2012 MLB O/URecord: 31-29-2 (Started 2-7 because of rust, have won 57% - my normal expected level - since then)
2011 MLB O/URecord: 366-270-42 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)
If there’s one thing that can set a gambler back, it’s a huge lost bet, which is what I had on Sunday in the Matusz vs Drabek under that was single-handedly ruined by Kevin Gregg. It’s critical to recover as soon as possible, as a way to get it out of your mind and stay relaxed, and I was able to do just that with my 5-1 day yesterday (Almost 6-0, as Luebke vs Guthrie over lost by one run, when it was on pace for most of the game). More than anything, this was very important to me as it pushed me past .500, which is no special accomplishment at all, but considering I started 2-7 and was having doubts that perhaps I was just a one-year fluke in 2011, I now have my full confidence back, and as I’ve said, I PROMISE you that if you continue to follow me, I will continue to reward you. This is just the beginning, as I guarantee you on I’m on the way back up. Let’s keep it going with today’s bets…
(Dollar Amounts For Each Game Will Be Posted In This Thread Later Leading Up To Gametime)
PhiladelphiaPhillies @ San Francisco Giants (Best Bet)
JoeBlanton vs Madison Bumgarner
UNDER 7
Unfortunately, if you didn’t catch this bet last night, you may have missed your opportunityto catch it at 7, but the fact that Vegas changed it so quickly overnight to 6.5 should tell you something. One, why is this certain pitching matchup worthy of the 6.5 tag? Why did it garner such a quick turnaround after opening up at 7? After all, it’s only Joe Blanton - the obvious weak link of the Philadelphia rotation - and Madison Bumgarner, who is a very solid, if unspectacular, young pitcher. I’m actually hoping the line returns to 7, as I want to put more onit, and luckily, we have all day to wait leading up to gametime.
Now here’s why I like it. First, Bumgarner is the more established pitcher so he’sour better hope in winning us this bet. He’s coming off a fantastic road startin which he shut down a formidable Colorado offense to the tune of four hits and one run over 7+ innings, and I think that’s something he will build off of,as he continues to carve out a successful big-league career. In the bigger landscape of things, he’s ultimately going to end up with solid numbers in 2012, and this start tonight will continue to lead to that. He actually dominated Philly in his one start last year against them at home (8 innings, sixhits, 9 strikeouts, two runs), and that came against a tougher Phillies lineup. Bottom line: Bumgarner should continue his steady run here, just as he showed us last year; he’s a very consistent pitcher who goes through extended stretches of good pitching. Hopefully we’re catching him as he starts up another one of said stretches.
Blanton is the question mark for this under, but I like this spot here for him, which really says something because I rarely get a vibe on a Joe Blanton over/under (To my credit, though, while I only took four of his games last year, I was 4-0 in his starts). Blanton, despite being the obvious weak link in the Phillies’stacked rotation, also gets the privilege of being able to pitch under the radar with that moniker. While there’s several justified reasons for that, as Blanton really hasn’t lived up to potential after showing flashes of greatness in the beginning of his career in Oakland, it’s possible that maybe he is returning to old form, especially after such a dominant first start of the season in which he completely baffled a potent Marlins lineup at home. In that game, he held them to three hits and one run over seven strong, while striking out three and walking one. Who expected that from Blanton against the Marlinsin a hitter’s park? While I don’t think this automatically means Blanton is going to have a great 2012, I do believe he can at least start out the year right and continue his success from his first start. While there’s also the variable of being on MLB Network tonight in certain parts of the country, I think we’ll somewhat surprisingly get a pitcher’s duel (As Vegas apparently expects also) in the form of a 4-2/3-2 kind of game. Go under, even if it’s 6.5, but certainly wait until 10 PM (EST) to see if it goes back up to 7.
