The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets - April 8, 2012

2012 MLB O/URecord:6-9
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42(Proof and documentation available upon request)

4-2yesterday, including winning both my top bets in Nolasco vs Latos over 8 andLee vs Karstens under 6.5. Hopefully Saturday is the day that has shot me backinto my normal MLB over/under ways, and I believe it is. The “season opening”variable is gone for the most part, making things more mundane, which, in turn,makes over/unders MUCH easier to bet on. Here are my bets for today…


PhiladelphiaPhillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Best Bet)
VanceWorley vs James McDonald
UNDER 7.5

Ohhow I was REALLY hoping the line for this game was 8. My absolute worst casescenario for this game is 5-3, and I feel pretty confident about it. After all,James McDonald is one of my favorite pitchers in the game (You’ll noticethroughout the season that I love a lot of strange, random pitchers. BudNorris, JA Happ, and Luis Mendoza fall in this category as well), and I wasactually 11-5-3 betting on McDonald over/unders last year.

WhileI do have a good grasp on J-Mac, I must warn you the reasons not to take thisbet. He had a pretty terrible Spring Training, just like last year, which ledto a bad start to his 2011 season. However, he ultimately escaped thosestruggles and went on to have an above-average final three-fourths of theseason, with the help of good strikeout numbers. It’s definitely very possiblethat he encounters the same early-season struggles based on his woeful Spring,especially since he rarely pitches past the 7th inning, even when he’sin top form, but like I said, I know McDonald very well and feel he could atleast chime in with a solid start. Luckily for us, the Phillies offense hasstruggled mightily out of the gate thus far.

Thesame could be said for the Pittsburgh lineup, which has put together three runsin two games. Vance Worley is someone I followed admirably last year for theamazing start he had to his career, although I was only 2-2 in betting hisover/unders from 2011 so I don’t know him as well as I do with J-Mac. Inaddition, he had a suspect Spring (Ugly .329 opposing batting average), but Ifeel like Worley will ultimately be one of those guys that just pitchesconsistently and knows how to win.

Thisis more of a vibe bet than anything, despite each pitcher’s poor Spring Trainingperformance, but hopefully, bad hitting will outweigh any potential badpitching. Most importantly, McDonald hopefully puts to rest this trend of himgetting out to bad starts in April, and I believe he will. Again, I really praythat we are not bitten by my worst case scenario, 5-3, but since that’s as badas it’ll get, play the better odds and go under.


Other 4/8/12 MLBOver/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
LanceLynn vs Randy Wolf OVER 8.5
GavinFloyd vs Matt Harrison OVER 9

**MayAdd More Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**

I am curious as to why I see so many people on the white sox/rangers over? Pregame shows 89% are over 9. Harrison is an underrated pitched and Floyd is a solid starter. What is the reasoning?

The first 2 games went under despite high totals...usually in a series of high totals at least one game goes over.

Wow I could not have been anymore 100% right about Worley vs McDonald under 7.5... both pitchers dominate the opposing lineups, it's 2-1 in the 7th, and then the relievers come in and give up five runs, FOUR of which are UNEARNED. Can't get anymore of a bullshit break than that in an over/under, ridiculous loss.

As for Floyd vs Harrison over 9, it's mainly because of Floyd. I've always thought he was an overrated pitcher, and moocow brings up a great point that I consider sometimes, that being the Law of Averages. This is a series between two high octane offenses with mostly suspect pitching, yet the first two games thus far have been unders by a considerable margin. Therefore, the odds are against people taking the under, as it is more unlikely for every game in a series like this to be all of one variety, or in this case, the under. The evidence backs it up, as Floyd is very prone to getting rocked on the road. And believe me, I know Harrison is underrated. As a Ranger fan, I loved him when we got him in the Teixeira/Feliz trade years back, but he could easily give up a couple of runs at least. For me personally, it's not a huge bet - just a minor one.

Ever make 5 inning bets?
Quite a few players like it, due to what just happened.

Coaster said:

Ever make 5 inning bets?
Quite a few players like it, due to what just happened.

Click to expand...

Eh, I've thought about it but it's not the same. I'm such a creature of habit with everything I do so since I've been only used to betting full-length games, it'd take a lot for me to get into a new routine. You just gotta shake off real bad breaks like this one and move onto to the next day.