The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - April 13, 2012

[CatsOverUnders]

2012 MLB O/URecord: 15-19-1
2011 MLB O/URecord: 366-270-42 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)


Fine 2-1-1 day yesterday, although I’m very disappointed my perfect Jeff Karstens streak came to an end. For those that are new readers, I was 10-0 on Karstens over/unders last year, when he was my best pitcher, and 1-0 to start this year after that under vs Cliff Lee. But I had the over last night (And to my credit, I was right, as Karstens really wasn’t his normal effective self in a mere five innings), and just barely lost, as the Pirates blew a few opportunities to tiethe game at three, which would’ve at least forced a push. In any case, you just move on to the next day. I’m posting this now, as some of my bets for the day play in the afternoon, but I’ll post again later in this thread with my best bets on the slate.


Chicago Cubs @St. Louis Cardinals
Jeff Samardzija vs Adam Wainwright
UNDER 7

Count me as another one that is buying into the Jeff Samardzija hype, or at least for now, after his absolutely brilliant 2012 debut against the Nationals last week, in which he surrendered only one earned run while just missing a complete game by one out. He also had eight strikeouts in a fairly dominating performance. In my opinion,that was no fluke, and I think we’ll see more similar outings from the former reliever, although there is the possibility that he has some off-starts whilehe establishes his niche in the big leagues. The variable of him starting in another team’s home opener, as he is doing here, also lingers, but I think he’ll come out of it pretty well.

Adam Wainwright is another fascinating pitcher, as we all wondered how he would return after missing all of 2011. Hopefully his first start isn’t anyindication, although he wasn’t horrible or anything, but he did give up three earned runs in less than six innings, which is an abnormality for a Wainwright outing. On the bright side, he did have six strikeouts compared to one walk, which a positive sign for him reclaiming his old form, especially since it camein a tough spot pitching in Milwaukee. I’m counting on the Wainwright we all know to show up in this home opener against a Cubs lineup that similart o the one he handled well in 2010 (3.00 ERA, 23:4 K:B ratio in 21 innings). It’s not a huge bet but still a solid one to lock in on the under.


Other 4/13/12MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking
David Price vs Josh Beckett UNDER 8.5 (This is just a minimum bet)


**Will Add More Over/Unders With Writeups Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**

[CatsOverUnders]

Adding this potential gem, which will be a solid-sized bet for me.

Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals
Derek Lowe vs Luke Hochevar
OVER 8

It’s the home opener for my No. 1 sleeper team this year, the Royals, and they have one of their longtime faces of their youth movement, Luke Hochevar, on the hill. Hochevar is a guy who I always thought would turn it around after a few unspectacular seasons in the bigs, and he seems primed to do that thus far after a nice 2012 debut in which he yielded only two runs in six-plus inningsof work against the mighty Angels… on the road. However, he’ll be facing an Indians team today that he’s historically had trouble with (5.21 ERA, 1.34 WHIPfor his career vs Cleveland), and I think they’ll get to him at least a little bit in this contest.

Opposing him is Derek Lowe, who is also out to a nice start with his new team after tossing seven terrific innings against a dangerous Blue Jays offense, while surrendering zero earned runs. Lowe is a grizzled veteran who looks like he still has at least a few more decent years left in the tank, but I’m not sure I like this spot for him today. The Royals offense has looked pretty good and is only going to get better from here on out, especially when Hosmer is hitting just.200, a number you know he’ll 100-percent raise significantly very soon. His inevitable spurt could begin today, as the Royals begin their ’12 home slate. I like the over, and Vegas currently has it at -125 with good reason.

[CatsOverUnders]

7-1 after the first... I think it's safe to lock up that over. Good victory, and hopefully Price vs Beckett under holds. Samardzija vs Wainwright should be starting soon after the delay, and I'll be back a bit later with the rest of today's over/under bets. I'm getting back to my 57% level, I'm feeling it.

[moocow]

Thanks for the Royals over. Quick monies

[CatsOverUnders]

You're welcome. Unfortunately, got screwed on Price vs Beckett under, as it was 4-1 going into the BOTTOM of the 8th, and the bullpen got absolutely destroyed. Luckily it was a minimum-sized bet. And my opinion on Wainwright appears to be wrong, as he was shelled by a Cubs team that he previously owned. I'll take note of that moving forward as it looks like his arm is just dead. He's not the same pitcher anymore. On to the rest of my bets for the evening...

