2012 MLB O/URecord:26-28-2
2011 MLB O/URecord: 366-270-42(Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)
I deeply apologize for yesterday’s best bet loss in Brian Matusz vs Kyle Drabek under 9.5, which was my biggest of the season. No excuses, that’s a bet I felt really good about and it gave me a huge kind of vibe that I rarely lose on. But you know what, I have no regrets. Ten times out of ten, I’d make the same bet on that specific game in that specific scenario, as Drabek was fabulous (And as I projected, he will continue to be good for the entire year. He’s legitimate), while Matusz was doing just fine all game, especially for an under that high, before running into trouble in that sixth inning. KEVIN GREGG is the unfortunate individual who had to cost us everything, letting both of Matusz’ inherited runners to score (Matusz left the game with two outs. Come on, Gregg!), while giving up three of his own runs, thanks in large part to walks and a hit batter.
Another interesting fact: This was the first time since April 2007 where Kevin Gregg pitched in a game before the seventh inning… potential huge variable that we could not predict and most likely effected Gregg’s mindset. How else do you explain him imploding like that when all he had to do was get one out, starting with the bottom of Toronto’s batting order? Let’s just put it this way: I was still happy with this bet because the reason we lost was a complete fluke. If you had the over, you caught a break, so I’m not letting this loss get to my head. 4-5 overall yesterday on what will most likely be a season-high nine-bet day. Let’s move on to the next one…
Detroit Tigers @Kansas City Royals(Best Bet)
Justin Verlander vs Danny Duffy
UNDER 7.5
A couple of my friends laughed at the notion that I suggested this delightful pitching matchup is a meeting of the American League’s best pitcher and perhaps the best American League pitcher in five years. I mean, I guess I understand the resentment of that statement, as Danny Duffy was simply not good in his rookie year last season, after finishing up 4-8 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Despite that, I still stand by my original statement, and not just because Duffy is actually one of my favorite pitchers in all of baseball.
First off, Duffy has always been tabbed as one of the higher-end prospects in the Kansas City organization, with a lot of people from within thinking he can break out in his first full season in the bigs. He got out to a beautiful start in his 2012 debut, holding the Athletics to one hit (Not to mention four walks) over six shutout innings. Maybe best of all, he struck out eight, a really efficient number that I hope he can duplicate more of moving forward. Yes, he’s facing a much tougher lineup tonight, that being the Tigers’ potent offense, but I have confidence he can build off his first start, succeed, and contribute to a successful under here. At the very least, the odds are in favor of him being able to minimize what Prince Fielder does tonight, as Prince is only a.258 career hitter against left-handed pitching, compared to .295 vs righties. Furthermore, Miguel Cabrera has been struggling thus far this season, so that’s the heart of the order right there having the potential of being very limited tonight. Most importantly, this is a huge, huge opportunity for Mr. Duffy, being able to face everyone’s pick to win the AL Central early on in the season in his home debut - and directly against the standard for what every pitcher wants to be in Justin Verlander. I think Duffy will be up for the task and take the next leap forward in his career tonight with a solid start.
Then, of course, there is Verlander to analyze, but really, what else is there to say about last year’s MVP and Cy Young that hasn’t already been said? He’s arguablythe most dominant pitcher in all of baseball so specific stats need not apply here, as we all have a good idea on what they are. Oh, except for maybe the fact that he owned the Royals in three starts in 2011, tossing just over 22 innings (Almost eight innings every time out against them!), allowing only 13 hits, four earned runs, and five walks. Incredible. That’s also a very relevant stat, as this year’s Royal team is very similar to the one last season, and I think it’s safe to assume that Verlander’s start to ‘12 thus far would lead us to believe that he is still the same elite pitcher he’s always been. Any opportunity you get at a Verlander under where the line is 7.5, you have to take it, especially against an up-and-coming pitcher and potential future rival like Duffy. Very fascinating matchup and I’m going under.
