Yesterday 0 0 0 0.00 Units
Last 30 Days 7 12 0 -9.80 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 7 12 0 -9.80 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
L.A. Angels +142 over N.Y. YANKEES
1:05 PM EST. The Yankees open up their home portion of the schedule in front of a packed house but so what. Every game is packed and the opposition is usually more jacked up than the home side. Besides, this season, New York is more beatable than they’ve been in previous years with an older, slower and a less intimidating lineup. The Yanks opened the season by losing three straight to the Rays and followed that up by sweeping the Orioles to even their record at 3-3. What the Rays and Angels have in common that the Orioles do not is good pitching. Ervin Santana appeared to be on his way to becoming one of the game's elite pitchers after his stellar 2008 season. Elbow ligament problems derailed him in 2009 but he has rebounded to establish himself as a solid workhorse. While he has not yet fully reclaimed his elite 2008 skills, Santana recovered in 2011, while displaying at least one new skill, an emerging GB tendency, reversing his historical flyball orientation to record a higher GB% than FB% for the first time. Santana posted a strong BAA reliability rating. He seems on his way to becoming a different type of pitcher than in 2008 and those changes suggest there could be even more improvement to come. At the end of the 2011 season, there were some questions about the back-end of the Yankee’s rotation. One solution was the signing of free agent Hiroki Kuroda but we’re not so sure. Kuroda switches from the NL to the AL and from pitcher-friendly Chavez Ravine to hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. Yankee Stadium enhances runs by 8%, right-handed HR’s by 17%, left-handed jacks by a ghastly 43% and Kuroda does not have a high groundball tendency. While strong run support will provide him with plenty of chances to garner wins, his ERA is heading north and it’s also worth noting that the Rays got to him for eight hits and six runs in 5.2 frames. Overlay. Play: Los Angeles +142 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +109 over BOSTON
2:10 PM EST. The Red Sox also open their home schedule in this matinee game and bring their 1-5 record with them. Last year’s collapse seems to have carried over into this season and until we see something different, this is a great fade team because like the Yankees, Boston is usually overpriced. Josh Beckett was slaughtered in his season debut when he surrendered five, count ‘em, five jacks to the Tigers. The Red Sox lost that game 10-0. While we don’t put a lot of weight on one start, we saw signs of a Beckett decline last year and it’s hard to ignore five home runs allowed. Beckett had a dramatic fly-ball % rise a year ago that saw his fly-ball ratio go from 34% in 2010 to 45% last year. That’s significant and it appears as though it was no aberration. David Price’s strikeout growth is supported by raw stuff. His “average” fastball now sits at 95 MPH. Outstanding command and skills against both right-handed and left-handed batters supports that he's more than a LH feaster. Trends say he's an ace with even more growth potential with projections being a 2.50 ERA with 250 K’s. Play: Tampa Bay +109 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit -109 over CHICAGO
2:10 PM EST. The Tigers come in with a 5-1 record and their only loss came when they blew a 2-0 ninth inning lead against the Rays. They should be 6-0 and it’s no surprise, as they’re one of the favorites to win the World Series. The White Sox are one of the favorites to lose 100 games or more. Matt Scherzer was whacked in his opening day start in that bizarre 13-12 win over Boston. Jim Leyland said Scherzer started to battle a sinus infection over the weekend and it really affected him. It sounds as though Scherzer is feeling much better coming into this one. Scherzer went 2-2 with a 1.24 ERA and 27 strikeouts in four starts (29 innings) against Chicago last season. It seems like the ideal opponent for Scherzer to get back on track against. Jake Peavy has been on the DL in each of the last four years. He’s coming off a decent start in Texas in which he allowed three runs on eight hits in six innings in a very tough park but it was one start. Peavy went 7-7 with a 4.92 ERA in 112 IP with the South Side last season. His ERA and fly-ball ratio is trending ugly and even in that first game we saw a groundball rate of just 20%. The pitchers don’t always dictate the play. When we can spot less than a dime on the Tigers over the White Sox in a year in which one is projected to win 100 games while the other is projected to lose that many, we’ll gladly take our chances. Play: Detroit -109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 7 12 0 -9.80 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 7 12 0 -9.80 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
