The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - April 15, 2012 (Featuring my Biggest Bet of the Season)

2012 MLB O/URecord: 22-23-2 (Started 2-7 so now you see me getting back into my rhythm)
2011 MLB O/URecord: 366-270-42 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)


Third straight winning day yesterday after going 3-1-1, although I really should’ve been 4-0-1. I lost the Darvish vs Blackburn over by a half-run because the Twins couldn’t score with second and third and NO outs in the 9th, with the Rangers defense playing back, willing to sacrifice a run or two, since they were up four. But of course, the lowly Twins couldn’t even put the ball in play, and those runners were stranded. That’s why I never let my losing record get into my head in the early parts of this season, as bad breaks like thishave plagued me throughout the year already, but after this 9-4-2 stretch over the past few days, I feel like I’m getting back to my level. And I will continue that run and cross .500 today on what looks like a very good slate, one of which that will have my biggest bet of the season…


Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (Biggest Bet of the Year)
Brian Matusz vs Kyle Drabek
UNDER 9.5

Wow,w hat a vibe I had for this game, and when I get really excited for an over/under, the results are almost always good. My jubilation came even beforeI saw the line, which is absolutely a half-run higher than it should be, as Iwas ready to load up even if the under was 9. Let me explain why I love this game so much.

First, we have Brian Matusz starting for Baltimore, and despite getting out to a rocky start to his 2012 season versus the Yankees, I still really, really like this spot for him. For one, he had a nice Spring Training, posting a 3.65 ERA in six starts, while registering 22 strikeouts in just under 25 innings. Furthermore, his off-start against rival New York may have only lasted four innings, but he was doing fine until he had one bad inning in the fourth. A lot of times, a pitcher’s start is often misconstrued because of one bad inning, so I can onlyhope Matusz didn’t lose any sort of confidence after an effective spring. He’s been a high-end prospect for awhile now, and I know he’s still capable of becoming a quality pitcher, which he has shown flashes of throughout the past couple of years. He’ll be at least fine here.

Facing the Oriole southpaw is Kyle Drabek, another player who has always had high potential as a top prospect, yet still hasn’t reached that level. Unlike Matusz, though, Drabek got out to a nice start for his 2012 season - a great sign for someone who struggled so much last year that he was sent down - when he allowed only three hits and one run over five-plus innings against the mighty Red Sox, picking up the win in the process. With that comes confidence,and Drabek has showed signs of becoming a dominant pitcher; there’s a reason hewas once a top prospect, especially when he came over from Philadelphia in the Roy Halladay deal as the main player Toronto received in the trade. In addition, Drabek had a good spring so it appears perhaps he is on the road to fulfilling his potential this year, and with his confidence at a high right now, pitching at home, I’m confident he can build off his first start very successfully.

Let me repeat: This is my biggest bet of the season. It may actually end up as my biggest bet for the entire season, even as the months of the season pass by; that’s how strong my vibe is on this game. If there’s one bet you take from me in thee arly going, make it this one and go under 9.5.


Wow, I am so into this game that I just feel like I can’t write about any other game. In any case, here are my other bets on this beautiful Jackie Robinson Day (Which might be somewhat of a variable in a few games, by the way), which pale in comparison to the one above.


Other 4/15/12MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Mike Leakevs Ross Detwiler OVER 8
Ubaldo Jimenez vs Luis Mendoza OVER 8.5
Matt Moore vs Felix Doubront UNDER 9.5
Kevin Correia vs Ryan Vogelsong OVER 7
Chris Narveson vs Brandon Beachy OVER
Jerome Williams vs Ivan Nova OVER 10
JA Happ vs Anibal Sanchez UNDER 7.5
Graham Godfrey vs Blake Beaven UNDER 7 (Remember what I said about Beaven being my No.1 sleeper this year. Small bet, though)

And just an aside on why I’m more dedicated and passionate when it comes to baseball over/unders than anybody else: When I was looking at these games last night and saw Happ vs Sanchez, the first thing I thought of was how they faced last year on a Sunday. Then I realized off the top of my head that they faced last year on the second Sunday of the season in Florida and the end result was an under… today is the second Sunday of the season as well with the same exact scenario. I mean, it’s only a small bet because the line is low (And I LOVE Happ as much as any pitcher in the bigs), but just something interesting to consider. How many other people in the country realized that fact off the top of their head?


**MayAdd More MLB Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**

Thanks for the write ups C.O.U...question though. How do you play these games unit wise? Even with the 2011 record you say you had it is very possible to break even if most of your winners were small plays and big plays lost. Kind of hard to get people to make money on your plays if you don't put units on it...thanks again and BOL today.

My largest play this season is that Cleveland over. Winds blowing out to LF 25 MPH. Both teams used the bullpen for 7+ innings each last night.

