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CJ Wilson Faces A's In Angels Home Debut

Fans in Anaheim finally get to cheer for CJ Wilson at the Big A when the Angels and Oakland Athletics close out a 4-game series Thursday. Tommy Milone is scheduled to start for Oakland in this matchup of lefties that gets underway at 10:05 p.m. (ET).

Wilson has pitched off the mound at Angel Stadium before, but those appearances came in a Texas Rangers uniform. The southpaw was enormously successful for the Rangers the past two years when Texas went 45-22 in his regular season starts, 3-2 with a 1.25 ERA in Anaheim in five assignments.

He's off to a 2-0 beginning with his new club following wins at Minnesota and New York, allowing just two runs in 13 innings of work as a -150 favorite and +115 underdog respectively. Eight assignments vs. Oakland the past two campaigns resulted in six Texas wins with Wilson sporting a 3.01 ERA.

Milone was part of the return Oakland received in the winter deal that sent Gio Gonzalez to the Washington Nationals. He was up with the Nats last September with very good results, all five of his starts ending in Washington victories while the former Southern Cal Trojan posted a 3.81 ERA and 15:4 strikeout to walk ratio in 26 frames. He made a great first impression on the A's with eight shutout innings in a 1-0 win vs. Kansas City on April 9, but dropped a 4-0 decision last Saturday in Seattle (6 IP, 4 ER).

The first two games of the series were split with the Angels winning 6-0 Monday as -170 chalk behind Jered Weaver and the A's rallying for a 5-3 victory Tuesday as +170 underdogs. Game 3 on Wednesday had the Halos laying -160 on the Don Best odds screen with a 7-run total.

Off To Fast Start, Nats Close Series With Astros
Davey Johnson has the Nationals off to their best start since relocating from Montreal after the '04 season, and Washington could be taking aim at a 4-game sweep Thursday in the series finale with the Houston Astros (7:05 p.m. ET).

The Nationals (9-3, +5.6 units) won the first two games of the series (6-3 and 1-0) behind young hurlers Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez, favorites of -250 and -160 respectively. Washington was again heavy chalk for Wednesday's Game 3 (-190) with Jordan Zimmermann on the mound opposite Lucas Harrell. The result was still pending at press.

Thursday's series ender could result in a bunch of K's on the scorecard with Houston's Bud Norris facing Washington's Edwin Jackson. Norris has two no-decisions to show for his starts this season, but both have ended with Houston triumphs. The beefy right-hander averaged nearly nine strikeouts per nine innings the past two seasons in 58 starts for the Astros. This will be his third career assignment vs. the Nats, Houston splitting the previous two.

Jackson will be making his fifth start vs. Houston, and the previous four each finished in victory for his various teams. He's coming off a complete game 2-hitter last Saturday vs. Cincinnati, no-hitting the Reds over the final seven innings of the 4-1 triumph.

Darvish Up In Rangers-Tigers Series Opener
While those two 4-game series come to an end, a huge foursome of games in Motown begin. From the Don Best Sports "It's Never Too Early" Department, this potential ALCS clash between the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers gets underway at 7:05 p.m. (ET) Thursday when Adam Wilk makes his second career start for the home team against Yu Darvish who is making his third.

Both clubs will be traveling after evening road games on Wednesday. The Rangers fly in from Boston while the Tigers are coming out of Kansas City. Motown has been on the list of places to avoid for Texas, who is 4-16 its last 20 games there and lost 11 straight in Detroit from 2007-2009. Of course, the Tigers have been beating a lot of teams at home; Detroit won at least 50 games at Comerica Park each of the past three years (4-2 vs. Rangers in 2011).

Wilk filled the role of long reliever for about six weeks in '11, and was called up last weekend to be the fill-in for Doug Fister who is on the DL. It hasn't been a smooth transition from Toledo to Detroit for Wilk. Oh, he didn't pitch badly in his first MLB start Saturday at the White Sox – 5 IP, 2 ER both on solo homers. The reason he didn't come out in the sixth wasn't the stats, but instead due to getting drilled in the dugout by a Prince Fielder foul in the top of the inning.

It hasn't exactly been a smooth transition into the major leagues by Darvish either. At times brilliant, other times rocky, the latest Japanese import has been otherwise effective with Texas winning both of his starts. He's undoubtedly going to draw at least a moderate chalk line in this game, and two stats really stand out: eight walks and .340 batting average against in 11-1/3 IP.

Darvish will be pitching on 5-days rest in this one; Texas had Monday off and could've gone with Matt Harrison, but manager Ron Washington wanted to break up his southpaws (Harrison and Derek Holland), so gave Harrison the extra time off while keeping Darvish on his normal schedule.
 

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Nationals And Dodgers Lead Early MLB Betting

The Dodgers have performed much better on the money line than the run line.

The daily MLB standings that appear in the newspaper make for a good read, but handicappers are usually looking for something a little bit different as they gauge how teams are performing as the season progresses.

A standings board, reflecting performance vs. both the Money Line and Run Line, might be more appropriate.

Of course, the dynamics of such calculations can change quickly, which is why we would suggest looking at recent Money line and Run Line performance more than full-season numbers. That, however, comes into the equation once the campaign has progressed beyond the first few weeks, when we might suggest adding a more-recent calculation alongside the season-long numbers.

