Yesterday 1 1 0 +0.12 Units
Last 30 Days 7 10 0 -5.44 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 7 10 0 -5.44 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
St. Louis +114 over CINCINNATI
12:35 PM EST. It’s only six games in but the Cardinals are 5-1 and batting a collective .310 while the Reds are 2-3 and batting a collective .201. Jaime Garcia is coming off a nice start in Milwaukee in which he went six full, allowing just two runs on five hits. It was a typical start for Garcia, who saw his ERA climb a little bit last year but skill wise, we saw an improvement over his stellar rookie year. Garcia maintained a strong strikeout rate and a high groundball rate of 53%. Combined last season with his first start this year and there is no reason to believe that his growth won’t continue. Johnny Cueto was arguably one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball last year. The skills say that we should lower our expectations for 2012. A three-year trend of WHIP improvement and an increased number of ground balls is attractive, but not when it is accompanied with a three year strikeout rate decline, it loses its appeal. A close look at the ERA/xERA (2.31/3.57) differential along with a fortunate hr/f shows his risk is high. Don't bet on the same results for 2012. That’s not to say Cueto can’t succeed. Every team would love to have this guy but he’s just not as good as those numbers from a year ago suggest. Taking back a tag, the red-hot Cardinals get the call. Play: St. Louis +114 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco -118 over COLORADO
Go figure. The Giants start the season 0-3 with Tim Lincecum, Madsion Bumgarner and Matt Cain starting. Subsequently, they win their first game with Barry Zito starting and that’s what it took to get them going. We now step in on a pitching mismatch and an underlay to go with it. Lincecum allowed six hits and five runs in 5.1 innings in his season debut but so what. He was unlucky in that some balls found holes and that’s all there is to it. He actually pitched fantastic without the results. Lincecum struck out seven batters and walked just one. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball ratio in that game was 63%/6%/31% and those are numbers that will win you 20 games plus. Jeremy Guthrie won his first start but don’t count on too many more wins from this stiff. In his season debut against Houston, Guthrie walked three and struck out one and posted an xERA of 5.09. Guthrie has shown poor skills for years and now at the age of 33, he’s taking his act to Coors Field. This is a disaster waiting to happen and it likely begins here. Win or lose, this is a cheap price to be paying for this mismatch. Play: San Francisco -118 (Risking 2.36 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 7 10 0 -5.44 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 7 10 0 -5.44 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
St. Louis +114 over CINCINNATI
12:35 PM EST. It’s only six games in but the Cardinals are 5-1 and batting a collective .310 while the Reds are 2-3 and batting a collective .201. Jaime Garcia is coming off a nice start in Milwaukee in which he went six full, allowing just two runs on five hits. It was a typical start for Garcia, who saw his ERA climb a little bit last year but skill wise, we saw an improvement over his stellar rookie year. Garcia maintained a strong strikeout rate and a high groundball rate of 53%. Combined last season with his first start this year and there is no reason to believe that his growth won’t continue. Johnny Cueto was arguably one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball last year. The skills say that we should lower our expectations for 2012. A three-year trend of WHIP improvement and an increased number of ground balls is attractive, but not when it is accompanied with a three year strikeout rate decline, it loses its appeal. A close look at the ERA/xERA (2.31/3.57) differential along with a fortunate hr/f shows his risk is high. Don't bet on the same results for 2012. That’s not to say Cueto can’t succeed. Every team would love to have this guy but he’s just not as good as those numbers from a year ago suggest. Taking back a tag, the red-hot Cardinals get the call. Play: St. Louis +114 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco -118 over COLORADO
Go figure. The Giants start the season 0-3 with Tim Lincecum, Madsion Bumgarner and Matt Cain starting. Subsequently, they win their first game with Barry Zito starting and that’s what it took to get them going. We now step in on a pitching mismatch and an underlay to go with it. Lincecum allowed six hits and five runs in 5.1 innings in his season debut but so what. He was unlucky in that some balls found holes and that’s all there is to it. He actually pitched fantastic without the results. Lincecum struck out seven batters and walked just one. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball ratio in that game was 63%/6%/31% and those are numbers that will win you 20 games plus. Jeremy Guthrie won his first start but don’t count on too many more wins from this stiff. In his season debut against Houston, Guthrie walked three and struck out one and posted an xERA of 5.09. Guthrie has shown poor skills for years and now at the age of 33, he’s taking his act to Coors Field. This is a disaster waiting to happen and it likely begins here. Win or lose, this is a cheap price to be paying for this mismatch. Play: San Francisco -118 (Risking 2.36 units to win 2).