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Brandon McCarthy vs Jered Weaver
UNDER [Wait till gametime to see if the line goes up to 7, which is very possible. If not, I’ll settle on 6.5]
This could potentially be a very good bet if the line reaches 7, since that would protect us in the very, very possible event of a 5-2 outcome. As I think about it, I can’t really sense the score going above that. After all, we have a proven ace like Jered Weaver going for the Halos tonight at home. In his last homestart, on Opening Night, he went eight strong, giving up no runs, four hits,and ten strikeouts, and that’s been a trend throughout his career, as he’s pitched considerably better at home (2.66 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) compared to on theroad (3.94 ERA, 1.23 WHIP). Also throw in the fact that he’ll be looking to rebound after an unusually poor start (Well, really just a couple of rockyinnings) on the road against the lowly Twins and we should have a determined Weaver at the top of his game going up against an Athletics offense that perennially sits towards the bottom of the major hitting categories.
The real x-factor for this under will be Brandon McCarthy. Ever since his dominant 2012 debut in Japan, when he tossed seven innings of one-run ball, he hasn’t quite been the same exact pitcher, although that’s not to say he’s been bad, because that’s certainly not the case at all. From watching him, he just hasn’t been as effective or as in control, a hurdle he rarely faced throughout his breakout 2011 campaign. In the end, though, I think he’ll give us just enough, as he continues to thrive as the ace of the Oakland rotation. Take the under, but wait AS LONG AS POSSIBLE to see if the line goes up to 7.
Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox
Jake Arrieta vs Philip Humber
OVER 8
I’m surprised the line for this game dropped from 8.5 to 8. I mean, you have two fairly good lineups involved in this one going up against two pitchers that are just kind of there, taking place at U.S. Cellular Field, which isn’t exactly ahaven for unders. I mean, Philip Humber will probably exceed low expectations when all is said and done, especially after such a successful first full season in the bigs in 2011, when he went 9-9 in 26 starts with a 3.75 ERA and verynotable 1.18 WHIP. But here, on April 16, he is making only his first start of the season, of course following the postponement due to inclement weather when he was supposed to face Jeanmar Gomez last week. That’s always a possible variable for a pitcher and could help maybe get a couple of runs off Humber for a live offense like Baltimore.
His opponent, Jake Arrieta, is definitely more mercurial than most, in that you really don’t know what you’re going to get from him at this early stage in his career. His first two starts best exemplify that, as he went from shutting out the Twins in the season opener, to getting tagged a little bit by the Yankee in his next outing. He’s had a 4.66 and 5.05 ERA in his first two years in the Majors, and ultimately, I actually think he’ll end up with a career ERA around 4.50. In turn, I think he’s set for a fine 2012 that should establish him as a mainstay in the Oriole rotation. In this specific game, however, I can just see him surrendering at least a few runs, especially since he’s not as good on the road as he is at home (Although it was only a slight difference in 2011). Not a big bet, just decent-sized, and I’m going over.
Houston Astros @Washington Nationals
Kyle Weiland vs Stephen Strasburg
OVER 6.5
Here we have a rare instance where an over/under is less than 7, yet one of the pitchers involved is an absolutely random obscure player who may not even be pitching in the majors in a few years. Granted, the other pitcher is Stephen Strasburg, who is quickly already living up to his monstrous hype after two remarkable starts this year, but let’s be honest: He’s not going to continue at a 0.69 ERA and 0.85 WHIP pace all season. I would think just about everyone who first saw this game was thinking, “It’s the Astros. How will they get more than a run off the great Strasburg?” Well, as I’ve emphasized before, the Astros offense is very underrated. One of my main sleepers this year who I detailed over a week ago, JD Martinez, still has a hit in every single game this year and will no doubt be an all-star if he continues this pace (Please don’t tell me I jinxed it). Furthermore, Carlos Lee (Bias aside, since he is my favorite player despite being a Ranger fan) is proving that he is still indeed a legit cleanup hitter. Oh, and Jordan Schafer is turning heads in the leadoff spot with five steals and an on-base percentage over .400. I’m thinking the Astros will be very aggressive on the basepaths against Strasburg tonight, in which Schafer then can create havoc.
The random obscure pitcher I was referring to is former waiver claim Kyle Weiland, who certainly pitched like one in his first start, when he was thrashed by Atlanta for eight hits, four runs, and two walks over five innings. I don’t think he’ll be that bad all year, but his ERA should end up somewhere around the high 4’s/low 5’s, which doesn’t give him very good chances tonight, especially against a live Nationals offense that is super high in confidence from their successful start. They should keep it going against Weiland.