Tommy Hunter vs Brandon Morrow OVER 8.5

Lucas Harrell vs Ricky Nolasco OVER 7.5

And shortly I will add a write-up for my best bet of the evening, Clayton Richard vs Aaron Harang OVER 7

[CatsOverUnders]

And here's my writeup covering my best bet for the day...

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Best Bet)
Clayton Richard vs Aaron Harang
OVER 7

It's only the second full week of the season, yet we already have a pitching re-match on display right here between Clayton Richard and Aaron Harang. In the first meeting, Richard dominated, throwing seven shutout innings of two-hit ball with no walks and three strikeouts. Meanwhile, Harang struggled against his ex-team as they shellacked him for four runs in four-and-a-third innings, en route to an 8-4 victory. Harang was very solid last year as a Friar, despite his 1.34 WHIP, as he recorded 14 wins and a 3.64 ERA, which would seem to indicate that he has plenty left in the tank to keep his career steadily going.

Usually, when a fine pitcher such as Richard shuts down a team - especially less than a week ago - said team rebounds in their next opportunity against the pitcher, just as I feel Los Angeles will do here. The Dodgers offense has been putting up some runs so far, as they are among the top league leaders in runs scored, and coming off a sweep of the Pirates, I think they'll continue with that momentum to have at least a decent game offensively. I don't think the Padres will be as efficient as they were in their last meeting with Harang, but it seems like their hitters know him well from their time together last year and as a result, could pick up where they left off and scratch across at least a few runs. I'm going over.

[moocow]

Lets keep it rollin

[brewerfan003]

And here's my writeup covering my best bet for the day...

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Best Bet)
Clayton Richard vs Aaron Harang
OVER 7

It's only the second full week of the season, yet we already have a pitching re-match on display right here between Clayton Richard and Aaron Harang. In the first meeting, Richard dominated, throwing seven shutout innings of two-hit ball with no walks and three strikeouts. Meanwhile, Harang struggled against his ex-team as they shellacked him for four runs in four-and-a-third innings, en route to an 8-4 victory. Harang was very solid last year as a Friar, despite his 1.34 WHIP, as he recorded 14 wins and a 3.64 ERA, which would seem to indicate that he has plenty left in the tank to keep his career steadily going.

Usually, when a fine pitcher such as Richard shuts down a team - especially less than a week ago - said team rebounds in their next opportunity against the pitcher, just as I feel Los Angeles will do here. The Dodgers offense has been putting up some runs so far, as they are among the top league leaders in runs scored, and coming off a sweep of the Pirates, I think they'll continue with that momentum to have at least a decent game offensively. I don't think the Padres will be as efficient as they were in their last meeting with Harang, but it seems like their hitters know him well from their time together last year and as a result, could pick up where they left off and scratch across at least a few runs. I'm going over.

thanks for the winner...played the dodgers...then read your write-up...made a lot of sense...threw a couple of bones on it and we already hit it in the 4th inning...thanks buddy...keep it going!

[moocow]

[CatsOverUnders]

Nice 4-2 day today, which should start to retrieve my confidence from last year. Thank you guys for trusting me and you'll be glad you do. Just keep following me and I 100% PROMISE you I will continue to deliver. That's not a false promise and that's not some garbage statement - I absolutely promise you. I take MLB Over/Unders VERY seriously, and while I have fun doing this every single night of the season (Without taking a single day off, as you'll find out throughout the season), this is ultimately a serious endeavor to me that I treat like a job, and a job that I know I do as well as anyone in the country, that being MLB Over/Unders.

I'm only 19-22-1 now to start the season (I added a loss that I didn't factor in from a few days ago - that's how honest I am), but you can't let a small 40-game sample get into your mindset when you bet over 650 games a season, and I haven't let it get to me. After a day like this, though, now I feel like I can truly take off and reach my normal level.

Again, for those that have been following me, thank you for trusting me and if you continue to do so, I promise you will be heavily rewarded in the end. My 366-270-42 record doing this every day last year in 2011 was no fluke, and believe me, I am incredibly, incredibly determined and primed to top that. If you'd like to get to know me better or look at the proof my great record last year - complete with stat breakdowns featuring my record with every team, pitcher, as well record for each day of the week and month (Again, I take this very seriously lol) - feel free to PM at any time. We're only going up from here on out.