Kentucky Derby Thoughts & Plays

elevenblack301 · Apr 9, 2012

:howdy: Well, it's that time of the year again, boys and girls. Less than 4 weeks away now, so I just wanted to get a head start on some thoughts and opinions that are out there.

These past few weeks have seen a few interesting outcomes in some of the Road to the Derby prep races.

I will be giving you most of the 'stats' again that I use to 'cap' this race and hopefully we can pull together all of our 'smarts' and bring the big one home on the first Saturday of May.

Be back soon with some of my early leans..... Have a great day !:think2:

elevenblack301 · Apr 12, 2012

:howdy: OK, let's look at the currnet contenders and their Dosage Numbers....... These numbers use to be a standard in throwing out some contenders for this race, but for the past ten years or so, some of the winners have not fit in the " typical " form ( DI < 4.00 and CD < 1.25 ).

.......................................................DI....................CD......

Alpha.-------------------------------------1.67--------------0.44

Castaway---------------------------------0.67--------------0.67

Creative Cause---------------------------1.43--------------0.29

Currency Swap---------------------------3.00--------------0.72

Daddy Long Legs-------------------------2.43--------------1.11

Daddy Nose Best-------------------------2.43--------------0.83

Done Talking-----------------------------2.33--------------0.67

Drill---------------------------------------2.27--------------0.56

Dullahan----------------------------------4.20--------------0.92

El Padrino---------------------------------2.60--------------0.75

Gemologist--------------------------------2.73--------------0.89

Hansen------------------------------------3.50--------------0.89

I’ll have Another--------------------------2.11--------------0.50

Isn’t He Clever----------------------------3.00--------------1.00

Liason-------------------------------------3.00---------------0.60

Mark Valeski------------------------------3.00---------------0.88

My Adonis---------------------------------2.67---------------0.50

Optimizer----------------------------------3.24---------------0.81

Prospective--------------------------------3.36---------------0.88

Reveron-----------------------------------3.00----------------0.69

Rousing Sermon--------------------------2.60-----------------0.72

Sabercat-----------------------------------2.73----------------0.79

Secret Circle-------------------------------2.53----------------0.60

Take Charge Indy-------------------------3.00----------------0.66

Trinniberg----------------------------------3.00----------------1.00

Union Rags---------------------------------2.14---------------0.77

Went The Day Well------------------------1.91---------------0.56

Wrote---------------------------------------1.08---------------0.15

............................................................................................................

richporter · Apr 13, 2012

Gemologist !

SqueezetheJuice · Apr 14, 2012

Creative Cause, Union Rags, Gemologist

SalD'Amore · Apr 14, 2012

Does anyone know if 10 cent supers will be available on Derby Day?

wabashwonders · Apr 14, 2012

Sal D'Amore said:
Does anyone know if 10 cent supers will be available on Derby Day?

No, here is the menu right from Churchill site...

DERBY DAY - SATURDAY, MAY 05, 2012

Race Post Time Wagering
1 10:30AM WPS EX DD P3
2 11:00AM WPS EX DD P3 P4
3 11:30AM WPS EX DD P3
4 12:04PM WPS EX DD P3 P4
5 12:38PM WPS EX DD P3
6 1:19PM WPS EX DD P3 P6
7 2:08PM WPS EX DD P3 P5
8 2:59PM WPS EX DD P3 P4
9 3:51PM WPS EX DD P3
10 4:46PM WPS EX DD P3 P4 (Woodford Reserve Turf Classic)
11 6:24PM WPS EX DD P3 SH5 (Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands)
12 7:20PM WPS EX DD
13 7:50PM WPS EX
NOTE: Trifecta and Superfecta wagering on all races that qualify under Kentucky statutes. Daily Double and Super High-5 wagers are $1 minimum straight bets. On Oaks Day and Derby Day the Superfecta is a $1.00 minimum wager. Trifecta, Pick-3, Pick-4 and Pick-5 wagers are $.50 minimum straight bets. The Pick-6 is a $2 minimum wager. The Exacta is a $2.00 minimum straight bet with $1.00 boxes and wheels.

wabashwonders · Apr 15, 2012

I'd say you can add Bodemeister to your list now after that tremendous performance in the Arkansas Derby yesterday. He and Dullahan both looked good yesterday...

elevenblack301 · Apr 15, 2012

wabashwonders said:
I'd say you can add Bodemeister to your list now after that tremendous performance in the Arkansas Derby yesterday. He and Dullahan both looked good yesterday...