In mid-April, however, we can take a look at the body of work for the entire season to date and come up with some interesting observations about which teams are really providing the value, and which one are not.

Following, thus, are the unit “standings” vs. the Money Line through action of Tuesday, April 17.

AL WEST
Texas +531
Seattle +89
Oakland -151
LA Angels -613

AL CENTRAL
Detroit +433
Cleveland +107
Chicago White Sox +31
Minnesota -358
Kansas City -434

AL EAST
Baltimore +460
Toronto +60
Tampa Bay -31
NY Yankees -45
Boston -350

NL WEST
LA Dodgers +718
Arizona +257
San Francisco -146
Colorado -244
San Diego -619

NL CENTRAL
St. Louis +511
Pittsburgh -134
Milwaukee -160
Houston -161
Cincinnati -357
Chicago Cubs -419

NL EAST
Washington +580
NY Mets +476
Atlanta -70
Miami -155
Philadelphia -387

Striking about the numbers above is how so few NL teams have been offering good value outside of the Dodgers, Cardinals, Nationals and Mets who have consumed most of the oxygen in senior circuit over the first two weeks of action. Indeed, only five of the 16 NL sides (Arizona in addition to the four just mentioned) sit on the “plus” side of the Money Line through April 17. Note exceptionally poor value in the early going offered by the Padres at -619 (which figures after losing 6 of 7 vs. the Dodgers in the early going) and the Phillies, who continue to be overpriced and stood at -387 on the Money Line through April 17.

The Money Line numbers in the AL are not quite as illuminating, although the Rangers, Tigers and Orioles have provided excellent value thus far. It should be noted that Baltimore’s “non-Yankees” ML record would be +760 units minus that three-game sweep vs. the Bronx Bombers last week. On the negative side, be careful before backing the slow-starting Angels, who didn’t win any of their first three series and stood at an AL-worst -613 units on the Money Line through Tuesday’s action.

Following are Run Line standings by division, also through April 17.

AL WEST
Seattle +349
Texas +116
LA Angels -33
Oakland -653

AL CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox +305
Detroit +134
Kansas City -51
Cleveland -439
Minnesota -539

AL EAST
Baltimore +584
Toronto +575
Boston +94
NY Yankees -248
Tampa Bay -337

NL WEST
Arizona +668
San Francisco +154
LA Dodgers +149
Colorado -450
San Diego -616

NL CENTRAL
St. Louis +593
Pittsburgh +272
Houston +190
Cincinnati -217
Chicago Cubs -342
Milwaukee -399

NL EAST
NY Mets +205
Washington -58
Atlanta -86
Philadelphia -219
Miami -421

Run Line results, of course, aren’t going to always correspond exactly with Money Line results simply because of the one-run decisions that can make a winning side a losing side in this wager. That partially explains why the Dodgers, despite their 9-2 break from the gate and excellent Money Line performance to date, have not provided the same value on the Run Line, having lost in that wager in a handful of those one-run decisions.

Conversely, a losing side can often “win” a Run Line, although the calculation apparatus can be skewed far away from the traditional Money Line in the Run Line, wherein a ML underdog can often be a high-priced favorite plus the extra run on the RL.

Still, these are some similarities in the early Money Line and Run Line standings. In the AL, note that the Orioles (+584 RL) are providing good early value in both the RL and ML; Toronto is also rewarding its RL backers to the tune of +575 units thus far. Seattle (+349 RL) and the White Sox (+305) are other AL sides to note on the positive side of the RL through the first two weeks, while the Twins (-539) and A’s (-653) have burned their Run Line backers consistently.

In the NL, the Cardinals have replicated their solid Money Line performance by also providing excellent value (+593) on the Run Line to date, although it’s Arizona (+668) leading the Run Line standings for all of the senior circuit. On the bottom end, the Rockies (-450 RL), Marlins (-421) and Brewers (-399) have hurt their Run Line backers. Curiously, the Mets (+205) are the only NL East side with a profitable Run Line performance to date.

We’ll be periodically updating these Money Line and Run Line standings as the 2012 season progresses. Stay tuned!
 

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Around the Horn - Thursday

April 18, 2012


NATIONAL LEAGUE


Chicago at Miami - 12:40 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Samardzija (2-0, 3.95 ERA) 3-9 3-6 L9 vs RHP
Nolasco (1-0, 3.46 ERA) 6-6 OVER 3-1 L4 during day

Marlins beat Cubs, 5-2 on Tuesday
Marlins beat Cubs, 9-1 on Wednesday


Los Angeles at Milwaukee - 1:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Harang (0-1, 5.91 ERA) 9-3 3-1 L4 vs LHP
Wolf (0-1, 10.61 ERA) 6-6 OVER 6-2 L7 vs RHP

Brewers beat Dodgers, 5-4 on Tuesday
Brewers beat Dodgers, 3-2 on Wednesday

Cincinnati at St. Louis - 1:45 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Arroyo (0-0, 2.63 ERA) 4-8 1-6 L7 vs RHP
Wainwright (0-2, 11.42 ERA) 9-3 8-3 L11 vs division