L.A. Angels +142 over N.Y. YANKEES
1:05 PM EST. The Yankees open up their home portion of the schedule in front of a packed house but so what. Every game is packed and the opposition is usually more jacked up than the home side. Besides, this season, New York is more beatable than they’ve been in previous years with an older, slower and a less intimidating lineup. The Yanks opened the season by losing three straight to the Rays and followed that up by sweeping the Orioles to even their record at 3-3. What the Rays and Angels have in common that the Orioles do not is good pitching. Ervin Santana appeared to be on his way to becoming one of the game's elite pitchers after his stellar 2008 season. Elbow ligament problems derailed him in 2009 but he has rebounded to establish himself as a solid workhorse. While he has not yet fully reclaimed his elite 2008 skills, Santana recovered in 2011, while displaying at least one new skill, an emerging GB tendency, reversing his historical flyball orientation to record a higher GB% than FB% for the first time. Santana posted a strong BAA reliability rating. He seems on his way to becoming a different type of pitcher than in 2008 and those changes suggest there could be even more improvement to come. At the end of the 2011 season, there were some questions about the back-end of the Yankee’s rotation. One solution was the signing of free agent Hiroki Kuroda but we’re not so sure. Kuroda switches from the NL to the AL and from pitcher-friendly Chavez Ravine to hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. Yankee Stadium enhances runs by 8%, right-handed HR’s by 17%, left-handed jacks by a ghastly 43% and Kuroda does not have a high groundball tendency. While strong run support will provide him with plenty of chances to garner wins, his ERA is heading north and it’s also worth noting that the Rays got to him for eight hits and six runs in 5.2 frames. Overlay. Play: Los Angeles +142 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +109 over BOSTON
2:10 PM EST. The Red Sox also open their home schedule in this matinee game and bring their 1-5 record with them. Last year’s collapse seems to have carried over into this season and until we see something different, this is a great fade team because like the Yankees, Boston is usually overpriced. Josh Beckett was slaughtered in his season debut when he surrendered five, count ‘em, five jacks to the Tigers. The Red Sox lost that game 10-0. While we don’t put a lot of weight on one start, we saw signs of a Beckett decline last year and it’s hard to ignore five home runs allowed. Beckett had a dramatic fly-ball % rise a year ago that saw his fly-ball ratio go from 34% in 2010 to 45% last year. That’s significant and it appears as though it was no aberration. David Price’s strikeout growth is supported by raw stuff. His “average” fastball now sits at 95 MPH. Outstanding command and skills against both right-handed and left-handed batters supports that he's more than a LH feaster. Trends say he's an ace with even more growth potential with projections being a 2.50 ERA with 250 K’s. Play: Tampa Bay +109 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit -109 over CHICAGO
2:10 PM EST. The Tigers come in with a 5-1 record and their only loss came when they blew a 2-0 ninth inning lead against the Rays. They should be 6-0 and it’s no surprise, as they’re one of the favorites to win the World Series. The White Sox are one of the favorites to lose 100 games or more. Matt Scherzer was whacked in his opening day start in that bizarre 13-12 win over Boston. Jim Leyland said Scherzer started to battle a sinus infection over the weekend and it really affected him. It sounds as though Scherzer is feeling much better coming into this one. Scherzer went 2-2 with a 1.24 ERA and 27 strikeouts in four starts (29 innings) against Chicago last season. It seems like the ideal opponent for Scherzer to get back on track against. Jake Peavy has been on the DL in each of the last four years. He’s coming off a decent start in Texas in which he allowed three runs on eight hits in six innings in a very tough park but it was one start. Peavy went 7-7 with a 4.92 ERA in 112 IP with the South Side last season. His ERA and fly-ball ratio is trending ugly and even in that first game we saw a groundball rate of just 20%. The pitchers don’t always dictate the play. When we can spot less than a dime on the Tigers over the White Sox in a year in which one is projected to win 100 games while the other is projected to lose that many, we’ll gladly take our chances. Play: Detroit -109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