Yes, they both looked better than good...... I think it is going to be wide open with the favorite not more than 3-1..... will be posting some more of my 'numbers' that I break down soon..

Thanks for all of the comments............ 3 weeks to go...

wabashwonders · Apr 16, 2012

Also read where there will be an also eligible list up to 4 horses this year. First time since 1984.

tread · Apr 17, 2012

elevenblack301 said:
Yes, they both looked better than good...... I think it is going to be wide open with the favorite not more than 3-1..... will be posting some more of my 'numbers' that I break down soon..

Thanks for all of the comments............ 3 weeks to go...

There's no way the favorite will even approach anything like 3-1. Big Brown was a HUGE favorite a few years back and was only a single click below 5-2.

This year you will have 3 horses taking tons of money in Gemologist, Bodemeister, and Union Rags, a some other very solid horses just a shade behind them in terms of betting public recognition in Creative Cause, Alpha, Dullahan, Hansen, and Take Charge Indy, who will all take significant money as well.

The board here were more likely resemble that of the year Super Saver won, where I believe the favorite went off something like 6-1. Unless there are significant injury or other developments in the upcoming weeks, I'd be surprised if any horse is less than 5-1 in this field. This is as difficult a field as there has ever been and contains a much larger number than normal of similarly matched horses. Trip handicapping will play a much larger role than normal this year. It should be a great race.

HuskerFan1 · Apr 17, 2012

LEXINGTON, KY. — Mike Battaglia is stumped.

Three weeks from the Kentucky Derby, the Churchill Downs oddsmaker said he doesn’t “have a clue,” what horse he will make the favorite for the Run for the Roses.

In a year with several upsets and no dominating performances, Battaglia said the only sure thing is the program favorite is likely to be 5-1 or 6-1 on Derby Day.

“It’s so crazy,” Battaglia said. “There’s some quality there; I mean, it’s not like they are a bunch of bums. But it’s just so tough. It will probably come down to who is training the best.”

Battaglia said the likely four choices to be the favorite include Wood Memorial winner and undefeated Gemologist, Blue Grass Stakes winner Dullahan, Arkansas Derby winner Bodemeister and Union Rags, the beaten Florida Derby favorite.

“It will be one of the four,” Battaglia said, “but the favorite has to be 5-1 or 6-1. I can’t see it being less than that. I don’t see how.”

trytrytry · Apr 17, 2012

tread said:
There's no way the favorite will even approach anything like 3-1. Big Brown was a HUGE favorite a few years back and was only a single click below 5-2.

This year you will have 3 horses taking tons of money in Gemologist, Bodemeister, and Union Rags, a some other very solid horses just a shade behind them in terms of betting public recognition in Creative Cause, Alpha, Dullahan, Hansen, and Take Charge Indy, who will all take significant money as well.

The board here were more likely resemble that of the year Super Saver won, where I believe the favorite went off something like 6-1. Unless there are significant injury or other developments in the upcoming weeks, I'd be surprised if any horse is less than 5-1 in this field. This is as difficult a field as there has ever been and contains a much larger number than normal of similarly matched horses. Trip handicapping will play a much larger role than normal this year. It should be a great race.

The record for highest-priced favorite isn’t an old one. Two-time champion Lookin At Lucky holds the title after breaking from unlucky post 1 in 2010 at odds of 6.30 to 1. Before Lookin At Lucky, the longest-price was 6.00-1 on Harlan’s Holiday in 2002. super saver was not a favorite and was 7.5 - 1 well backed Borel horse as I recall..

trytrytry · Apr 17, 2012

this will be a GRAET DERBY...I might just play the 3 and hope for the best...Attending my 13th Derby in a ROW!

cocktailsnlongshots+ · Apr 17, 2012

trytrytry said:
this will be a GRAET DERBY...I might just play the 3 and hope for the best...Attending my 13th Derby in a ROW!

god bless you man...i went to one a few years back when Giacomo won...i can't stand crowds...and i can't stand inept people who have never been to the races clogging up teller lines w/their $2 win bets on the 'pink' horse....i think i would need a freaking taser if i ever showed up on derby day ever again...enjoy

BernieVegas · Apr 17, 2012

I'll predict the favorite of this Derby will be 4-1 or worse. The oddsmaker Mike Battaglia has a very difficult job in this years Derby edition. The good thing about this years Derby is even the show money could get you 100% on your money because they'll be at least nine horses getting alot of show play at the windows. 100% on my money on a show wager, the bettor can't go wrong and it will be a reality...