Cardinals beat Reds, 2-1 on Tuesday
Cardinals beat Reds, 11-1 on Wednesday

Houston at Washington - 7:05 PM EST (Game 4/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Norris (0-0, 3.46 ERA) 4-8 3-7 L10 vs RHP
Jackson (1-0, 2.57 ERA) 10-3 8-3 L11 vs RHP

Nationals beat Astros, 6-3 on Monday
Nationals beat Astros, 1-0 on Tuesday
Nationals beat Astros, 3-2 on Wednesday

Atlanta at Arizona - 9:40 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Minor (1-1, 4.38 ERA) 5-7 OVER 4-2 L6 away
Collmenter (0-0, 12.86 ERA) 7-5 4-2 L6 home

Braves beat Mets, 14-6 on Wednesday
Pirates beat Diamondbacks, 2-1 on Wednesday

Philadelphia at San Diego - 10:15 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Worley (0-1, 3.75 ERA) 5-7 OVER 7-2 L9 vs RHP
Wieland (0-1, 10.80 ERA) 3-10 2-4 L6 vs RHP

Phillies lost to Giants, 1-0 on Wednesday
Padres lost to Rockies, 8-4 on Wednesday

AMERICAN LEAGUE


Baltimore at Chicago - 2:10 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hammel (1-0, 2.08 ERA) 7-5 3-1 L4 during day
Floyd (1-1, 3.09 ERA) 6-6 UNDER 4-1 L5 during day

Orioles beat White Sox, 10-4 on Monday
Orioles beat White Sox, 3-2 on Tuesday
White Sox beat Orioles, 8-1 on Wednesday

Texas at Detroit - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Darvish (1-0, 4.76 ERA) 10-2 5-0 L5 away
Wilk (0-1, 3.60 ERA) 9-3 5-1 L6 home

Rangers beat Red Sox, 6-3 on Wednesday
Tigers beat Royals, 4-3 on Wednesday

Minnesota at N.Y. Yankees - 7:05 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Swarzak (0-2, 3.75 ERA) 4-8 2-4 L6 away
Hughes (0-2, 9.00 ERA) 6-6 5-3 L8 at night

Twins beat Yankees, 7-3 on Monday
Yankees beat Twins, 8-3 on Tuesday
Twins beat Yankees, 6-5 on Wednesday

Tampa Bay at Toronto - 7:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hellickson (1-0, 3.29 ERA) 6-6 3-6 L9 away
Alvarez (0-0, 2.77 ERA) 6-5 OVER 6-2 L8 home

Blue Jays beat Rays, 7-3 on Tuesday
Rays beat Blue Jays, 12-2 on Wednesday

Oakland at Los Angeles - 10:05 PM EST (Game 4/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Milone (1-1, 2.57 ERA) 6-7 4-6 L10 vs division
Wilson (2-0, 1.38 ERA) 4-8 UNDER 6-2 L8 off loss

Angels beat Athletics, 6-0 on Monday
Athletics beat Angels, 5-3 on Tuesday
Athletics beat Angels, 6-0 on Wednesday

Cleveland at Seattle - 10:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Tomlin (0-1, 8.31 ERA) 5-5 OVER 4-1 L5 away
Hernandez (1-1, 3.80 ERA) 7-6 OVER 9-3 L12 vs CLE

Indians beat Mariners, 9-8 on Tuesday
Mariners beat Indians, 4-1 on Wednesday
 

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Diamond Trends - Thursday

April 19, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:


The White Sox are 0-12 since April 13, 2011 at home after scoring 6+ runs in a night game for a net profit of $1499 when playing against.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Cubs are 13-0 OU since April 16, 2011 when playing a night game as a road dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1300 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:


The Brewers are 0-8 OU since May 17, 2011 when Randy Wolf starts after the team won their last two games for a net profit of $800 when playing the under.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


The Marlins are 27-0 (3.4 rpg) since 2005 as a home favorite -130+ off a win where their starter faced 27+ batters and allowed eight or fewer hits and it is not a series opener.

TODAY’S TRENDS:


The Yankees are 12-0 since April 14, 2011 at home when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $1200

The Astros are 0-14 since April 05, 2011 as a 140+ dog vs a team that has won at least their last three games for a net profit of $1400 when playing against.
 

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Dunkel


Baltimore at Chicago White Sox
The Orioles look to bounce back from yesterday's 8-1 loss and take advantage of a White Sox team that is 3-12 in its last 15 games after scoring 5 or more runs in the previous game. Baltimore is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, APRIL 19

Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at Miami (12:40 p.m. EST
)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 14.882; Miami (Nolasco) 14.211
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Miami (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+140); Under

Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at Milwaukee (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Harang) 15.138; Milwaukee (Wolf) 16.303
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-135); Over

Game 905-906: Cincinnati at St. Louis (1:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.612; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.810
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Over

Game 907-908: Houston at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 15.732; Washington (Jackson) 14.562
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+140); Under

Game 909-910: Atlanta at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 16.543; Arizona (Collmenter) 15.237
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-115); Over

Game 911-912: Philadelphia at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Worley) 14.517; San Diego (Wieland) 15.528
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Under

Game 913-914: Baltimore at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hammel) 15.991; White Sox (Floyd) 15.012
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Under

Game 915-916: Minnesota at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Swarzak) 14.714; NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.248
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-220); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-220); Over

Game 917-918: Tampa Bay at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 14.467; Toronto (Alvarez) 15.837
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-115); Under

Game 919-920: Texas at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 17.391; Detroit (Wilk) 16.312
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-115); Under

Game 921-922: Oakland at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Milone) 15.330; LA Angels (Wilson) 14.059
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+170); Under

Game 923-924: Cleveland at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Tomlin) 16.224; Seattle (Hernandez) 15.00
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+135); Under
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, April 19


Hot pitchers
-- Nolasco is 1-0, 3.46 in two starts this season.
-- Arroyo has a 2.14 RA in his last three starts.
-- Jackson is 1-0, 2.57 in his first two starts for Washington.

