The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - April 11, 2012

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 11-15 (This is a fluke. I promise all of you I will turn this around easily)
2011 MLB O/URecord: 366-270-42 (Proof and 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)

A bitter 2-1 yesterday, considering I should’ve been 3-1 if my Duffy vs Godfrey under wasn’t called in the 8th inning. Unbelievable, as that game was a 100% under, but nothing you can do. Best bet Lohse vs Leake under hit easily, as did my Beaven vs Feliz under. As I said, Beaven is my No. 1 sleeper this year and is groomed to be a top-rotation pitcher in the Seattle organization. Only loss was by a half run in the Garcia vs Chen over, which actually should’ve won if Ibanez’s bases-clearing double doesn’t go into the stands for a ground-rule double, which prevented the speedy Granderson from scoring to make it 6-4. Ugh. But you take it one day at a time, hoping to string as many winning days together as possible, so let’s keep it going as I try to get back to my 57+% winning level…


Atlanta Braves @Houston Astros
Randall Delgado vs Wandy Rodriguez
UNDER 8

Very glad the line went up from 7.5 to 8 overnight, as that helps protect us in the event of a 5-3 outcome. At the same time, it’s a little off that this game is set at 8, whereas arguably a weaker matchup of Tommy Hanson vs Kyle Weilandgets the 7.5 treatment, as it did last night. Either way, we should get fine performances from both starters in this game.

Randall Delgado is a highly-touted prospect for those not familiar with him, and he looked above-average in his first taste of the bigs last year, putting togethera 1-1 record with a remarkable 2.83 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. His strikeout numbers and strikeouts-to-walks ratio weren’t great, but given how he looked overalllast season, I like his chances to take the next step, and he has a niceopportunity to get out on the right foot against the Astros. At the moment, the Houston lineup is overachieving (Although, as I said, Carlos Lee is still alegit slugger and JD Martinez is one of the most underrated players in the game with his very expanded skillset), but you could use the Law of Averages here in saying their offense gets shut down for the first time in this series.

Facing him will be the Astros’ ace, Wandy Rodriguez, who, as predicted, participated in an over in his first start vs Jeremy Guthrie, despite giving up zero earnedruns (Three unearned) in six-plus innings of work. Something that plagued Rodriguez last year, even en route to a great statline, was his awful April, but in 2012, it looks like he’ll get out to a nice start based on how he was throwing the ball last week vs a solid Colorado offense. Considering the Bravesstruggle against lefties (As evident when they didn’t look so good against J.A.Happ) so hopefully Wandy will take advantage of that and churn in a quality start. Let’s get that under.


Chicago WhiteSox @ Cleveland Indians
John Danks vs Justin Masterson
UNDER 7

After Justin Masterson’s start on Opening Day, it appears I was wrong about him beinga Rick Helling-type ace. In other words, he’s here to stay and was no one-year fluke in 2011. In that opener against an above-average Toronto lineup,Masterson threw eight-brilliant innings of two-hit ball with ten strikeouts. It was a real masterpiece, although unfortunately for him, Chris Perez would go onto blow it in the ninth. Even so, I think Masterson will pick up where he leftoff and continue to establish himself as perhaps a legitimate Major League ace.He’s got a good chance of doing that today against the White Sox, who have onlycontributed to under bets all season - they haven’t had one over yet.

That brings me to John Danks, a guy who I think it’s pretty obvious already hit his ceiling. And with that belief, I don’t think he’ll ever duplicate his bestseasons from 2008-2010, when he put together a very solid mid-three’s ERA. Istill think he can be a serviceable top-of-the-rotation pitcher, but more asone of those durable guys who is glorified for eating up innings (Ex. Livan Hernandez) and not as much for dominating opposing batters. Despite that mindset, Danks can still give us a pretty solid performance and contribute to apotential under in this contest. One key stat we have going for us in thisunder is that he’s a significantly better pitcher during the day throughout his career (3.29 ERA, 1.27 WHIP)as opposed to at night (4.45 ERA, 1.32 WHIP), which I believe is a significantsplit for any pitcher, as the time of day definitely can contribute to a pitcher’s mindset. Hopefully he’s as effective as he was on Opening Day in his fine startin Texas.

Oh yeah, and the wind will be blowing in 14 MPH… that’s certainly a nice condition to have on your side. Go under here.


Los AngelesAngels of Anaheim @ Minnesota Twins
Jered Weaver vs Carl Pavano
UNDER 7.5

There’s one reason why I like this under - Jered Weaver. After arguably the most dominating performance on Opening Day of any ace, Weaver takes the ball for the second time in 2012, against the thus-far punchless offense in Minnesota. It’sonly a small sample size of a few games but this Twins offense looks bad. Theonly player that’s looked fine for them so far is Justin Morneau, but he can’tdo much if no one gets on base for him. Josh Willingham has also been alright,but this offense collectively just stinks right now. Very unlikely they get it back on track versus Mr. Weaver, one of the game’s best aces right now.

Theonly thing that could potentially keep this from staying under is Carl Pavano. I don’t mean to hate on Pavano here, as this is mainly because I know that one big signature offensive outburst from the Angels is coming sooner than later.Hopefully it doesn’t happen here, and maybe it won’t, as Pavano actually looked pretty good on Opening Day (7 innings, 4 runs is very acceptable to me). We know Weaver should give us a dominant starter; it’s all on what Pavano can doin his innings of work. But since we have one surefire thing in Jered, considerthe under here.


Other 4/11/12MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Bruce Chen vs Brandon McCarthy OVER 7.5 (Wait to see if the line drops to 7. Lookslike it might)
Tim Lincecum vs Jeremy Guthrie OVER 8.5 (It’s a little fishy a Lincecum line isthis high, even if it’s at Coors)


**MayAdd More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
 
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Forgot to label Delgado vs Rodriguez under 8 as my best bet for the evening. But make sure you get in Danks vs Masterson under 7 as well, as it starts in ten minutes
 

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