Yours in Winners
BernieV

trytrytry · Apr 18, 2012

cocktailsnlongshots said:
god bless you man...i went to one a few years back when Giacomo won...i can't stand crowds...and i can't stand inept people who have never been to the races clogging up teller lines w/their $2 win bets on the 'pink' horse....i think i would need a freaking taser if i ever showed up on derby day ever again...enjoy

smart phone and twin spires account..no lines needed..love the madness, the crowds, the rich on one side the masses on the other...great stuff...

cocktailsnlongshots+ · Apr 19, 2012

trytrytry said:
smart phone and twin spires account..no lines needed..love the madness, the crowds, the rich on one side the masses on the other...great stuff...

yeah i hear ya...u sound like me w/the gadgets and accounts...sit at the 1/8 pole@belmont and the backyard at the spa with the ipad and nyra account buzzing away...cheers

elevenblack301 · Apr 19, 2012

:howdy: Thanks for all of the comments, much appreciated..... Now I want to start posting some of the 'stuff' that I consider when I am trying to 'cap' one of these big races. I know some of these stats or facts might not be of use to some of you, but just showing what I like to look at......

First off let's start with the best times of the 1 1/8 mile races the contenders have run....... Yes, I know that these times will vary because of the track at which the race was run, the track conditions, the weather, the pace, the traffic, the etc...etc...etc.... but it is a number that I consider ..........

Hansen...................................1:47.4

Dullahan.................................1:47.4

Creative Cause........................1:47.4

I’ll Have Another.....................1:47.4

Take Charge Indy....................1:48.1

Daddy Nose Best.....................1:48.2

Bodemeister...........................1:48.3

Isn’t He Clever........................1:48.3

Union Rags.............................1:48..4

Reveron.................................1:48.4

Prospective............................1:49.0

El Padrino..............................1:49.1

Liason...................................1:49.3

Stirred Up.............................1:50

Mark Valeski..........................1:50

Hero Of Order........................1:50

Rousing Sermon....................1:50.2

Sabercat..............................1:50.2

Secret Circle.........................1:50.2

Gemologist...........................1:50.4

Alpha...................................1:50.4

Went The Day Well................1:51.1

News Pending.......................1:51.3

Done Talking........................1:53.4

Morgans Guerilla...................1:54.0

No 1 1/8 Races...............

..........Daddy Long Legs, Trinniberg

..........On Fire Baby, Golden Ticket

elevenblack301 · Apr 19, 2012

trytrytry said:
this will be a GRAET DERBY...I might just play the 3 and hope for the best...Attending my 13th Derby in a ROW!

It truly is an amzing day at the races, been to about 15 of them myself, many years ago.... spent all day Friday and Saturday at Churchill..... have a great time.......

elevenblack301 · Apr 19, 2012

:think2: Ok now let's look at the Beyer figures of these contenders........

Highest Beyer Figures To Date

Bodemeister............................108 *
Secret Circle............................102
Creative Cause.........................102
El Padrino................................100
Daddy Nose Best......................100 *
Trinniberg.................................99
On Fire Baby.............................99 *
Isn’t He Clever..........................99
Gemologist ..............................98 *
Alpha.......................................98 *
Dullahan...................................98 *
Mark valeski..............................98
Hansen.....................................96 *
Take Charge Indy......................96
I’ll Have Another ......................96
Union Rags...............................95
Reveron...................................93 *
Went The Day Well....................92 *
Sabercat..................................92 *
Liason.....................................92
Optimizer.................................91
Rousing Sermon.......................91
Hero Of Order..........................90
Prospective..............................90
Golden Ticket..........................89 *
News Pending..........................88
Stirred Up...............................87 *
Done Talking...........................85 *
Morgans Guerilla .....................84 *

No Beyer for Daddy Long Legs

( The " * " denotes that this Beyer was for the last race run for that horse )

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