-- Hammel is 1-0, 2.08 in two starts this season.
-- Hellickson has a 3.04 RA in his last eight starts. Alvarez has 2.77 RA in his first two starts this season, but doesn't have a decision yet.
-- Wilk allowed three hits, two runs in five IP in his first MLB start.
-- Milone has a 2.57 RA in his first two starts for Oakland. Wilson won his first two Angel starts, allowing two runs in 13 IP.

Cold pitchers
-- Samardzija has 5.27 RA in two starts, but Cubs scored 13 runs and won both games.
-- Harang allowed eight runs in 10.2 IP in two starts this season. Wolf allowed 18 hits, 11 runs in 9.1 IP in two starts this year.
-- Wainwright allowed 11 runs in 8.2 IP in two starts this season.
-- Norris is 0-3, 4.98 in his last eight starts.
-- Minor is 1-2, 3.81 in his last five starts. Collmenter allowed 11 runs in seven IP in two starts this season.
-- Worley is 1-3, 5.16 in his last five starts. Weiland allowed six runs in five IP in losing his MLB debut Saturday.

-- Floyd is 1-4, 4.26 in his last five starts.
-- Swarzak is 1-6, 6.10 in his last nine starts. Hughes put 17 men on base, allowed eight runs in eight IP in losing his two starts this year.
-- Darvish allowed 25 baserunners, seven runs in 11.1 IP in his first two major league starts.
-- FHernandez is 1-4, 5.97 in his last six starts. Tomlin is 0-3, 7.71 in his last three starts.

Hot teams
-- Nationals won eight of their last nine games.
-- Atlanta won seven of its last eight games. Arizona is 4-2 at home, with four one-run games.
-- Marlins won four of their last five games.
-- Cardinals won seven of their last nine games.

-- Texas won its last six games, allowing 15 runs. Tigers won nine of their first twelve games.
-- Bronx won six of its last nine games.
-- Orioles won four of their last six games.
-- Oakland won its last two games, allowing three runs.
-- Indians won four of their last five games, scoring 42 runs.

Cold teams
-- Astros lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Cubs lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Brewers lost four of their last five games, but won last two. Dodgers lost last two games on walk-offs, after their 9-1 start.
-- Cincinnati lost seven of its last nine games.
-- Padres lost nine of their first thirteen games.
-- Phillies are 2-4 in their first six road games.

-- Tampa Bay lost five of its last eight games.
-- White Sox lost three of their last four games.
-- Minnesota lost eight of its first twelve games.
-- Royals lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Mariners are 4-5 in their last nine games.
-- Angels lost eight of their twelve games.

Totals
-- Over is 6-2-1 in Cubs' last nine games.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Dodger road games this season.
-- Seven of last nine Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last ten Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine San Diego games stayed under the total.

-- Eight of eleven White Sox games stayed under total.
-- Last four Bronx games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Tampa Bay road games went over the total.
-- Last six Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-3 in last eight Oakland games.
-- Six of last eight Seattle games stayed under the total.
 

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Thursday, April 19


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12:40 PM
CHI CUBS vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 7 games on the road
Chi Cubs are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs

1:10 PM
LA DODGERS vs. MILWAUKEE
LA Dodgers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 8 games on the road
Milwaukee is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Milwaukee's last 14 games

1:45 PM
CINCINNATI vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Cincinnati is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
St. Louis is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

2:10 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi White Sox's last 10 games at home

7:05 PM
TEXAS vs. DETROIT
Texas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

7:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Houston's last 16 games
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Washington's last 16 games when playing at home against Houston

7:05 PM
MINNESOTA vs. NY YANKEES
Minnesota is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-17 SU in their last 21 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 19-6 SU in their last 25 games when playing Minnesota
NY Yankees are 16-8 SU in their last 24 games at home

7:07 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. TORONTO
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Toronto is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

9:40 PM
ATLANTA vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Atlanta's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games at home

10:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. SAN DIEGO
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 12 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
San Diego is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

10:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. LA ANGELS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
Oakland is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
LA Angels are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland

10:10 PM
CLEVELAND vs. SEATTLE
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Cleveland's last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
 

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Thursday, April 19


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hot lines: Thursday's best MLB bets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins (-155, 7.5)

Chicago has lost four in a row and is already six games out of first in the NL Central.

Miami pounded out a season-high in runs (nine) and hits (14) against the Cubs on Wednesday, riding the hot bat of Hanley Ramirez to its third consecutive victory.