Today proves my point exactly. Your biggest play of the year loses and all your small plays could win and you still lose. You can show documentation all you want from last year but u didn't post those numbers here. Any of us could create a detailed spreadsheet like you say you have with a documented record and stats from last year. You're write up have the feel of someone who's going to eventually asks for $$$ for your picks once you go on a hot streak. Either way I wish you BOL.

darkstar77 said:

Today proves my point exactly. Your biggest play of the year loses and all your small plays could win and you still lose. You can show documentation all you want from last year but u didn't post those numbers here. Any of us could create a detailed spreadsheet like you say you have with a documented record and stats from last year. You're write up have the feel of someone who's going to eventually asks for $$$ for your picks once you go on a hot streak. Either way I wish you BOL.

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i swear you're on every thread darkstar saying the same thing about eventually asking for $$$

kiwiboy said:

i swear you're on every thread darkstar saying the same thing about eventually asking for $$$

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What all two of em? So you believe a guy who's never posted here before and says he's been playing totals for years but only lists a record from last year. However no one here has ever seen these plays posted but he can show you "documentation" of so called plays along with detailed stats. So he opens an account here and posts these write ups just you like you see in the service play forum. He starts slow but promises over and over you will make money tailing him. His biggest play of the year is with a shit Orioles pitcher who has OVER written across his forehead. Then he lists 8 or so other plays with no team names, just pitchers and no writeups. I have no doubt this guy is trying to build up a following after a hot streak then next thing you knows he wants dough. I've seen it over and over. I say this stuff so newbies to the site don't fall for these guys. And I believe one of the sticky posts at the top of this forum also says beware of guys who post undocumented records. Tail this guy all you want. GL.

darkstar77 said:

What all two of em? So you believe a guy who's never posted here before and says he's been playing totals for years but only lists a record from last year. However no one here has ever seen these plays posted but he can show you "documentation" of so called plays along with detailed stats. So he opens an account here and posts these write ups just you like you see in the service play forum. He starts slow but promises over and over you will make money tailing him. His biggest play of the year is with a shit Orioles pitcher who has OVER written across his forehead. Then he lists 8 or so other plays with no team names, just pitchers and no writeups. I have no doubt this guy is trying to build up a following after a hot streak then next thing you knows he wants dough. I've seen it over and over. I say this stuff so newbies to the site don't fall for these guys. And I believe one of the sticky posts at the top of this forum also says beware of guys who post undocumented records. Tail this guy all you want. GL.

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You are right on. Toronto scored 7 in the 6th inning and score 9 themselves =) Matusz BLOWS!

FairWarning said:

My largest play this season is that Cleveland over. Winds blowing out to LF 25 MPH. Both teams used the bullpen for 7+ innings each last night.

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Nice call Fair

Coaster said:

Nice call Fair

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Thank you sir. Rolled that with the Pens over for a nice day.

FairWarning said:

Thank you sir. Rolled that with the Pens over for a nice day.

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When did they cover the over in Pens game? Fairly early?

Half way thru the 2nd
Was a push after the 1st! 4-2
Added 6 more

Coaster said:

Half way thru the 2nd
Was a push after the 1st! 4-2
Added 6 more

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These playoff games have really turned ugly thanks to Shanahan setting the tone with his Weber decision.

darkstar77 said:

Thanks for the write ups C.O.U...question though. How do you play these games unit wise? Even with the 2011 record you say you had it is very possible to break even if most of your winners were small plays and big plays lost. Kind of hard to get people to make money on your plays if you don't put units on it...thanks again and BOL today.

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darkstar77 said:

What all two of em? So you believe a guy who's never posted here before and says he's been playing totals for years but only lists a record from last year. However no one here has ever seen these plays posted but he can show you "documentation" of so called plays along with detailed stats. So he opens an account here and posts these write ups just you like you see in the service play forum. He starts slow but promises over and over you will make money tailing him. His biggest play of the year is with a shit Orioles pitcher who has OVER written across his forehead. Then he lists 8 or so other plays with no team names, just pitchers and no writeups. I have no doubt this guy is trying to build up a following after a hot streak then next thing you knows he wants dough. I've seen it over and over. I say this stuff so newbies to the site don't fall for these guys. And I believe one of the sticky posts at the top of this forum also says beware of guys who post undocumented records. Tail this guy all you want. GL.

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I completely understand your skepticism, as there are countless fakes and imposters out there, ruining it for everyone else (Although I would say there's definitely more people pretending to be "great" than there are people who actually are successful in this industry). Unfortunately, that's the world we live in today, so that's why I understand your point of view, and would normally side with it.

