On The Hop's 2012 MLB

OnTheHop · Apr 4, 2012

4/4/2012 YTD 0-0 +0 units

Always listed pitchers unless stated otherwise. Wagers will be shown as bet:to win. I'll do my best to provide some rationale for each pick. The more I research baseball and thanks to the help of many of you it seems like playing underdogs in good situations is often the key. I welcome any and all help and constructive criticism. Thanks and GL to all this year.

St. Louis Cardinals +164, .5u to win .82u: Seems like some value here. Lohse has good numbers against Florida/Miami. Johnson is coming back from injury and the Cards are undervalued based on Pujols heading to L.A.

OnTheHop · Apr 5, 2012

4/5/2012 YTD 1-0 +.82 units

Atlanta Braves -110, 1.1u to win 1u: There is too much credit being given to Johan Santana here. He hasn't pitched in a long time and I can't imagine he stays out for too long. The Braves are the more talented team and if Hanson can keep them in the game until they get to the Mets pen this should be a winner.
Pittsburgh Pirates +146, .5u to win .74u: No doubt Philly is the better team. I like this spot for Pittsburgh though. Phillies are beat up and runs will be at a premium. I'm willing to risk it to see if the Pirates can squeeze one out late.
Chicago Cubs +133, .5u to win .67u: Other than the Strasburg factor I have these teams matching up pretty evenly (when factoring in home field). Strasburg is on an innings limit this year and I think the Nats will try and use as few as possible early in the season as they expect to contend later in the year. The Nats pen is solid but without Storen everyone is a little out of place right now. I'll take my chances with some Wrigley magic on Opening Day.
Toronto Blue Jays -120, 1.2u to win 1u: You won't be able to get this kind of value with Toronto and Romero for long. Masterson fell apart towards the end of last year and I don't think he magically fixes that today. Toronto is the much better team even on the road.

OnTheHop · Apr 6, 2012

4/6/2012 YTD 2-3 -.28 units

Recap: Tough to lose 3 one run games, feel like I had Atlanta and Chicago capped correctly and took a shot with Pitt and it didn't work. On the other hand very lucky to win with Toronto who got dominated all day and also should have lost in extras.

Parlay: Texas Rangers -190/Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim -220, 1u to win 1.22u: Going to try this early in the season and see how it works, parlaying two big favorites that I really like to get it to plus money. Not doing it blindly with big favorites, doing it with teams I like in situations I like.
San Francisco Giants EVEN, 1u to win 1u: Lincecum's numbers were actually better than Kennedy's last year and I think Posey makes a big difference for this team. San Fran is very high in my rankings and I'll give them a shot at even money.
Milwaukee Brewers, -122, 1.22u to win 1u: Love Gallardo and the Brewers at home. Don't like Garcia on the road, especially in this park. Also getting some reduced juice as people saw St. Louis on Wednesday night handle the Marlins.

Game(s) I Thought About But Didn't Play: Really like Tampa Bay. However I am a Yankee fan and since I do this for fun I rarely (if ever) play against my team especially on Opening Day. But, I think anytime you can get Tampa at home with Shields on the mound for plus money you should take it.

OnTheHop · Apr 6, 2012

4/6/2012

Correction, the Giants play is .5u to win .5u

OnTheHop · Apr 7, 2012

4/7/2012 YTD 3-5 -.78 units

Recap: Parlay worked nicely. Brewers was a total crap show on my part.

No Plays Today. It's a long season and I'm not forcing any plays.

Game(s) I Thought About But Didn't Play: Milwaukee....love Greinke this season but unsure of what to expect until I see Wainwright a few times. SF/Arizona under....two of the best young pitchers in the game but there are a few other factors pointing to the over.

OnTheHop · Apr 8, 2012

4/8/2012 YTD 3-5 -.78 units

Recap: Guess I should have played Milwaukee. But would have lost the SF/Arizona under. Good decision to stay away.

Washington Nationals/Chicago Cubs U9, -105, .53u to win .5u: Really like this pitching matchup. Zimmerman is underrated and Samardzija has looked good all spring. Somewhat concerned about the wind blowing out to right.
Boston Red Sox +105, 1u to win 1.05u: Bucholz has been strong against Detroit. Do not like the trend I am seeing from Scherzer. Even without Youkilis today I think the Red Sox bats get going and Boston wins a high scoring game.
Atlanta Braves -125, 1.25u to win 1u: Minor has been fantastic all Spring and may be the best of the Braves young staff. Niese has been hit hard in a lot of at bats against the Braves. I think the Braves salvage one today at New York.
Parlay: San Francisco Giants -141/Texas Rangers -171/Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim -180, 1u to win 3.21u: See earlier explanation (from 4/6) re: money line parlays with good pitching advantages.

Game(s) I Thought About But Didn't Play: Tampa Bay...good pitching and momentum advantage with the Rays but as I said earlier, I do this for fun and hate playing against the Yankees.

OnTheHop · Apr 9, 2012

4/9/2012

Marlins/Phillies u7 -120 and NO run 1st inning -135, each one unit.

Wanted to get those posted...recap and writeups to come.