The Marlins are 4-1 on their current homestand at new Marlins Park, improving their season record to 6-6. Ricky Nolasco gets the start for Miami, carrying a 3-2 lifetime record against Chicago into the matchup. The Cubs counter with Jeff Samardzija, who struck out 10 in his first start of the season but ran into some trouble after Chicago built a nine-run lead on the opening game of the roadtrip. Samardzija makes his first career appearance against Miami.

Miami’s Donnie Murphy figures to start again at second base in place of Omar Infante (groin strain). Murphy finished with two hits, two runs scored and three RBIs on Wednesday.

Miami has won four of its last five against the Cubs.

Pick: Marlins


Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks (105, 9.5)


Winners of seven of their last eight, the Braves begin a seven-game road trip against the Diamondbacks on Thursday. The Braves' loud bats were in full swing against the NL East rival Mets as they scored 23 runs to take the final two games of their series.

Second baseman Dan Uggla got untracked, hitting a two-run blast in Wednesday's win.

While Atlanta is surging, Arizona is hurting -- both physically and in the standings. After putting All-Star outfielder Chris Young on the disabled list with a right shoulder injury, the Diamondbacks fell for the fourth time in six games with a 2-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday.

Braves lefty Mike Minor is coming off a fine outing, one run allowed in 7 1/3 innings, while D-Backs starter Josh Collmenter has given up five earned runs in each of his two starts.

Freddie Freeman, who belted a two-run homer in Atlanta's 14-6 victory on Wednesday, has three hits in five career at-bats versus Collmenter.

Pick: Braves
 

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Long Sheet

Thursday, April 19


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CHICAGO CUBS (3 - 9) at MIAMI (6 - 6) - 12:40 PM
JEFF SAMARDZIJA (R) vs. RICKY NOLASCO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 648-654 (-124.0 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1133-1191 (-217.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 875-938 (-164.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1190-1275 (-239.8 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
MIAMI is 35-49 (-20.7 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 53-73 (-18.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 35-49 (-20.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

JEFF SAMARDZIJA vs. MIAMI since 1997
SAMARDZIJA is 1-0 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.1 units)

RICKY NOLASCO vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
NOLASCO is 2-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.100.
His team's record is 3-3 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-3. (-0.2 units)

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LA DODGERS (9 - 3) at MILWAUKEE (6 - 6) - 1:10 PM
AARON HARANG (R) vs. RANDY WOLF (L)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 26-9 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 65-28 (+28.9 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 87-56 (+23.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 59-32 (+20.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 65-28 (+28.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 35-12 (+18.5 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
WOLF is 150-121 (+31.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
WOLF is 87-69 (+32.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

AARON HARANG vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
HARANG is 5-5 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 4.24 and a WHIP of 1.422.
His team's record is 13-8 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-10. (+0.6 units)

RANDY WOLF vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
WOLF is 4-4 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.29 and a WHIP of 1.424.
His team's record is 7-5 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-7. (-2.7 units)

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CINCINNATI (4 - 8) at ST LOUIS (9 - 3) - 1:45 PM
BRONSON ARROYO (R) vs. ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 82-90 (-20.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 84-91 (-18.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 86-59 (+14.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 417-476 (+41.7 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 28-18 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 567-656 (+43.7 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
ST LOUIS is 100-92 (-34.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 4-1 (+3.0 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.8 Units)

BRONSON ARROYO vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
ARROYO is 7-12 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.52 and a WHIP of 1.372.
His team's record is 12-17 (-4.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-17. (-7.7 units)

ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 3-4 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.259.
His team's record is 4-4 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-4. (-1.1 units)

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HOUSTON (4 - 8) at WASHINGTON (10 - 3) - 7:05 PM
BUD NORRIS (R) vs. EDWIN JACKSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 59-114 (-38.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 38-87 (-37.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 24-58 (-23.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 61-115 (-36.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-45 (-23.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 26-62 (-23.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 36-72 (-32.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 90-85 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 58-55 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 48-41 (+12.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 90-85 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 35-26 (+18.5 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 3 seasons.
NORRIS is 6-0 (+8.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NORRIS is 9-3 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against HOUSTON this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)

BUD NORRIS vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
NORRIS is 1-0 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.63 and a WHIP of 1.244.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

EDWIN JACKSON vs. HOUSTON since 1997
JACKSON is 2-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.80 and a WHIP of 1.099.
His team's record is 4-0 (+4.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.4 units)

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ATLANTA (7 - 5) at ARIZONA (7 - 5) - 9:40 PM
MIKE MINOR (L) vs. JOSH COLLMENTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 27-39 (-18.1 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 52-37 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 104-77 (+26.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 38-20 (+18.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 14-6 (+9.2 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 58-33 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 29-13 (+14.2 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 104-77 (+26.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 77-53 (+23.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MIKE MINOR vs. ARIZONA since 1997
No recent starts.

JOSH COLLMENTER vs. ATLANTA since 1997
COLLMENTER is 1-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 0.69 and a WHIP of 0.692.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.3 units)

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PHILADELPHIA (5 - 7) at SAN DIEGO (3 - 10) - 10:05 PM
VANCE WORLEY (R) vs. JOE WIELAND (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 40-76 (-35.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 25-37 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 74-102 (-20.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 49-73 (-23.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 9-22 (-12.5 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 37-51 (-17.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 37-49 (-15.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 12-27 (-15.3 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 74-102 (-20.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

VANCE WORLEY vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
No recent starts.

