Yesterday 1 4 0 -6.10 Units
Last 30 Days 6 9 0 -5.56 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 6 9 0 -5.56 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
BALTIMORE +121 over N.Y. Yankees
The Yanks are overpriced on most days and we see another example of that here. Freddy Garcia as road chalk is an automatic fade almost every time. While it looks like Garcia’s ERA improved, thank a high strand percentage (76%) for that. Garcia’s xERA shows the skills were similar to 2010 in which he posted an ERA of 4.64. At this middling level, that's not a good thing. He's lost velocity each of the past three years, the dominant starts are dwindling, and line-drive % is creeping up. Those are signs that Garcia is too big a risk. Wei-Yin Chen is a wildcard and probably a low-upside one at that. He was a good pitcher in Japan, but might profile more as a lefty soft-tosser at this level. He showed excellent command during spring, which is a trademark of Japanese pitchers and overall he went 2-2 in 20 spring innings with an ERA of 3.60. Let’s call it what it is. This is both teams’ fifth starter. They are both risky but the difference here is that Chen has not been seen, he’s taking back a tag, the Orioles are 3-1 and batting .295 and they’re at home. Play: Baltimore +121 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +106 over OAKLAND
The battle for fifth starter for the A’s came down to Jarrod Parker and Graham Godfrey and Godfrey won out by way of elimination because Parker was that bad. Godfrey is a sinkerball pitcher that had a low ERA and good command at AAA. He made a few starts as an injury replacement for the big club last season and while he got his feet wet he didn't really see enough time to be tested. At this point, he's spring training rotation fodder after allowing 19 hits and 10 runs in 17 spring innings for an ERA of 5.09. Danny Duffy had a 5.64 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 105 IP with KC in 2011 so his value is low. His skills with KC weren't great but they were encouraging and he has the arsenal to be a good one. Armed with a 93 mph fastball, he's no lefty soft-tosser. Duffy has been working on a cut fastball this spring and as a result, he struck out 17 in 15 spring innings while walking just four. Duffy could be a big time sleeper and against the light hitting A’s in a pitchers park, he has a great chance to succeed. Play: Kansas City +106 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 6 9 0 -5.56 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 6 9 0 -5.56 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
BALTIMORE +121 over N.Y. Yankees
The Yanks are overpriced on most days and we see another example of that here. Freddy Garcia as road chalk is an automatic fade almost every time. While it looks like Garcia’s ERA improved, thank a high strand percentage (76%) for that. Garcia’s xERA shows the skills were similar to 2010 in which he posted an ERA of 4.64. At this middling level, that's not a good thing. He's lost velocity each of the past three years, the dominant starts are dwindling, and line-drive % is creeping up. Those are signs that Garcia is too big a risk. Wei-Yin Chen is a wildcard and probably a low-upside one at that. He was a good pitcher in Japan, but might profile more as a lefty soft-tosser at this level. He showed excellent command during spring, which is a trademark of Japanese pitchers and overall he went 2-2 in 20 spring innings with an ERA of 3.60. Let’s call it what it is. This is both teams’ fifth starter. They are both risky but the difference here is that Chen has not been seen, he’s taking back a tag, the Orioles are 3-1 and batting .295 and they’re at home. Play: Baltimore +121 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +106 over OAKLAND
The battle for fifth starter for the A’s came down to Jarrod Parker and Graham Godfrey and Godfrey won out by way of elimination because Parker was that bad. Godfrey is a sinkerball pitcher that had a low ERA and good command at AAA. He made a few starts as an injury replacement for the big club last season and while he got his feet wet he didn't really see enough time to be tested. At this point, he's spring training rotation fodder after allowing 19 hits and 10 runs in 17 spring innings for an ERA of 5.09. Danny Duffy had a 5.64 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 105 IP with KC in 2011 so his value is low. His skills with KC weren't great but they were encouraging and he has the arsenal to be a good one. Armed with a 93 mph fastball, he's no lefty soft-tosser. Duffy has been working on a cut fastball this spring and as a result, he struck out 17 in 15 spring innings while walking just four. Duffy could be a big time sleeper and against the light hitting A’s in a pitchers park, he has a great chance to succeed. Play: Kansas City +106 (Risking 2 units).
