Yesterday 1 2 0 -2.08 Units
Last 30 Days 1 2 0 -2.08 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 1 2 0 -2.08 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
HOUSTON +116 over Colorado
Colorado has a strong offensive team but that’s not where its concerns are. Jeremy Guthrie starts the opener followed by 49-year-old Jamie Moyer. It would be difficult to find a weaker opening tandem if you searched the baseball annals. Guthrie comes over from Baltimore where he proved once again that he can be durable and consistent but he offers very little as the ‘ace’ of any staff. Guthrie’s strikeout rate is mediocre and his groundball % is barely adequate. Also troubling is the 110 jacks and .437 slugging % he’s allowed over the past four seasons. Even with support or a division change, at age 33, his most recent seasons are now benchmarks. As for the Astros, only hardcore fans will recognize more than a few of the names on Houston's every day lineup. With the impending move to the AL, the team is prepping a young, somewhat talented squad and there is enough talent to compete against mediocre opposition. Wandy Rodriguez gets the opening day start and he’s deserving of it. His prior reputation of inconsistency is a thing of the past. Four years of xERAs in the 3.60-3.70 range and the ERA results to match confirm his reliability. Colorado might be playing a lot of catch-up this season and will be much more appealing taking back a tag than laying one. That applies here. Play: Houston +116 (Risking 2 units).
TAMPA BAY +118 over N.Y. Yankees
If this game were played at Yankee Stadium, the price would make sense but in Tampa, it’s just wrong. These two split 18 games right down the middle a year ago and both will likely battle all summer long for the AL East title. In the “not exactly shocking news” category, NYY manager Joe Girardi has declared CC Sabathia his Opening Day starter. In an effort to stay strong throughout the year, Sabathia came into camp with a bit less weight that he was carrying last season. Going into 2011, it looked like he might be declining slightly – lefties hit him harder than usual in 2010, and his command had dropped for three straight years. But he recovered his command and dominated LH hitters in his usual fashion. He was great last year and his value has never been higher. Sabathia has averaged 240 IP over the last five years and while his skills were once again elite last year, the mileage on his arm could catch up to him. However, this isn’t about wagering against Sabathia. This is about wagering on the Rays at home with James Shields on the hill, a combination that might not be a dog again all year. For Shields, it was almost a carbon copy, skills-wise of 2010 but with very different results. You can count on his skills, reliability says that. His opening day price suggests that the odds makers believe the public will they be looking at 2011 as lucky with 2010 in the back of their minds. Don’t buy into 2010 numbers. Shields is for real with great control, a high strikeout rate and 16 games won that could have easily been 20+. Definite overlay. Play: Tampa Bay +118 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 1 2 0 -2.08 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 1 2 0 -2.08 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
HOUSTON +116 over Colorado
Colorado has a strong offensive team but that’s not where its concerns are. Jeremy Guthrie starts the opener followed by 49-year-old Jamie Moyer. It would be difficult to find a weaker opening tandem if you searched the baseball annals. Guthrie comes over from Baltimore where he proved once again that he can be durable and consistent but he offers very little as the ‘ace’ of any staff. Guthrie’s strikeout rate is mediocre and his groundball % is barely adequate. Also troubling is the 110 jacks and .437 slugging % he’s allowed over the past four seasons. Even with support or a division change, at age 33, his most recent seasons are now benchmarks. As for the Astros, only hardcore fans will recognize more than a few of the names on Houston's every day lineup. With the impending move to the AL, the team is prepping a young, somewhat talented squad and there is enough talent to compete against mediocre opposition. Wandy Rodriguez gets the opening day start and he’s deserving of it. His prior reputation of inconsistency is a thing of the past. Four years of xERAs in the 3.60-3.70 range and the ERA results to match confirm his reliability. Colorado might be playing a lot of catch-up this season and will be much more appealing taking back a tag than laying one. That applies here. Play: Houston +116 (Risking 2 units).
TAMPA BAY +118 over N.Y. Yankees
If this game were played at Yankee Stadium, the price would make sense but in Tampa, it’s just wrong. These two split 18 games right down the middle a year ago and both will likely battle all summer long for the AL East title. In the “not exactly shocking news” category, NYY manager Joe Girardi has declared CC Sabathia his Opening Day starter. In an effort to stay strong throughout the year, Sabathia came into camp with a bit less weight that he was carrying last season. Going into 2011, it looked like he might be declining slightly – lefties hit him harder than usual in 2010, and his command had dropped for three straight years. But he recovered his command and dominated LH hitters in his usual fashion. He was great last year and his value has never been higher. Sabathia has averaged 240 IP over the last five years and while his skills were once again elite last year, the mileage on his arm could catch up to him. However, this isn’t about wagering against Sabathia. This is about wagering on the Rays at home with James Shields on the hill, a combination that might not be a dog again all year. For Shields, it was almost a carbon copy, skills-wise of 2010 but with very different results. You can count on his skills, reliability says that. His opening day price suggests that the odds makers believe the public will they be looking at 2011 as lucky with 2010 in the back of their minds. Don’t buy into 2010 numbers. Shields is for real with great control, a high strikeout rate and 16 games won that could have easily been 20+. Definite overlay. Play: Tampa Bay +118 (Risking 2 units).