JOE WIELAND vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
No recent starts.
 

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BALTIMORE (7 - 5) at CHI WHITE SOX (6 - 5) - 2:10 PM
JASON HAMMEL (R) vs. GAVIN FLOYD (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 39-48 (-21.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 41-50 (-21.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 39-48 (-21.1 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 25-33 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
FLOYD is 17-31 (-18.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-1 (+1.2 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

JASON HAMMEL vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
HAMMEL is 0-0 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 3.55 and a WHIP of 1.421.
His team's record is 2-0 (+3.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.3 units)

GAVIN FLOYD vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
FLOYD is 4-2 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.56 and a WHIP of 1.083.
His team's record is 4-3 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.1 units)

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MINNESOTA (4 - 8) at NY YANKEES (6 - 6) - 7:05 PM
ANTHONY SWARZAK (R) vs. PHIL HUGHES (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 67-108 (-27.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 65-103 (-24.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 46-80 (-24.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 60-58 (-19.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 250-163 (-62.9 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-1 (+2.7 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

ANTHONY SWARZAK vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
SWARZAK is 0-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 8.31 and a WHIP of 2.079.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

PHIL HUGHES vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
HUGHES is 2-0 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 1.83 and a WHIP of 1.017.
His team's record is 3-0 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.2 units)

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TAMPA BAY (6 - 6) at TORONTO (6 - 5) - 7:05 PM
JEREMY HELLICKSON (R) vs. HENDERSON ALVAREZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 155-110 (+28.7 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997.
TAMPA BAY is 440-535 (+23.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 1-1 (+0.0 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

JEREMY HELLICKSON vs. TORONTO since 1997
HELLICKSON is 1-0 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 4.26 and a WHIP of 1.263.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-2. (-2.3 units)

HENDERSON ALVAREZ vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
ALVAREZ is 0-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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TEXAS (10 - 2) at DETROIT (9 - 3) - 7:05 PM
YU DARVISH (R) vs. ADAM WILK (L)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 110-77 (+23.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 104-75 (+17.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 111-69 (+21.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 85-49 (+18.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 117-74 (+21.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

YU DARVISH vs. DETROIT since 1997
No recent starts.

ADAM WILK vs. TEXAS since 1997
No recent starts.

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OAKLAND (6 - 7) at LA ANGELS (4 - 8) - 10:05 PM
TOM MILONE (L) vs. C.J. WILSON (L)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 94-125 (-33.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 619-533 (+67.8 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997.
WILSON is 34-15 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
OAKLAND is 34-32 (+30.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +200 since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 112-124 (-29.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-1 (+2.2 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)

TOM MILONE vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
No recent starts.

C.J. WILSON vs. OAKLAND since 1997
WILSON is 4-2 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.85 and a WHIP of 1.174.
His team's record is 6-2 (+3.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.2 units)

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CLEVELAND (5 - 5) at SEATTLE (7 - 6) - 10:10 PM
JOSH TOMLIN (R) vs. FELIX HERNANDEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 2-12 (-9.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 65-55 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 23-13 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 133-190 (-50.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 136-202 (-57.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-25 (-18.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-1 (+0.0 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.0 Units)

JOSH TOMLIN vs. SEATTLE since 1997
TOMLIN is 2-1 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 6.23 and a WHIP of 1.442.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-0. (+3.3 units)

FELIX HERNANDEZ vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
HERNANDEZ is 5-3 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 2.80 and a WHIP of 1.306.
His team's record is 6-4 (+0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-6. (-2.4 units)
 

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Short Sheet

Thursday, April 19


National League

Chicago Cubs at Miami, 12:40 ET
WGN
Samardzija: Cubs 26-16 off loss by 6+ runs
Nolasco: MIA 17-3 Over as a home favorite of -125 to -150

LA Dodgers at Milwaukee, 1:10 ET MLB
Harang: 48-40 TSR as road underdog
Wolf: 20-5 Under working on 5 or 6 days rest

Cincinanti at St. Louis, 1:45 ET
Arroyo: CIN 28-18 Away off loss
Wainwright: 1-6 TSR working on 5 or 6 days rest

Houston at Washington, 7:05 ET
Norris: HOU 38-87 vs. righties
Jackson: WASH 26-7 off one run win

Atlanta at Arizona, 9:40 ET
Minor: ATL 25-10 Over vs. NL West
Collmenter: ARI 16-8 as home dog

Philadelphia at San Diego, 10:05 ET
Worley: PHI 35-17 Under Away if total is 7 or less
Wieland: SD 3-15 off BB division road losses


American League

Baltimore at Chicago White Sox, 2:10 ET

Hammel: BAL 12-32 off loss by 4+ runs
Floyd: 17-31 TSR when the total is 8 to 8.5

Minnesota at NY Yankees, 7:05 ET MLB
Swarzak: MIN 2-17 if bullpen threw 9+ innings L2 games
Hughes: 12-1 Over as favorite of -200 or more

Tampa Bay at Toronto, 7:07 ET
Hellickson: TB 47-27 Under off an Over
Alvarez: TOR 11-2 at home off division loss by 6+ runs

