The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets - April 9, 2012

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 7-11
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42 (Proof and 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)

Disappointing1-2 day yesterday, including getting absolutely screwed by BS in my Worley vsMcDonald under 7.5 best bet. Both pitched dominant, it was 2-1 in the 7th,and the relievers completely blew it. I can accept a bullpen implosion, but notwhen FOUR of the runs are unearned due to two errors that shouldn't be happening at the Major League level. I mean, that’s ridiculous, but in over/under betting, it happens and you try to move on. The best you can hope for is a productive performance the next night, and then just like that, thebad break is out of your mindset.

Thatsaid, here are today’s bets. Mondays have always been my best night of the weekfor over/unders, which sounds weird, but it’s a trend I noticed a couple ofyears ago, and when I did the full stat breakdown of my numbers last year, Isaw that I was 68-35-6 (My worst day, for those wondering, was Saturdays, whenI was 44-47-3). So strongly consider taking these bets, as I know I’m on the vergeof turning it around and getting back to my usual 57-percent winning level…


Atlanta Braves @Houston Astros (BestBet)
Brandon Beachy vs JA Happ
UNDER 8

Unfortunately,if you caught this bet late, the line has dropped at most places to 7.5, whichleaves you vulnerable to a loss in the event of a very possible 6-2 outcome. Asa result, I wouldn’t recommend this as a big bet for you. However, if youcaught the line at 8, or still can, then I suggest you make this a very bigbet.

First,let me inform all of you that JA Happ is another one of those random pitchersthat I’m absolutely obsessed with (Other Cat Guys include Bud Norris, Danny Duffy, James McDonald, Duane Below, among many others). At the same time, Imust caution you that last year, I bet on more Happ games than any other starting pitcher, and the final tally was a very mediocre 10-12 record bettingon his over/unders in 2011, although I ended the season strong with him afterhe came back from Triple A, when he seemingly reverted back to his old solid form. Due to my love for Happ, it’s possible my bias is interfering with logic.After all, Happ had a pretty ugly spring (5.79 ERA, 1.98 WHIP… yikes). On thecontrary, I stand by what I’ve been saying about Happ ever since he came toHouston a couple of years ago - this guy is very good and very intelligent onthe mound, so much so that I still believe he can become a legitimatetop-rotation pitcher (Not necessarily an ace, but a No. 2 or real efficient No.3 starter). Hopefully he starts things off right, unlike last year, which hecan easily do against the currently-bumbling Braves bats.

Onthe other side is Brandon Beachy, who also had an uneffective Spring. As thedays pass, though, I’m starting to notice a lot of pitchers who had Springs thatthey’d rather forget about end up starting the season with a quality start, soI’m confident the same trend will ring true for Beachy. In the importantlandscape of things, Beachy had a very nice rookie campaign in ’11, compiling a7-3 record with a 3.68 ERA and very delightful 1.21 WHIP (And in case you’rewondering, I was 6-2 on Beachy 2011 over/unders). Those are terrific MajorLeague numbers, and something I believe he can somewhat duplicate in hissophomore season. I don’t think he’ll be exactly as good as that, but probablyend up with a similar statline. In his ‘12 debut, he draws thenot-so-intimidating Astros offense, which should bode well for our chances onthe under. If you still can get it at 8, make it your best bet.


Los AngelesAngels of Anaheim @ Minnesota Twins
CJ Wilson vs Nick Blackburn
OVER 7.5

Interestingspot here for CJ Wilson, as he makes his long-awaited debut (At least for me,being a lifelong Ranger fan that is curious to see what he does in anotheruniform) with the Angels. In addition, he’s doing it in a position he’s not alltoo familiar with, that being as the technical No. 4 starter in the Anaheimrotation. Wilson is a guy I feel I know pretty well, having been the ace ofthese past couple of seasons for Texas, and he’s a very mind-driven pitcher. Bythat, I mean that more than most pitchers, situations, whether they be in thegame or off the field, can really dictate how he performs. That’s not a bad thing,as I feel Wilson is one of the more mentally strong pitchers in baseball. Lookat how much he learned from Cliff Lee - he basically went out there the dayafter a Lee start and duplicated his dominance. I just love Wilson’s make-up asa pitcher, and despite going to the rival Angels, I wish him well, and I knowhe’ll continue to thrive. While he officially appears as the No. 4 starterhere, I don’t think he’s going to be the one that completely yields the over.

NickBlackburn, who somehow has the honor of starting a team’s home opener, is not agood pitcher. The fact that his ERA was as low as 4.49 last year ismind-boggling, considering his opposing batting average was over .300, and hisWHIP was a ridiculous 1.60. How the Twins let him make 25-plus starts everyyear… I have no idea. The bottom line is that he’s a very hittable pitcher,which should make it easy for a very hungry and angry Angels lineup to at leastgarner four or five runs off him alone. Furthermore, the Angels are coming offa very disappointing 1-2 home-opening stand against the Royals, in this veryspecial season in which they have sky-high expectations. The Twins are alreadyreeling, as a lot of people predicted, so look for the Angels to make astatement as early as game one of this series. I’m looking at a 7-4 kinda game.


Other 4/9/12 MLBOver/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
LuisMendoza vs Tom Milone UNDER 8
FelixDoubront vs Henderson Alvarez OVER 9
JakeWestbrook vs Homer Bailey OVER 9
HectorNoesi vs Yu Darvish OVER 9

**MayAdd More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
 

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