unusual amount of unexpectedly horrible play from their bench that they won't be saddled with this year and will eventually have Jorge De La Rosa back.
The team also has plenty of upside, with Drew Pomeranz probably already a league-average starter and Nolan Arenado tearing through the minors.
Los Angeles Dodgers under 80 1/2 wins
It's always sunny in Los Angeles, at least it might seem so with Matt Kemp locked up long-term and the ownership upgrade from Frank McCourt to a Magic Johnson-led group. These sunny feelings have carried over, but even with Kemp having the first 10-WAR season in baseball in years and Clayton Kershaw winning the Cy Young, the team won just 82 games in 2011.
The Dodgers churned money furiously this winter, signing a bunch of formerly good players in their mid-30s, but didn't really do anything productive to replace the likely drop-offs from Kemp and Kershaw and the loss of Hiroki Kuroda.
Giancarlo Stanton (Line: 9-1) or Matt Kemp (Line: 18-1) leads NL in home runs
Stanton is young, has game-changing power and could battle Kemp, who is also a good bet at this line. There doesn't figure to be as much competition as last year considering Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols changed leagues, Ryan Howard is injured and Lance Berkman has a lot of mileage on the odometer.
But even if the field is more likely to win the home run title than Stanton and Kemp combined, they're good bets at the given odds.
Zack Greinke under 3.55 ERA
FIP is a better predictor of ERA than ERA is, and the Milwaukee Brewers are bound to be better defensively this year -- they can't be worse than last year, after all.
Last time Greinke had a FIP above 3.55 was his 3.56 in Kansas City in 2008. Once you take into account league offense, he hasn't done it since he was breaking into the majors.
David Freese under 15.5 home runs
So far in the majors, Freese has averaged just 13 home runs per 162 games played.
Even if he's healthy for a full season and gives you the 130 games required to qualify, he's not exactly durable or a young player with high upside. Don't let the postseason heroics fool you; he's not going to hit a lot of homers.
Using advanced projections to bring you the smartest wagers this year
By Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory
ESPN INSIDER
When you look at the history of sports, you'll always find gambling. The laws concerning gambling vary by country and state, but whether legal, illegal or walking that vague line between, where you see sports, you'll tend to find people betting on those sports.
Gambling is designed to be lucrative for the house, so it's hard to finish in the black. In the long run, the house always wins, so when you're gambling against the house, it makes sense to pick and choose your spots. Vegas' lines are usually very accurate -- while sportsbooks set lines to maximize their payout and not necessarily to pick the correct outcome, the wisdom of crowds can be hard to overcome.
Like a lot of other math-and-sports nerds, I like to put some of my disposal income into making a variety of bets. Baseball seasonal prop bets are always fun because they give you a season's worth of anticipation, so I thought I'd share some of my favorite bets for the 2012 season. I used to the ZiPS projection system to highlight wagers where my projections and Vegas have the widest gap to give you what I think are the best MLB prop bets for 2012.
This is one article for which I have some skin in the game -- I've already placed bets on most of these. So if you follow me, at least we're in it together.
The Philadelphia Phillies are the overwhelming favorite in Vegas with the best odds to win the World Series (11-2) and the NL East (9-4). Although they won 102 games last year, this seems way too aggressive a position for the Phillies, suggesting that they're still being overrated by gamblers in general.
Most of the infield has injury concerns, and even last season, the team finished only seventh in offense in a solid hitters' park. Philadelphia will rely on its pitching even more than last year, and bad things frequently happen to pitchers.
As a result, the two other very good teams in the division, the Braves and Marlins, are undervalued at these odds. The Phillies are better, but by nowhere near this degree, so pick the team you like better.
The Detroit Tigers are a little overrated at this point. Although clearly the favorite in the division for good reasons, the team is star-heavy but doesn't have much in the way of rotation depth. As a result, there are plenty of scenarios in which the Tigers could leave an opening for one of the other AL Central teams. The Indians are in the best position to take advantage of it, with lots of players who have injury or performance question marks but huge upside (Ubaldo Jimenez, Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo). Once the playoffs start, anything could happen.
Vegas is barely giving worse odds for the Chicago White Sox (65-1), Minnesota Twins (75-1) and Kansas City Royals (80-1), so I think the Indians are the best value here if you're looking for a high-payout play.
Colorado has been almost forgotten this offseason after last year's 73-win campaign, and although Ubaldo is in the rearview mirror, the Rockies have Troy Tulowitzki (watch his injury status) and Carlos Gonzalez. The Rockies got an unusual amount of unexpectedly horrible play from their bench that they won't be saddled with this year and will eventually have Jorge De La Rosa back.
The team also has plenty of upside, with Drew Pomeranz probably already a league-average starter and Nolan Arenado tearing through the minors.
It's always sunny in Los Angeles, at least it might seem so with Matt Kemp locked up long-term and the ownership upgrade from Frank McCourt to a Magic Johnson-led group. These sunny feelings have carried over, but even with Kemp having the first 10-WAR season in baseball in years and Clayton Kershaw winning the Cy Young, the team won just 82 games in 2011.
The Dodgers churned money furiously this winter, signing a bunch of formerly good players in their mid-30s, but didn't really do anything productive to replace the likely drop-offs from Kemp and Kershaw and the loss of Hiroki Kuroda.
Stanton is young, has game-changing power and could battle Kemp, who is also a good bet at this line. There doesn't figure to be as much competition as last year considering Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols changed leagues, Ryan Howard is injured and Lance Berkman has a lot of mileage on the odometer.
But even if the field is more likely to win the home run title than Stanton and Kemp combined, they're good bets at the given odds.
FIP is a better predictor of ERA than ERA is, and the Milwaukee Brewers are bound to be better defensively this year -- they can't be worse than last year, after all.
Last time Greinke had a FIP above 3.55 was his 3.56 in Kansas City in 2008. Once you take into account league offense, he hasn't done it since he was breaking into the majors.
So far in the majors, Freese has averaged just 13 home runs per 162 games played.
Even if he's healthy for a full season and gives you the 130 games required to qualify, he's not exactly durable or a young player with high upside. Don't let the postseason heroics fool you; he's not going to hit a lot of homers.