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox
Colby Lewis vs Jon Lester
OVER 8
This is a very, very rare occurrence, as a game between the mighty offenses of the Rangers and Red Sox opened up with an over/under of only eight. Let that sink in. Eight. Even without looking at the pitching matchup, you have to believe these teams are going to score runs, just as they always do against each other. I’m a Rangers fan so it’s easier for me to pull that off the top of my head, but to assure you it is a fact of life, look at their scores in Fenway last year: 10-0, 12-7, 11-4. In 2010, two of their three Fenway games pitted against each other resulted in outcomes of 7-6 and 8-7. It’s just something I’ve noticed throughout the years is when these teams get together, especially at Fenway, the end result is almost always some ridiculously high score. I really liked the over of this game even before I saw the line (Another tip for you guys that I suggest: ALWAYS look at the pitching matchups BEFORE looking at the lines. Trust me).
Now, let’s break down the pitching matchup. Of course, the over won’t be too easy, as we have two real quality starting pitchers involved. Colby Lewis is a guy I’ve been a fan of even before he went to Japan, since the early 2000’s when he first graced Texas with his presence. He’s a James Shields-like pitcher in that he’s a guy that just knows how to pitch. Very high baseball IQ, knows what to do in situations, and he has the stuff to succeed, as he’s proven in the regular season and playoffs. There’s no question Lewis has turned it around from his awful first stint in the Majors, and it is no fluke at all. I just have a vibe that he’ll get hit a bit by a very frustrated and angry Red Sox lineup. It also helps that he got absolutely rocked by Boston last year, and over a decent-sized sample of three starts (15 innings, 22 hits, 14 runs, 7walks. Ouch).
Then there’s Jon Lester, another fellow good pitcher who is hard to hit. But, like Lewis, he struggled against his opponent on this evening last year, when he surrendered five runs in just over five innings. Listen, getting on the over ofthis game is no dis-credit to the two pitchers in this game because they are really fabulous at what they do - pitch in big games and come up with gutsy performances. But on this night, included with the variable of being on MLB Network in certain portions of the country, I really like the over. Considering the line went from over 8 (-115) to over 8.5 (-125) overnight so quickly, it’sapparent that Vegas really likes the over as well.
Other 4/17/12 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Jeff Niemann vs Ricky Romero UNDER 9
Drew Smyly vs Bruce Chen OVER 9
Wandy Rodriguez vs Gio Gonzalez UNDER 7
Justin Masterson vs Kevin Millwood UNDER 7
Johan Santana vs Randall Delgado UNDER 7
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/URecord: 366-270-42 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)
If there’s one thing that can set a gambler back, it’s a huge lost bet, which is what I had on Sunday in the Matusz vs Drabek under that was single-handedly ruined by Kevin Gregg. It’s critical to recover as soon as possible, as a way to get it out of your mind and stay relaxed, and I was able to do just that with my 5-1 day yesterday (Almost 6-0, as Luebke vs Guthrie over lost by one run, when it was on pace for most of the game). More than anything, this was very important to me as it pushed me past .500, which is no special accomplishment at all, but considering I started 2-7 and was having doubts that perhaps I was just a one-year fluke in 2011, I now have my full confidence back, and as I’ve said, I PROMISE you that if you continue to follow me, I will continue to reward you. This is just the beginning, as I guarantee you on I’m on the way back up. Let’s keep it going with today’s bets…
(Dollar Amounts For Each Game Will Be Posted In This Thread Later Leading Up To Gametime)
PhiladelphiaPhillies @ San Francisco Giants (Best Bet)
JoeBlanton vs Madison Bumgarner
UNDER 7
Unfortunately, if you didn’t catch this bet last night, you may have missed your opportunityto catch it at 7, but the fact that Vegas changed it so quickly overnight to 6.5 should tell you something. One, why is this certain pitching matchup worthy of the 6.5 tag? Why did it garner such a quick turnaround after opening up at 7? After all, it’s only Joe Blanton - the obvious weak link of the Philadelphia rotation - and Madison Bumgarner, who is a very solid, if unspectacular, young pitcher. I’m actually hoping the line returns to 7, as I want to put more onit, and luckily, we have all day to wait leading up to gametime.