Please understand: I'm not here to make any money (Except winnings from my bets, of course, on the sportsbook I participate with) or lead people into "buying bets" from me. Not at all. Let me tell you exactly who I am, and only hope you can tell that I'm 100% genuine, even through this text and these words on a message board; I'm a 26-year old guy from New York (And I actually dislike NY sports teams) who graduated college a year ago with a degree in journalism and who loves to write. In fact, I specifically went to school to be a writer or broadcaster in sports, preferably baseball, as I've always been addicted. That's what led me to begin doing write-ups every day (Just about all the time I'll do full write-ups for at least multiple games), at the advice of some of my friends who were witnesses to my passion and success for MLB Over/Unders, and not to mention as the result of having a hard time finding a job related to my field. So, for this season, I began to explore what I might have a potential solid career in.

I probably haven't been betting as long as a lot of people here, as I only started in 2008. I started with MLB in the season of 2009, and while I wasn't doing it every day, I noticed I was winning considerably more than losing at these glorious MLB Over/Under bets. I had also tried moneyline bets on a consistent basis but definitely was losing more than I was winning, which is why I stuck with over/unders and only over/unders, although I'll do the occasional moneyline bet every once in awhile.

Anyway, I didn't keep track of record in 2009, as I was just doing it for fun and to experiment, but did in 2010, in which I finished 162-144-20, which is just under 53%. Nothing special, but I wasn't doing it every day, and I thought I could take it to another level.

So, in 2011, I decided I was going to do this literally every single day of the season - no days off, except for the all-star break - and see what happens. I've always been obsessed with baseball, vividly remembering discussing it in kindergarden with my teacher and classmates. All throughout my life, I observed boxscores and game recaps on a regular basis, even when I could only do that with a newspaper (Wow, how things have changed). This also led me to this routine, as I truly believe repetition, repetition, repetition is a strong trait for good betting. Doing this stuff every day last year, I instantly gained mental notes of trends and tendencies certain pitchers had; what hot and cold streaks certain offensive lineups were on; I mean, human psychology is a big part of my betting, as these pitchers are just regular people like you and me, so this also helped with my betting.

The end result, as I always list at the top of each article because I'm genuinely very proud of my accomplishment, especially since it came from really, really hard work and dedication, was my 366-270-42 record; a winning percentage of 57.5% and a win-or-tie percentage of 60.2%. Now, as we discussed, it's easy to start a username on a message board and claim a record. I just wish I was talking to you in person, as well as anyone else who may have their doubts, and you could tell that I'm one of the honest ones and wouldn't take credit for something that isn't mine. In fact, if I wasn't honest, why would I mention that I was 1-3 this 2012 season before I started posting here? If you look at my first post, I immediately mentioned that when I could have just wiped the slate. But I'm an honest guy who is very passionate about this endeavor so I'm not going to weasel out of my 1-3 start, even though nobody saw it. It happened so it should be known and public.

Now as for how I bet in terms of money, I don't do the "unit play" system. Honestly, while I've been visiting message boards for quite awhile (Never really posting), I never completely understood units. What's the max? How do decimals work? Thus, if everyone would prefer I also list value next to each bet, I'll put the literal amount down that I have on each game. You asked about how much I made in 2011 and brought up a good point - if you're winning a lot of smaller bets, but losing the bigger ones, you're not really making much at all. Fortunately, I was up a decent amount last year for the whole season - +$1,104, to be exact - utilizing a system in which my minimum bet was $10 (One was actually for $5, a Bud Norris/Carlos Zambrano Wrigley Field afternoon game, to be exact), while my max would be $100, with a handful of bets going over that (My biggest bet of the year being Trevor Cahill vs Ricky Romero in an early April under, risking $165 to win $150). So, now you know.

Again, while I understand that I'm relatively new here, please, please believe me that I'm one of the honest guys in this business. I mean, is it possible that last year was a fluke and that I'm potentially over-hyping myself? Of course that's possible, although hopefully that's not the case. All I know is that last year, I truly lived and breathed this stuff. I was so involved that I did a complete stat breakdown, in which I discovered my record betting over/unders on each team, each pitcher, and even my record for each day of the week and each month. Furthermore, I was so into it that right after the season, if you mentioned a pitching matchup that I bet on (Any decent-sized bet) from my game log, I absolutely swear I could tell you the day of the week that a lot of them occured on. That's how I attached I was and still am to Baseball Over/Unders, and while I do take this very seriously, I also have a lot of fun doing it. You have to have fun doing this stuff, especially if you're fully committed, otherwise how are you going to survive this literally every day for six full months of the baseball season? Last year, no matter what I did on any given night, it always ended up with my looking at each pitching matchup for the next day. I 100% promise you.

Hopefully I'm not just a one-year wonder. That's why I'm here. If last year's record is any indication, I need to back it up and do it again and prove to myself that I do have a gift for MLB Over/Unders. I also want people other than my own personal friends to notice how good I can truly be. Yes, I was 4-5 today, bringing my overall record to an unacceptable 26-28-2, but I've kept a steady head, understanding that when you bet over 650 games, you're going to go through stretches like this. It's how you prevail in your slumps that determine your fate as a bettor.