Other 4/16/12MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (Smaller Bets, But In Order)
Roy Halladay vs Tim Lincecum OVER 6
Cory Luebke vs Jeremy Guthrie OVER 9
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/URecord: 366-270-42(Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)
I deeply apologize for yesterday’s best bet loss in Brian Matusz vs Kyle Drabek under 9.5, which was my biggest of the season. No excuses, that’s a bet I felt really good about and it gave me a huge kind of vibe that I rarely lose on. But you know what, I have no regrets. Ten times out of ten, I’d make the same bet on that specific game in that specific scenario, as Drabek was fabulous (And as I projected, he will continue to be good for the entire year. He’s legitimate), while Matusz was doing just fine all game, especially for an under that high, before running into trouble in that sixth inning. KEVIN GREGG is the unfortunate individual who had to cost us everything, letting both of Matusz’ inherited runners to score (Matusz left the game with two outs. Come on, Gregg!), while giving up three of his own runs, thanks in large part to walks and a hit batter.
Another interesting fact: This was the first time since April 2007 where Kevin Gregg pitched in a game before the seventh inning… potential huge variable that we could not predict and most likely effected Gregg’s mindset. How else do you explain him imploding like that when all he had to do was get one out, starting with the bottom of Toronto’s batting order? Let’s just put it this way: I was still happy with this bet because the reason we lost was a complete fluke. If you had the over, you caught a break, so I’m not letting this loss get to my head. 4-5 overall yesterday on what will most likely be a season-high nine-bet day. Let’s move on to the next one…
Detroit Tigers @Kansas City Royals(Best Bet)
Justin Verlander vs Danny Duffy
UNDER 7.5
A couple of my friends laughed at the notion that I suggested this delightful pitching matchup is a meeting of the American League’s best pitcher and perhaps the best American League pitcher in five years. I mean, I guess I understand the resentment of that statement, as Danny Duffy was simply not good in his rookie year last season, after finishing up 4-8 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Despite that, I still stand by my original statement, and not just because Duffy is actually one of my favorite pitchers in all of baseball.
First off, Duffy has always been tabbed as one of the higher-end prospects in the Kansas City organization, with a lot of people from within thinking he can break out in his first full season in the bigs. He got out to a beautiful start in his 2012 debut, holding the Athletics to one hit (Not to mention four walks) over six shutout innings. Maybe best of all, he struck out eight, a really efficient number that I hope he can duplicate more of moving forward. Yes, he’s facing a much tougher lineup tonight, that being the Tigers’ potent offense, but I have confidence he can build off his first start, succeed, and contribute to a successful under here. At the very least, the odds are in favor of him being able to minimize what Prince Fielder does tonight, as Prince is only a.258 career hitter against left-handed pitching, compared to .295 vs righties. Furthermore, Miguel Cabrera has been struggling thus far this season, so that’s the heart of the order right there having the potential of being very limited tonight. Most importantly, this is a huge, huge opportunity for Mr. Duffy, being able to face everyone’s pick to win the AL Central early on in the season in his home debut - and directly against the standard for what every pitcher wants to be in Justin Verlander. I think Duffy will be up for the task and take the next leap forward in his career tonight with a solid start.
Then, of course, there is Verlander to analyze, but really, what else is there to say about last year’s MVP and Cy Young that hasn’t already been said? He’s arguablythe most dominant pitcher in all of baseball so specific stats need not apply here, as we all have a good idea on what they are. Oh, except for maybe the fact that he owned the Royals in three starts in 2011, tossing just over 22 innings (Almost eight innings every time out against them!), allowing only 13 hits, four earned runs, and five walks. Incredible. That’s also a very relevant stat, as this year’s Royal team is very similar to the one last season, and I think it’s safe to assume that Verlander’s start to ‘12 thus far would lead us to believe that he is still the same elite pitcher he’s always been. Any opportunity you get at a Verlander under where the line is 7.5, you have to take it, especially against an up-and-coming pitcher and potential future rival like Duffy. Very fascinating matchup and I’m going under.
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Brandon McCarthy vs Jered Weaver
UNDER [Wait till gametime to see if the line goes up to 7, which is very possible. If not, I’ll settle on 6.5]
This could potentially be a very good bet if the line reaches 7, since that would protect us in the very, very possible event of a 5-2 outcome. As I think about it, I can’t really sense the score going above that. After all, we have a proven ace like Jered Weaver going for the Halos tonight at home. In his last homestart, on Opening Night, he went eight strong, giving up no runs, four hits,and ten strikeouts, and that’s been a trend throughout his career, as he’s pitched considerably better at home (2.66 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) compared to on theroad (3.94 ERA, 1.23 WHIP). Also throw in the fact that he’ll be looking to rebound after an unusually poor start (Well, really just a couple of rockyinnings) on the road against the lowly Twins and we should have a determined Weaver at the top of his game going up against an Athletics offense that perennially sits towards the bottom of the major hitting categories.