Now here’s why I like it. First, Bumgarner is the more established pitcher so he’sour better hope in winning us this bet. He’s coming off a fantastic road startin which he shut down a formidable Colorado offense to the tune of four hits and one run over 7+ innings, and I think that’s something he will build off of,as he continues to carve out a successful big-league career. In the bigger landscape of things, he’s ultimately going to end up with solid numbers in 2012, and this start tonight will continue to lead to that. He actually dominated Philly in his one start last year against them at home (8 innings, sixhits, 9 strikeouts, two runs), and that came against a tougher Phillies lineup. Bottom line: Bumgarner should continue his steady run here, just as he showed us last year; he’s a very consistent pitcher who goes through extended stretches of good pitching. Hopefully we’re catching him as he starts up another one of said stretches.
Blanton is the question mark for this under, but I like this spot here for him, which really says something because I rarely get a vibe on a Joe Blanton over/under (To my credit, though, while I only took four of his games last year, I was 4-0 in his starts). Blanton, despite being the obvious weak link in the Phillies’stacked rotation, also gets the privilege of being able to pitch under the radar with that moniker. While there’s several justified reasons for that, as Blanton really hasn’t lived up to potential after showing flashes of greatness in the beginning of his career in Oakland, it’s possible that maybe he is returning to old form, especially after such a dominant first start of the season in which he completely baffled a potent Marlins lineup at home. In that game, he held them to three hits and one run over seven strong, while striking out three and walking one. Who expected that from Blanton against the Marlinsin a hitter’s park? While I don’t think this automatically means Blanton is going to have a great 2012, I do believe he can at least start out the year right and continue his success from his first start. While there’s also the variable of being on MLB Network tonight in certain parts of the country, I think we’ll somewhat surprisingly get a pitcher’s duel (As Vegas apparently expects also) in the form of a 4-2/3-2 kind of game. Go under, even if it’s 6.5, but certainly wait until 10 PM (EST) to see if it goes back up to 7.
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox
Colby Lewis vs Jon Lester
OVER 8
This is a very, very rare occurrence, as a game between the mighty offenses of the Rangers and Red Sox opened up with an over/under of only eight. Let that sink in. Eight. Even without looking at the pitching matchup, you have to believe these teams are going to score runs, just as they always do against each other. I’m a Rangers fan so it’s easier for me to pull that off the top of my head, but to assure you it is a fact of life, look at their scores in Fenway last year: 10-0, 12-7, 11-4. In 2010, two of their three Fenway games pitted against each other resulted in outcomes of 7-6 and 8-7. It’s just something I’ve noticed throughout the years is when these teams get together, especially at Fenway, the end result is almost always some ridiculously high score. I really liked the over of this game even before I saw the line (Another tip for you guys that I suggest: ALWAYS look at the pitching matchups BEFORE looking at the lines. Trust me).
Now, let’s break down the pitching matchup. Of course, the over won’t be too easy, as we have two real quality starting pitchers involved. Colby Lewis is a guy I’ve been a fan of even before he went to Japan, since the early 2000’s when he first graced Texas with his presence. He’s a James Shields-like pitcher in that he’s a guy that just knows how to pitch. Very high baseball IQ, knows what to do in situations, and he has the stuff to succeed, as he’s proven in the regular season and playoffs. There’s no question Lewis has turned it around from his awful first stint in the Majors, and it is no fluke at all. I just have a vibe that he’ll get hit a bit by a very frustrated and angry Red Sox lineup. It also helps that he got absolutely rocked by Boston last year, and over a decent-sized sample of three starts (15 innings, 22 hits, 14 runs, 7walks. Ouch).
Then there’s Jon Lester, another fellow good pitcher who is hard to hit. But, like Lewis, he struggled against his opponent on this evening last year, when he surrendered five runs in just over five innings. Listen, getting on the over ofthis game is no dis-credit to the two pitchers in this game because they are really fabulous at what they do - pitch in big games and come up with gutsy performances. But on this night, included with the variable of being on MLB Network in certain portions of the country, I really like the over. Considering the line went from over 8 (-115) to over 8.5 (-125) overnight so quickly, it’sapparent that Vegas really likes the over as well.
Other 4/17/12 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Jeff Niemann vs Ricky Romero UNDER 9
Drew Smyly vs Bruce Chen OVER 9
Wandy Rodriguez vs Gio Gonzalez UNDER 7
Justin Masterson vs Kevin Millwood UNDER 7
Johan Santana vs Randall Delgado UNDER 7
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
