Yesterday 2 1 0 +2.26 Units
Last 30 Days 4 4 0 +0.54 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 4 4 0 +0.54 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
Los Angeles +109 over SAN DIEGO
The Dodgers are 3-0 while the Padres are 0-3 and that first win becomes harder to come by with each passing loss. The Padres trailed yesterday’s game 5-0 before rallying to tie it but don’t be fooled by that. They had four hits the entire game and they’re hitting a combined .126 over their first three games. Not only are they losing, but they’re already pressing at the plate. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have 26 hits and 17 runs in the first three and come into this one in a great state of mind. The pitching matchup of Aaron Harang versus Clayton Richard certainly doesn’t favor the Padres either. Last season, shoulder surgery ended Richards’ year in July. Before that he had poor control and a 5.30 ERA on the road. So if Petco helps him, so be it, his lack of consistent command puts success in comfy parks at risk too and with marginal raw stuff, there's no strikeout uptick on the horizon either. Use his xERA of 4.34 as your guide. Aaron Harang faces the team he played for last season where he revived his career and posted an ERA of 3.05 at Petco. Clearly, luck played a big part in Harang's revival. But his xERA history doesn't vary all that much over the past four years and provides a better roadmap for what to expect. Having said all that, we’d much prefer to take back a tag with the Dodgers and Harang than spotting one with the struggling Padres and that stiff they’re sending out today. Play: Los Angeles +109 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis -103 over MILWAUKEE
The Brewers finally won a game yesterday when Zack Greinke shutout the Cardinals. Unfortunately for them, Randy Wolf is not Zack Greinke. Only twice in his career, 2002 and 2009, did Wolf manage an ERA beneath 3.50 and a WHIP under 1.20 and in eight of his 13 seasons he has had an ERA above 4.00 and a WHIP higher than 1.30. Last season, Wolf outpitched his xERA for third straight year. That’s some good fortune that will eventually run out. His skills are just middling, especially the past two years. His quality starts/disaster starts split reveals a pitcher more adept at avoiding failure than exhibiting real dominance. Beware this inning-eating Wolf in an above-average starter's clothing. Lance Lynn is another one of those potentially solid starters that the Cardinals seem to find every year. Lynn posted a 2.56 xERA and showed sound skills in 35 relief innings in 2011. In those 35 frames, he struck out 40, had a 57% groundball rate and he carried those skills into a successful spring. He has much more upside than down and he’s a better option than Wolf. Play: St. Louis -103 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 4 4 0 +0.54 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 4 4 0 +0.54 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
Los Angeles +109 over SAN DIEGO
The Dodgers are 3-0 while the Padres are 0-3 and that first win becomes harder to come by with each passing loss. The Padres trailed yesterday’s game 5-0 before rallying to tie it but don’t be fooled by that. They had four hits the entire game and they’re hitting a combined .126 over their first three games. Not only are they losing, but they’re already pressing at the plate. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have 26 hits and 17 runs in the first three and come into this one in a great state of mind. The pitching matchup of Aaron Harang versus Clayton Richard certainly doesn’t favor the Padres either. Last season, shoulder surgery ended Richards’ year in July. Before that he had poor control and a 5.30 ERA on the road. So if Petco helps him, so be it, his lack of consistent command puts success in comfy parks at risk too and with marginal raw stuff, there's no strikeout uptick on the horizon either. Use his xERA of 4.34 as your guide. Aaron Harang faces the team he played for last season where he revived his career and posted an ERA of 3.05 at Petco. Clearly, luck played a big part in Harang's revival. But his xERA history doesn't vary all that much over the past four years and provides a better roadmap for what to expect. Having said all that, we’d much prefer to take back a tag with the Dodgers and Harang than spotting one with the struggling Padres and that stiff they’re sending out today. Play: Los Angeles +109 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis -103 over MILWAUKEE
The Brewers finally won a game yesterday when Zack Greinke shutout the Cardinals. Unfortunately for them, Randy Wolf is not Zack Greinke. Only twice in his career, 2002 and 2009, did Wolf manage an ERA beneath 3.50 and a WHIP under 1.20 and in eight of his 13 seasons he has had an ERA above 4.00 and a WHIP higher than 1.30. Last season, Wolf outpitched his xERA for third straight year. That’s some good fortune that will eventually run out. His skills are just middling, especially the past two years. His quality starts/disaster starts split reveals a pitcher more adept at avoiding failure than exhibiting real dominance. Beware this inning-eating Wolf in an above-average starter's clothing. Lance Lynn is another one of those potentially solid starters that the Cardinals seem to find every year. Lynn posted a 2.56 xERA and showed sound skills in 35 relief innings in 2011. In those 35 frames, he struck out 40, had a 57% groundball rate and he carried those skills into a successful spring. He has much more upside than down and he’s a better option than Wolf. Play: St. Louis -103 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
