5 Monday w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise


San Francisco/COLORADO over 9½
The Giants haven’t got off the mattress yet but their offense is better and scoring runs is not going to be a battle every inning like it was last year. They were swept in Arizona, losing all three games by a run but they did score 14 times. They may have to score 14 times tonight because Barry Zito starts. Zito went 3-4 with a 5.87 ERA in 54 IP last season. You would think that $126M could buy at least one year of good command but the answer is still "no." Foot injury in April cost him 2½ months. He came back for six starts, then foot and ankle woes cost him the rest of season, save for a few ineffectual September relief innings. Has been regressing dramatically every year since ’05 and the only reason he’s even near a baseball diamond is because the Giants have to pay his ridiculous contract. Rockies should get seven or more tonight and they may need it too. Jhoulys Chacin comes with more risk in 2012 than he did at this time last year. Signs of 1H growth evaporated in an epic 2H skills collapse with overall season a major step backward. He issued too many walks and Coors is unforgiving of this flaw. Chacin is still young but 2H WHIP shows the downside potential. One or both of these fragile pitchers are likely to get lit up here, especially Zito and it’s going to take a whole lot of bad luck to keep this one from going over. Play: San Francisco/Colorado over 9½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

CHICAGO +121 over Milwaukee

Milwaukee comes in with a 1-2 record and they didn’t look very good in its two losses, getting outscored 20-8. The Cubs also went 1-2 but could have easily swept the Nationals after blowing two saves in three games. The Cubbies also had a tough opening set of pitchers to face in Stephen Strasburgh, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman, yet they could’ve swept. They should find the going much easier here against Shaun Marcum. Marcum battled a shoulder injury much of this spring, and while he appeared to be healthy late in the spring, be wary of a low pitch count this early in the season. He only pitched seven innings in the spring where he went 0-1 in two starts with a 6.14 ERA. We saw many warning signs with Marcum near the end of last year that included a dip in strikeout and groundball rates and that’s a sure sign of a pitcher that could be losing it. Chris Volstad was the complete opposite of Marcum in that he was coming on the second half, posting a 3.37 xERA. Volstad also had a healthy groundball/fly-ball ratio of 51%/31% and if he can get a little tougher on lefties he could be in for a good season and certainly has more appeal taking back a tag than Marcum does spotting one. Play: Chicago +121 (Risking 2 units).

Washington +101 over N.Y. METS

Although it’s a small tag, the Nationals just might offer up the best value of the day. Edwin Jackson makes his Nationals debut after winning a World Series with the Cardinals last year. Jackson has already pitched for six teams so a change in scenery is not going to faze him one bit. A solid xERA history, durability and very good stuff make him worth watching again. However, this one is all about fading Mike Pelfrey. Following a spring in which he allowed 21 ER in 22 IP, Pelfrey was recently informed by manager Terry Collins that he was at risk of losing his starting role. Pelfrey provided ERAs of 3.72 and 3.66 in 2008 and 2010 despite never achieving a BPV** (for explanation of BPV see under these write-ups) above 40. Don't count on another season of luck because if he repeats his 2011 skills, he won't just lose a rotation spot, he might be out of the league entirely. Pelfrey has no upside whatsoever and has to be considered one of the riskiest pitchers in the league. Pelfrey favored over Jackson is a mistake. Play: Washington +101 (Risking 2 units).

Chicago +101 over CLEVELAND

The Indians had a rather eventful opening day weekend with the Blue Jays in that they played an extra nine innings in the first two games, blew a three-run, ninth inning lead in the opener and held on for their first win yesterday. The Indians hit .153 in the series. Josh Tomlin has had great success at home in his career with a W/L record of 13-4. Overall, he went 12-7 last year with a pedestrian 4.25 ERA. The key to this pretty-good year was dialing in the control (21 walks in 165 innings), which makes you sort of nervous when you consider he only struck out 89. How many guys not named Maddux can sustain control like that for more than one year? Add to that an August elbow strain and the anxiety heightens a bit more. And oh yeah, he's a fly-ball pitcher with an awful GB/FB ratio of 28%/50%. Tomlin is a prime “blow-up” candidate. Chris Sale is an electric lefty that has the tools to make the transition from relief to starter. He keeps the ball on the ground (53% GB% in the 2H of 2011), has shown good command and has no lefty-righty splits. In 71 innings of relief a year ago, Sale whiffed 79 batters. These are exactly type of skills you want to wager on when looking at an underdog. The South Side offers up all the value in this one. Play: Chicago +101 (Risking 2 units).

Seattle +205 over TEXAS

There are surprises every year in every sport and a 3-1 start for the Mariners makes them very worthy of a close look taking back a tag like this one. The M’s have 38 hits over their first four games while batting .266 and that’s not bad at all. A winning frame of mind gives them even more appeal. Seattle will send out Hector Noesi and there’s a lot to like about him. He has a long history of elite command in the minors. He had a 118/15 K/BB in 116 IP in Single-A. He followed that up with a 153/28 K/BB in 141 IP between High-A and Triple-A in 2010 and he showed flashes of dominance with the NYY last season. His 93.3 mph fastball velocity suggests we can't dismiss his strikeout upside nor his solid spring in which he posted a 1.50 ERA in 12.1 innings. On January 18, the Rangers signed Japanese starting pitcher Yu Darvish. In 2011, Darvish posted a 1.44 ERA in 232 innings. His ERA has remained below 2.00 each season since 2007. That’s nice, it really is but these overhyped Japanese pitchers have been nothing but a bust and until we see something from Darvish that says he won’t be, we’ll gladly step in against him. Players that couldn’t make it in the Majors go over to play in Japan. Players that hit below the Mendoza line in the Majors go over to Japan and hit .300. It’s a competitive and entertaining league with many skilled players but it’s not the major leagues. Playing for the Rangers, Darvish has a great chance to win games but in no way does he warrant being a 2-1 favorite without ever throwing a major-league pitch. Play: Seattle +205 (Risking 2 units).

**BPV (Base Performance Value)

This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors. In tandem with a pitcher's strand rate, it provides a complete picture of the elements that contribute to a pitcher's ERA, and therefore serves as an accurate tool to project likely changes in ERA. BENCHMARKS: A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
 

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