Looking good on Morrow vs Jimenez under 8. Hopefully that's a sign that I'm back to normal, but in anycase, here are my full detailed write-ups for today. Definitely some potential on today's slate...
Miami Marlins @Cincinnati Reds (BestBet)
RickyNolasco vs Mat Latos
OVER 8
Froma personal standpoint, these are two pitchers I excelled with last year, asRicky Nolasco was one of my best pitchers, being 9-1 in his over/unders in2011, while I was 7-4-1 with Latos. However, this is 2012, with both pitchersin different situations, so we’ll see if that holds up.
Nolascois someone who’s just kind of there. He has his ups and downs, as proven againlast year when he was great in the first half of the season (3.70 ERA, 1.28WHIP), but horrendous in the second half (6.21 ERA, 1.58 WHIP). I think in2012, we’ll see more of that second half Nolasco, as his career numbers havenever been that great to begin with, despite flashing hints that he can be anupper echelon pitcher. And oh yeah, he was much worse on the road (5.31 ERA)compared to at home (4.10 ERA) last season. Hopefully that trend continues, atleast in his first start of the campaign.
Meanwhile,Latos is a guy I’ve always loved since he burst onto the scene in ’09, but Iabsolutely hated this trade for him going to Cincinnati. Playing inpitcher-cozy Petco Park certainly contributed to his mostly dominant tenurewith the Padres, and unfortunately, I see him having somewhat of a decline yearthis season, pitching at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark in Cincy. Ibelieve his downfall, even if it’s not permanent, may begin tonight against aMarlins lineup that is very due.
Thatbrings me to my next point - the Marlins offense. They are WAY too talented tobe floundering around like this, and when a potentially great lineup isstruggling like this to begin a season, they usually bust out of it in onegame. In my opinion, that happens in this game, and we get an over as a result.
PhiladelphiaPhillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
CliffLee vs Jeff Karstens
UNDER 6.5
Don’tbelieve me if you want, but Jeff Karstens of all people was my best pitcher tobet over/unders on last year, as I somehow went 10-0 in his starts. Why? He’s avery one-dimensional, albeit consistent, pitcher. Furthermore, if you remember,Vegas was showing him no love in terms of lines, registering them relativelyhigh, all the while he was constantly delivering quality start after qualitystart in the Pittsburgh rotation. I don’t think he’s a great pitcher oranything, with a lack of overpowering stuff, but I think he chimes in with asolid start here.
Onthe flip side, I was an unspectacular 4-4 on Cliff Lee games, which isdisappointing considering how money Lee usually is. As one of the game’s besttop-rotation hurlers, Lee is almost always a shoe-in for a quality start. Ilike this spot here for him to begin the season against a [so far] punchlessPittsburgh offense that is probably doubting themselves after a miserabletwo-hit night on Opening Day. I believe Lee will continue the Philadelphiapitching onslaught, as we get an under… although I MUST warn you, I’m veryunhappy that the line is 6.5 instead of 7. If the line was 7, the under wouldprobably be my best bet. But unfortunately, at 6.5, we’re not protected in theevent of a very possible 5-2/4-3 outcome. Hopefully we don’t get bit by thatpotential result. In any case, this game should be low-scoring.
Chicago WhiteSox @ Texas Rangers
JakePeavy vs Derek Holland
OVER 9.5
Thisisn’t a huge bet so I’ll make the write-up for this game short and sweet,mainly focusing on one important stat - the Rangers own Jake Peavy (Which isexactly why Vegas made the line a half run higher than it should be).
Lookat his two combined starts versus the Rangers last year; they roughed him upfor nine runs in nine innings combined, while posting 11 hits (Three homers)and three walks. When he faced Texas in 2010, they beat him around for six runsin six innings. Overall, Peavy is just not the same pitcher he was in SanDiego, and I believe that is a downward trend that will continue this season.
Asfor Derek Holland, I’m a lifelong Rangers fan who has always thought he’s beena bit overrated (Considering the contract extension we gave him). Does he havethe ability to reach the next level? He very well might. But from a personalopinion, despite looking extremely dominant at times (League-leading fourshutouts in ’11), I just think he’s merely a very solid pitcher prone to havinga bad game once in awhile. While that may not happen tonight, it’s possible,but we’re mainly banking on Peavy to implode anyway. Wait a bit to see if theline drops to 9; even if it doesn’t, you gotta go over.
Other 4/7/12 MLBOver/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Beckettvs Fister OVER 7.5
Lirianovs Hunter OVER 9
**May Add MoreOver/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