Texas at Detroit, 7:05 ET MLB
Darvish: TEX 9-1 Under as favorite
Wilk: DET 23-10 Over at home when the total is 9 to 9.5

Oakland at LA Angels, 10:05 ET MLB
Milone: Oak 49-90 off underdog division win
Wilson: 38-14 TSR as favorite

Cleveland at Seattle, 10:10 ET MLB
Tomlin: CLE 2-12 when total is 7 or less
Hernandez: 15-4 Under on Thursday
 

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

04/18/12 16-*14-*0 53.33% +*1125 Detail
04/17/12 16-*13-*1 55.17% +*445 Detail
04/16/12 11-*8-*1 57.89% +*1135 Detail
04/15/12 15-*15-*0 50.00% -*605 Detail
04/14/12 17-*11-*2 60.71% +*3405 Detail
04/13/12 13-*17-*0 43.33% -*2560 Detail
04/12/12 9-*8-*1 52.94% +*20 Detail
04/11/12 16-*14-*0 53.33% +*1145 Detail
04/10/12 13-*7-*1 65.00% +*2885 Detail
04/09/12 13-*10-*0 56.52% +*1880 Detail
04/08/12 13-*14-*0 48.15% -*640 Detail
04/07/12 15-*14-*0 51.72% -*440 Detail
04/06/12 3-*6-*1 33.33% -*1775 Detail

Totals 170-*151-*7 52.96% +6020


MLB

Thursday, April 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chi. Cubs - 12:40 PM ET Miami -152 500
Miami - Under 7 500

LA Dodgers - 1:10 PM ET Milwaukee -132 500
Milwaukee - Under 8.5 500

Cincinnati - 1:45 PM ET Cincinnati +148 500
St. Louis - Over 7.5 500

Baltimore - 2:10 PM ET Baltimore +128 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 8 500

Minnesota - 7:05 PM ET Minnesota +197 500
NY Yankees - Over 10 500

Houston - 7:05 PM ET Washington -157 500
Washington - Over 7 500

Texas - 7:05 PM ET Texas -115 500
Detroit - Under 9 500

Tampa Bay - 7:07 PM ET Tampa Bay +106 500
Toronto - Over 8.5 500

Atlanta - 9:40 PM ET Atlanta -111 500
Arizona - Over 9 500

Philadelphia - 10:05 PM ET Philadelphia -118 500
San Diego - Over 7 500

Oakland - 10:05 PM ET Oakland +182 500
LA Angels - Under 7 500

Cleveland - 10:10 PM ET Cleveland +137 500
Seattle - Under 7 500
 

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Phoenix Suns Host LA Clippers In TNT Nightcap

With only five games on the NBA Thursday card, we quickly notice that seven of the 10 teams playing either have clinched and fighting for position, or are still in contention to make the 2012 NBA Playoffs.

Let’s start in Indiana, where the Pacers host the “must-win” Milwaukee Bucks. Milwaukee pulled off a big trade deadline deal acquiring shooting guard Monta Ellis from the Golden State Warriors, but the Bucks are just 10-7 SU/8-9 ATS since the trade heading into Wednesday’s game vs. Washington.

Since the Ellis trade, Milwaukee has had no problem beating up on the NBA weak sisters posting a perfect 9-0 record vs. teams under .500. The problem has been trying to compete with teams heading to the playoffs where they are an anemic 1-7 SU/ATS. Bottom line is Milwaukee must win out, and hope for the Sixers’ struggles to continue down the stretch. The Bucks are just 7-13 ATS this season playing on zero days rest.

The Pacers are surging to the playoffs by quietly posting a league-best 9-1 (7-3 ATS) mark in their last 10 games. With just four games remaining, all at home, the Pacers have all but locked up the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference.

After barely making the playoffs last season as a No. 8 seed, Larry Bird and Frank Vogel have completely changed the roster and culture of the Indiana Pacers. Out went Mike Dunleavy Jr., Josh McRoberts, TJ Ford, James Posey and Brandon Rush. In came George Hill, Leandro Barbosa, David West, Louis Amundson, Jeff Pendergraph and Kyrylo Fesenko. Frank Vogel has done a remarkable job this season leading Indiana and must be considered a Coach of the Year candidate alongside Gregg Popovich, Tom Thibodeau and Doc Rivers. Indiana is 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Bucks this season.

Both Houston and Phoenix are also in action on Thursday. These two teams are tied for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference; as of today, Phoenix would get the nod via tie-breaker.

Phoenix will host the Los Angeles Clippers, a team they Suns beat two out of three this season. All three games have fallen 'under' the posted total. Phoenix, 7-3 SU/ATS in its last 10, has covered 13 of the last 16 at home. It goes without saying, this game matters a great deal more to the Suns than it does to the Clippers.

The Rockets travel to New Orleans to face the suddenly surging Hornets. New Orleans has covered six straight overall and eight in a row at home. During their recent ATS win streak, the Hornets have knocked off playoff-bound Memphis, Denver and the Clippers.

Speaking of streaks, Houston has lost four straight, all to teams battling to make the playoffs (Denver twice, Phoenix and Utah). The Rockets, who play Dallas on Wednesday, post an impressive 12-9 ATS record on zero days rest.