OnTheHop · Apr 9, 2012

4/9/2012 YTD 4-8 -3.53u

Recap: Nats/Cubs was an easy winner. Feel like I should have won the Red Sox with them having a 3 and a 2 run lead over Detroit with Detroit down to their last at bat. Braves and the parlay were losers from the first pitch.

Marlins/Phillies, NO score 1st inning -135, 1.35u to win 1u: This one's already a loooooooser. No need to analyze it further, I'm on a cold streak to start the year.
Marlins/Phillies, U7, -120, 1.2u to win 1u: Like the above, felt good about this one based on the hitter/pitcher matchups and the weather. Already 1-0 at the end of 1 so we'll see what happens.
Mariners, 1st 5 innings, +185, .5u to win 1.11u: Going to take my chances that Darvish takes a little while to settle down and the Rangers struggle with Noesi who they haven't seen before. Texas is too good not to win this game but I think Seattle has a chance in the first 5 and I'll take my chances.
Nationals, EVEN, 1u to win 1u: Pitcher vs. hitter matchups favor the Nats. Nats must feel good about their weekend in Chicago and their comeback effort yesterday that fell just short. Enough for me to try at even money.

OnTheHop · Apr 9, 2012

4/9/2012, Adding One

Cubs, +126, 1u to win 1.26u: Marcum started to slump at the end of last year while Volstad came on strong (credit goes to Sherwood for his outstanding analysis and writeup on this one). Also, Cubs could easily be 3-0 right now having faced three good pitchers (I did think of this but Sherwood articulated it even better). Also like the way Volstad has handled the Cubs bats in the past.

OnTheHop · Apr 9, 2012

It's really hard to believe how bad I am right now. Not sure what to do or change...will have to take another look at things and figure it out.

YTD 4-13 -8.58 units

OnTheHop · Apr 10, 2012

4/10/2012 YTD 4-13, -8.58 units

Cincinnati Reds, +105, 1 to win 1.05: Leake had a nice September and generally a very good year. I'll take the powerful Reds bats even without Phillips at home for plus money.

New York Yankees/Baltimore Orioles, NO run 1st inning, -105, 1.05 to win 1: Garcia pitches very well at Camden and the Yankees usually take a few times through the lineup to figure out a pitcher they haven't seen yet.

OnTheHop · Apr 11, 2012

4/11/12 YTD 4-15 -10.13 units

I am in an awful slide and it would be a good idea to fade these:

Toronto Blue Jays, +111, 1/1.11
San Francisco Giants, -124, 1.24/1
Houston Astros, +115, 1/1.15
Cincinnati Reds, -135, 1.35/1
Tampa Bay Rays, +163, .5/.98

My apologies to anyone who is already on the same side as me.

OnTheHop · Apr 12, 2012

4/12/12 YTD 7-17 -9.24 units

Technically it was a winning day yesterday. Should probably throw a parade for myself.

San Francisco Giants, -127, 1.27/1

Still smart to go the other way. I suck right now.

OnTheHop · Apr 13, 2012

4/13/2012 YTD 8-17 -8.24 units

All I have to do is bet one game a day and win it. Real likely.

Washington Nationals, -140, 1.4/1

Fading is still the best option. Sorry to anyone who likes the Nats.

OnTheHop · Apr 14, 2012

4/14/2012 YTD 9-17 -7.24 units

I won a couple of days in a row and the Earth is still rotating. Strange.

Pittsburgh Pirates, +140, 1/1.4
Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees, NO run 1st inning, -105, 1.05/1
Tampa Bay Rays, +127, 1/1.27

As always, my apologies to anyone who is on the same side(s).

DonQuixote · Apr 14, 2012

keep grindin' my man. You'll hit that hot streak soon enough! Infact,...looks like its starting up haha

OnTheHop · Apr 15, 2012

4/15/2012 YTD 10-19 -8.24 units

DQ: Appreciate the kind words...slight setback yesterday but let's get back at it. No chance I was going to win 4 days in a row....the whole Mayan calendar thing would have happened at that point.

Philadelphia Phillies/St. Louis Cardinals/Los Angeles Dodgers Parlay, 1/2.52
Cincinnati Reds, +102, 1/1.02
Colorado Rockies, -105, 1.05/1
Tampa Bay Rays, -105, 1.05/1

Anyone on any of those 6 teams....as always, my apologies in advance.

HacheMan · Apr 15, 2012

Good Luck Today

OnTheHop · Apr 16, 2012

4/16/2012 YTD 12-21 -6.84 units

Thanks Hache. Still grinding. Let's see what happens today

Tampa Bay Rays, +102, 1/1.02
Oakland A's, +175, 1/1.75

As usual, my apologies to anyone who played either of these teams.

OnTheHop · Apr 21, 2012

4/21/2012 YTD 13-22 -6.82 units

Back from traveling and some nasty stomach virus. Let's take a chance on some of these.

St. Louis Cardinals, -133, 1.33/1
Minnesota Twins/Tampa Bay Rays, Under 7.5, Even, 1/1
Los Angeles Dodgers/Tampa Bay Rays/Washington Nationals/Los Angeles Angels/Philadelphia Phillies Parlay 1/7.95

Standard Disclaimer: My apologies to anyone on any of these as I probably screwed it up nicely for you.

On The Hop's 2012 MLB

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