3 Thursday w/analysis

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HOME TEAM IN CAPS

All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise


Atlanta -104 over N.Y. METS
The cleaning up of their financial mess has begun but the Mets product on the field still has a long way to go. New York did not add a significant piece this offseason, compounded by the fact it lost one of the top free agents in Jose Reyes. They also lost Angel Pagen, Willie Harris and Chris Capuano. The Mets hit the fourth fewest runs in the league last season and as a result, they’ve decided to change the dimensions of Citi Field, bringing in the fences to generate more power. The problem with that is that it will be easier for the opposition too and the Mets rotation instills fear into nobody. Johan Santana will get the Opening Day nod for the Mets after missing all of 2011 due to shoulder surgery. Santana showed no signs of trouble this spring, tossing 18 innings with a 3.44 ERA and a 13:7 K: BB ratio. Manager Terry Collins confirmed that Santana is "healthy," although the Mets expect to monitor his innings. Spring numbers are just that and until Santana shows us something in real time, we’ll gladly fade him and the Mets. His decline was already underway before his surgery, as elevated strand rates hid a declining strikeout rate. He was no longer elite before the surgery and now his health still a huge question mark. Tommy Hanson is a young rotation anchor who has not reached his ceiling yet. His skills surged for the second straight season in 2011, putting him firmly among the game's elite. Hanson was diagnosed with a small tear in his rotator cuff last season and he re-worked his delivery in the off-season but he was solid in the spring with a 2.77 ERA and one walk in 13 frames. The Braves added nothing and lost little in the offseason and will field the same team as last year. They were better than New York last season, they’re much better this season and they have a significant edge on the hill in the opener. Play: Atlanta -104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

PITTSBURGH +157 over Philadelphia

You may see us fading the Phillies quite a bit early on because they’re likely to be overvalued most days, especially at the outset of the season. If things go bad, the marketplace will catch up but for now, they’re overpriced. Roy Halladay gets the opening day start and he needs no introduction. It’s same ol', same ol'. Other than age risk, the downside here just isn't apparent unless one chooses to view that 2H command "slide" as a warning sign. He’s still MLB's ace/workhorse poster boy but he may not get the offensive support he’s going to need. The Phillies parted ways with free agents Raul Ibanez, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson and Roy Oswalt while also trading away backup infielder Wilson Valdez. The Phillies did have their usual big catch over the winter, adding former Boston closer Jonathan Papelbon to the mix but the rest of the moves were designed to fill in for injuries that have already afflicted the roster. The Phillies are built to win another World Series but making the playoffs is by no means a lock given the current state of the offense and the aging pitching staff. The Pittsburgh Pirates teased the baseball world last season when they went into the All-Star break holding a one-game lead atop the National League Central. But everything changed on the night of July 26 when one of the worst calls you'll ever see caused them to lose a six-hour, 19-inning marathon in Atlanta. On the surface it was just another loss, but the Pirates went onto lose 10 of their next 11 games and won only 18 of the season's final 59 games. That said, it showed that there is some talent on this roster and it starts with emerging star Andrew McCutchen. Erik Bedard gets the opening day assignment and when healthy, he can be very good. He’ll make his NL debut here after spending eight years in the AL. He enjoyed his healthiest year since 2007, missing only 31 days after triple-digit days lost in each of the previous three seasons. Bedard can handcuff both RH and LH hitters, he has solid control and averages a strikeout per inning. On opening day in Pittsburgh with Bedard facing hitters that are unfamiliar with him, we’ll gladly take our chances with the Bucs at this overlay. Play: Pittsburgh +157 (Risking 2 units).

Toronto -121 over CLEVELAND

During spring training we see a lot of inflated batting numbers, as major league players face a lot of minor league prospects. The Indians come into the season after some ugly spring numbers that saw them bat a combined .247. This is a team that is relying on Shin-Soo Choo and Travis Hafner to stay healthy and to have productive years. They might just be the most offensively challenged team in the AL. Justin Masterson finally had the breakout in 2011 that many saw coming. That doesn't mean you should bet on a repeat. His strikeout rate decreased for the second straight season. He had a tiny 6% HR/F. His SO rate vs. LHers was a lot lower than the rate he posted against RH batters and he had surgery on his labrum in the off-season. Expect his ERA of 3.21 last season rise significantly to 4.21 or thereabouts. The Blue Jays were tearing it up in the spring and they have so much more confidence coming into the opener than the Indians. Warranted or not, there are some high expectations for the Blue Jays and if the pitching holds up, they really could be contenders. Ricky Romero went 2-0 in the spring with an ERA of 0.00. In 11 innings, he allowed two hits and struck out 10. Historically, he’s been outstanding in the first half with erosion in the second half. Romero also is one of the rare pitchers whose skills improve during the game, as he dominates more the third time through the lineup than the first and second times through. Romero has a great chance to dominate here against a Tribe team that comes in struggling offensively without a single pitch being thrown yet. That’s not the way you want to begin the year. Play: Toronto -121 (Risking 2.42 units to win 2).
 

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Good Luck this mlb season Sherwood! Always appreciate your time and write-ups. Look forward to it daily.
 

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Hey SW... year after year and yoiu are still plugging away... bol this season.
 

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Might as well get this out of the way ,

Saw the same write ups in the service forum ? :)


Good Luck This Year Lieutenant ...........
 

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