The real x-factor for this under will be Brandon McCarthy. Ever since his dominant 2012 debut in Japan, when he tossed seven innings of one-run ball, he hasn’t quite been the same exact pitcher, although that’s not to say he’s been bad, because that’s certainly not the case at all. From watching him, he just hasn’t been as effective or as in control, a hurdle he rarely faced throughout his breakout 2011 campaign. In the end, though, I think he’ll give us just enough, as he continues to thrive as the ace of the Oakland rotation. Take the under, but wait AS LONG AS POSSIBLE to see if the line goes up to 7.
Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox
Jake Arrieta vs Philip Humber
OVER 8
I’m surprised the line for this game dropped from 8.5 to 8. I mean, you have two fairly good lineups involved in this one going up against two pitchers that are just kind of there, taking place at U.S. Cellular Field, which isn’t exactly ahaven for unders. I mean, Philip Humber will probably exceed low expectations when all is said and done, especially after such a successful first full season in the bigs in 2011, when he went 9-9 in 26 starts with a 3.75 ERA and verynotable 1.18 WHIP. But here, on April 16, he is making only his first start of the season, of course following the postponement due to inclement weather when he was supposed to face Jeanmar Gomez last week. That’s always a possible variable for a pitcher and could help maybe get a couple of runs off Humber for a live offense like Baltimore.
His opponent, Jake Arrieta, is definitely more mercurial than most, in that you really don’t know what you’re going to get from him at this early stage in his career. His first two starts best exemplify that, as he went from shutting out the Twins in the season opener, to getting tagged a little bit by the Yankee in his next outing. He’s had a 4.66 and 5.05 ERA in his first two years in the Majors, and ultimately, I actually think he’ll end up with a career ERA around 4.50. In turn, I think he’s set for a fine 2012 that should establish him as a mainstay in the Oriole rotation. In this specific game, however, I can just see him surrendering at least a few runs, especially since he’s not as good on the road as he is at home (Although it was only a slight difference in 2011). Not a big bet, just decent-sized, and I’m going over.
Houston Astros @Washington Nationals
Kyle Weiland vs Stephen Strasburg
OVER 6.5
Here we have a rare instance where an over/under is less than 7, yet one of the pitchers involved is an absolutely random obscure player who may not even be pitching in the majors in a few years. Granted, the other pitcher is Stephen Strasburg, who is quickly already living up to his monstrous hype after two remarkable starts this year, but let’s be honest: He’s not going to continue at a 0.69 ERA and 0.85 WHIP pace all season. I would think just about everyone who first saw this game was thinking, “It’s the Astros. How will they get more than a run off the great Strasburg?” Well, as I’ve emphasized before, the Astros offense is very underrated. One of my main sleepers this year who I detailed over a week ago, JD Martinez, still has a hit in every single game this year and will no doubt be an all-star if he continues this pace (Please don’t tell me I jinxed it). Furthermore, Carlos Lee (Bias aside, since he is my favorite player despite being a Ranger fan) is proving that he is still indeed a legit cleanup hitter. Oh, and Jordan Schafer is turning heads in the leadoff spot with five steals and an on-base percentage over .400. I’m thinking the Astros will be very aggressive on the basepaths against Strasburg tonight, in which Schafer then can create havoc.
The random obscure pitcher I was referring to is former waiver claim Kyle Weiland, who certainly pitched like one in his first start, when he was thrashed by Atlanta for eight hits, four runs, and two walks over five innings. I don’t think he’ll be that bad all year, but his ERA should end up somewhere around the high 4’s/low 5’s, which doesn’t give him very good chances tonight, especially against a live Nationals offense that is super high in confidence from their successful start. They should keep it going against Weiland.
Other 4/16/12MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (Smaller Bets, But In Order)
Roy Halladay vs Tim Lincecum OVER 6
Cory Luebke vs Jeremy Guthrie OVER 9
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