Again, while I know it can be difficult, as anyone has the potential to come on here and take ownership of anything they claim, please, please, please don't lump me in with any sort of fake people. What I did last year, I swear to you, was real, and I'm not here to try to dupe people and make money.

For those that have been following me, continue to follow me and thank you for your trust; you will be rewarded in the end, this is like a job to me so I have to win, and I know I will consistently again. I know I can reclaim the high level that I was at last season - or even exceed it - and I'm going to use every single day for the next five and a half months to prove it. I'll be back tomorrow with my picks for the Monday slate.

Thank you for the detailed response. You obviously put a lot of work into that and its appreciated. While I still remain a little skeptical, and that just comes natural after seeing the scum who comes and goes here and two other dirtier places across the street. I do not wish you any bad luck at all and I will check your thread each day for sure. As for units you say you play 10-100. So for your plays I would put 1 unit if playing 10, 1.5 units for 15, 2 for 20 units and so on and so forth. On a day like yesterday if it was your biggest play of the year then I assumed you had $100 or ten units on Tor Under. Being down 10 units just on one single play will just kill your day if everything else is 1-4 units and those even come out even 60%. If you were straight wagering $10 on every play then then its easier to figure out your total each day even though some totals are up to -125 while other could be +125. So in conclusion I just think people can track you better with a unit system instead of posting ten plays and one of them is your biggest play of the year. Like I said I wish you no ill will just remain skepical but I'm interested to see how come out...thanks again for the detailed response. GL :toast:

darkstar77 said:

Thank you for the detailed response. You obviously put a lot of work into that and its appreciated. While I still remain a little skeptical, and that just comes natural after seeing the scum who comes and goes here and two other dirtier places across the street. I do not wish you any bad luck at all and I will check your thread each day for sure. As for units you say you play 10-100. So for your plays I would put 1 unit if playing 10, 1.5 units for 15, 2 for 20 units and so on and so forth. On a day like yesterday if it was your biggest play of the year then I assumed you had $100 or ten units on Tor Under. Being down 10 units just on one single play will just kill your day if everything else is 1-4 units and those even come out even 60%. If you were straight wagering $10 on every play then then its easier to figure out your total each day even though some totals are up to -125 while other could be +125. So in conclusion I just think people can track you better with a unit system instead of posting ten plays and one of them is your biggest play of the year. Like I said I wish you no ill will just remain skepical but I'm interested to see how come out...thanks again for the detailed response. GL :toast:

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No problem. Like I said, I completely understand skeptcism, as most people out there that come on message boards with claims are indeed trolls or fakes, but it makes me feel good that you can tell my sincerity through my writing because this is exactly how I am in person - just a guy who is very passionate and obsessed with this specific type of bet. Any time you'd like to witness my 2011 27-page over/under stat sheet, just let me know.

And actually, again to prove my honesty, I had just under $200 (Risked $192 for $160) on that Matusz vs Drabek matchup (I will forever hate Kevin Gregg. That game was on pace for the win, how do you give up all those runs with two outs??), which was bigger than any over/under bet I made all of last year, and might end up being my biggest bet all year this season, so that would be a loss of approximately 20 units. Ouch. Most of the rest were for $30 and $40, while my two lowest ones, Happ vs Sanchez and Godfrey vs Beaven (Admittedly forced a bit because as I mentioned, I love Happ and Beaven), were for $15.

Thank you for understanding me. I just hope I can prove myself; actually, I KNOW I can prove myself as an elite MLB Over/Under bettor. I'm glad you'll be following me because I am 100% confident I will get back to winning consistently and at a high level. 100% confident. Good luck to us both:smoker2:

IMO, and this is only IMO, if you want any chance to win you're playing way too many plays. 2, maybe 3 at most each day, should make it.

But I really shouldn't be coming in here telling you what to do. I just think being selective with a few plays produces a better ROI.

Good luck the rest of the season.

billyjoejim said:

IMO, and this is only IMO, if you want any chance to win you're playing way too many plays. 2, maybe 3 at most each day, should make it.

But I really shouldn't be coming in here telling you what to do. I just think being selective with a few plays produces a better ROI.

Good luck the rest of the season.

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I would agree on that as well. When I capped totals last year I only played the games that I had the biggest difference between where I capped the total vs where Vegas did. That was usually 2-3 plays a day tops....

C.O.U. I would love to see your spreadsheet someday if u ever have time to send. I ran things through an Excel model last year and always like seeing/hearing about other systems. Thanks man. GL today!

How is Kevin Gregg still a closer......let alone still in the MLB????