2012 MLB O/URecord: 9-15(This is a fluke, I 100% promise all of you I will turn this around)
2011 MLB O/URecord: 366-270-42 (Proof and 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)
2-4 yesterday, with my best bet Beachy vs Happ under 8 going over because of four Atlanta errors that ruined Beachy’s performance and led to three unearned runs.I was watching the game and he was in cruise control up until that point, which unfortunately changed the whole complexion of the game. The difficult part was getting a quality start from Mr. Happ, which I called for and got, but unfortunately, it was all for naught in the grand scheme of the under. Mondayshave historically been my best day with over/unders so going 2-4 yesterday isvery, very surprising and upsetting. But you just gotta move on to the nextday. Here are today’s picks…
St. LouisCardinals @ Cincinnati Reds (Best Bet)
Kyle Lohse vs Mike Leake
UNDER 9
Firstof all, it’s painfully obvious that Vegas anticipates an over with a high linelike that. I mean, why would a pitching matchup of Kyle Lohse, who has become atop-rotation pitcher for the defending World Series Champions, and Mike Leake,coming off his own solid 2011 performance, command the same exact line in Cincyas last night’s matchup of Jake Westbrook and Homer Bailey? In any case, I’m goingto at least try to take advantage of their seemingly wrong decision here and gounder.
Lohseis coming off a fantastic first start against the Marlins (One I was admittedly wrong on, as I had the over of 7 like most people), and I believe thatconfidence should carry over into a less-pressure situation like the Reds. Ialso believe that Lohse is most likely no fluke, as it seems his 2011 successwasn’t just a one-year thing. He also may mentally be in a very good place,carrying the ace tag for these defending champion Cardinals, and as a result,could continue to pitch like one.
His opposing hurler, meanwhile, enjoyed some great success last year of his own.Leake was 12-9 with a 3.86 ERA, but the number that jumps out at me the most ishis 1.17 WHIP. In addition, he also had a very good 118/38 K:B ratio, a strong indicator that he just knows how to pitch. These numbers would seem to point toa repeat year for Leake in 2012, and I think he’ll get it started right in his first2012 start, or at least well enough in a game with room for error that featuresa high under of 9. This isn’t one of my bigger best bets, but still a solid oneon this Tuesday.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians
Phillip Humber vs Jeanmar Gomez
OVER 7.5
Ah,the 2012 season debut of Jeanmar Gomez, a guy who caught my eye right away whenI saw him make his debut at the end of the 2010 season. Unfortunately for him,that fine pitching at the end of ’10 may serve as his own personal ceiling, inthat I don’t think he’ll exceed that at any point in his career. Gomez has thepotential to be a fine bottom-of-the-rotation starter in the Major Leagues, butthis is a spot I don’t really like him in, especially in a game with such a low over/under of 7.5
Onthe other side, it’s Philip Humber, who impressed in his first full season inthe bigs in 2011, putting together a 9-9 record with a 3.75 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.He also had a good spring, amassing a 3.18 ERA and 0.82 WHIP, and you figurethis guy is the main reason why Vegas set this line a half-run or full-runlower than it should be.
My main reasoning for taking this over is I believe the White Sox offense is duefor an outburst, and have a very good opportunity to do that against Gomez.Furthermore, all of their games thus far have been unders so you could factorin the Law of Averages against a very vulnerable starting pitcher. It might betough to scratch out a few runs against Humber, who’s primed for another solidseason, but this isn’t a huge bet or anything, and the line’s smaller than itshould be. Therefore, small bet on the over.
Other 4/10/12MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Danny Duffy vs Graham Godfrey UNDER 7.5
Freddy Garcia vs Wei-Yin Chen OVER 9.5
Blake Beaven vs Neftali Feliz UNDER 9.5 (I’m telling you, Blake Beaven is my No. 1sleeper this year. He will be fantastic in 2012)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/URecord: 366-270-42 (Proof and 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)
2-4 yesterday, with my best bet Beachy vs Happ under 8 going over because of four Atlanta errors that ruined Beachy’s performance and led to three unearned runs.I was watching the game and he was in cruise control up until that point, which unfortunately changed the whole complexion of the game. The difficult part was getting a quality start from Mr. Happ, which I called for and got, but unfortunately, it was all for naught in the grand scheme of the under. Mondayshave historically been my best day with over/unders so going 2-4 yesterday isvery, very surprising and upsetting. But you just gotta move on to the nextday. Here are today’s picks…
St. LouisCardinals @ Cincinnati Reds (Best Bet)
Kyle Lohse vs Mike Leake
UNDER 9
Firstof all, it’s painfully obvious that Vegas anticipates an over with a high linelike that. I mean, why would a pitching matchup of Kyle Lohse, who has become atop-rotation pitcher for the defending World Series Champions, and Mike Leake,coming off his own solid 2011 performance, command the same exact line in Cincyas last night’s matchup of Jake Westbrook and Homer Bailey? In any case, I’m goingto at least try to take advantage of their seemingly wrong decision here and gounder.
Lohseis coming off a fantastic first start against the Marlins (One I was admittedly wrong on, as I had the over of 7 like most people), and I believe thatconfidence should carry over into a less-pressure situation like the Reds. Ialso believe that Lohse is most likely no fluke, as it seems his 2011 successwasn’t just a one-year thing. He also may mentally be in a very good place,carrying the ace tag for these defending champion Cardinals, and as a result,could continue to pitch like one.
His opposing hurler, meanwhile, enjoyed some great success last year of his own.Leake was 12-9 with a 3.86 ERA, but the number that jumps out at me the most ishis 1.17 WHIP. In addition, he also had a very good 118/38 K:B ratio, a strong indicator that he just knows how to pitch. These numbers would seem to point toa repeat year for Leake in 2012, and I think he’ll get it started right in his first2012 start, or at least well enough in a game with room for error that featuresa high under of 9. This isn’t one of my bigger best bets, but still a solid oneon this Tuesday.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians
Phillip Humber vs Jeanmar Gomez
OVER 7.5
Ah,the 2012 season debut of Jeanmar Gomez, a guy who caught my eye right away whenI saw him make his debut at the end of the 2010 season. Unfortunately for him,that fine pitching at the end of ’10 may serve as his own personal ceiling, inthat I don’t think he’ll exceed that at any point in his career. Gomez has thepotential to be a fine bottom-of-the-rotation starter in the Major Leagues, butthis is a spot I don’t really like him in, especially in a game with such a low over/under of 7.5
Onthe other side, it’s Philip Humber, who impressed in his first full season inthe bigs in 2011, putting together a 9-9 record with a 3.75 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.He also had a good spring, amassing a 3.18 ERA and 0.82 WHIP, and you figurethis guy is the main reason why Vegas set this line a half-run or full-runlower than it should be.
My main reasoning for taking this over is I believe the White Sox offense is duefor an outburst, and have a very good opportunity to do that against Gomez.Furthermore, all of their games thus far have been unders so you could factorin the Law of Averages against a very vulnerable starting pitcher. It might betough to scratch out a few runs against Humber, who’s primed for another solidseason, but this isn’t a huge bet or anything, and the line’s smaller than itshould be. Therefore, small bet on the over.
Other 4/10/12MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Danny Duffy vs Graham Godfrey UNDER 7.5
Freddy Garcia vs Wei-Yin Chen OVER 9.5
Blake Beaven vs Neftali Feliz UNDER 9.5 (I’m telling you, Blake Beaven is my No. 1sleeper this year. He will be fantastic in 2012)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