You must go to the Don Best Screen for accurate injury updates before wagering on this game. Both teams have key players who will be “questionable” for this game to include both Rockets big men, Marcus Camby and Samuel Dalembert. The Rockets beat New Orleans in their only meeting this season 90-88 (OT).
 

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Hoop Trends - Thursday

April 19, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Pacers are 16-0-1 ATS (10.1 ppg) since April 07, 1999 as a favorite with at least one day of rest after a road win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Bucks are 0-10 OU (-14.8 ppg) since December 21, 2010 as a road dog after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:


The Hornets are 11-0-1 ATS (5.7 ppg) since February 23, 2011 after losing the previous matchup on the road in which Trevor Ariza was not the Hornets’ high scorer.

CHOICE TREND:


The Suns are 0-9 OU (-18.3 ppg) since November 14, 2001 at home with no rest when their opponent has averaged fewer than 13 turnovers per game on the road season-to-date.

TODAY’S TRENDS:


The Pistons are 8-0 ATS (6.2 ppg) since April 13, 2008 as a favorite when seeking revenge for a loss in which they led at the half.

The Bulls are 8-0 OU (16.5 ppg) since November 30, 2009 after winning the previous matchup at home in which Derrick Rose played fewer than 30 minutes.

The Suns are 0-7 OU (-12.2 ppg) since January 07, 2011 after a loss at home in which Steve Nash took fewer than 10 shots.
 

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Inside the Paint - Thursday

April 19, 2012

Yesterday’s card in the Association featured an eye-opening 14 games and if you played the favorites, then you’re probably still out celebrating. The ‘chalk’ went 12-2 straight up and 11-3 against the spread yesterday and most of the results were never in doubt. It’s fair to say that Houston was the worst underdog beat of the night as it was outscored by 13 points against Dallas in the fourth quarter. And if you bet on the Bobcats or Raptors, then shame on you.

Total players watched the ‘over’ go 10-4 and that could’ve easily been 11-3 if Oklahoma City and Phoenix put up any points in the last two minutes. Then again, who would’ve expected Portland and Utah to combine for 62 points in the final quarter, right?

It’s been a wild season, especially for bettors, and the action continues tonight with five more matchups. Let’s break ‘em down!
Milwaukee at Indiana: This is a must-win spot for the Bucks, who are coming off a huge loss at Washington (112-121) last night. The Bucks now trail the 76ers by 2 ½-games for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Indiana will clinch the No. 3 seed in the East with one win or one Boston loss. These teams met last Saturday in Milwaukee and the Pacers captured a 104-99 victory as 3 ½-point underdogs. They also met in late March and Indiana posted a 21-point (125-104) win at home. The Pacers are only giving 5 ½-points here which seems low considering they’ve won six straight and 10 of 11 (8-3 ATS). Meanwhile, Milwaukee has dropped four of five and the defense has allowed 109, 111, 105 and 121 points in those setbacks. Do you take the desperate team or the better team?

Minnesota at Detroit: Betting on a meaningless game between non-playoff teams doesn’t bode well for your bankroll. Can you really consider taking the Timberwolves with the points knowing that they’ve lost 11 straight (3-8 ATS) games? Or do you give the number with Detroit, who is coming off a 32-point whitewashing in Atlanta (84-116) last night. The Pistons have been respectable (8-12 SU, 10-10 ATS) on zero days rest this season. Delving into the numbers further, the ‘over’ has gone 15-5 (75%) in those 20 games, which could be the look tonight. The total opened 194 at BetOnline.com and has jumped up to 197. The Pistons have seen the ‘over’ go 10-1 in their last 11 due to a lack of defense and up-tempo style, plus they have some gunners on the outside. Minnesota’s offense isn’t as consistent, which could put this number in jeopardy. The pair met on Jan. 18 and the Wolves stopped the Pistons 93-85 as nine-point favorites.

Houston at New Orleans: Here we have another matchup where one team (Houston) faces the must-win situation. If Houston wins, it will be tied for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West with Utah. The public has backed the Rockets here, which has moved the line from 3 to 5 at most betting shops. A rule of thumb in gambling is to never bet on a slumping team and that’s exactly what Houston is these days. The Rockets are 0-5 in their last five, plus they’re playing on no rest after last night’s collapse in Dallas (110-117). New Orleans doesn’t have as much talent as Houston or a lot of other teams in the Association, yet it’s managed to produce a 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS mark in April. Eric Gordon is listed as ‘probable’ for the Hornets and if you believe it matters, this is the last home game of the season for NOLA. The Rockets nipped New Orleans 90-88 in overtime on Jan. 18, but failed to cover as 9 ½-point home favorites. Make a note that Houston is 3-1 ATS as a road favorite this season.

Chicago at Miami: Even though these teams will most likely be squaring off in the upcoming Eastern Conference Finals, tonight’s matchup won’t have much buzz. The Bulls need to win two of their final four games to get the top seed in the East and three games for the top overall seed. Point guard Derrick Rose (foot) is ‘doubtful’ and most would expect Luol Deng (ribs) to take another day off too. Chicago is playing in a back-to-back spot after destroying Charlotte (100-68) last night, but none of the starters played over 24 minutes. Miami is coming off a layup win over Toronto (96-72) on Wednesday and it did so without the duties of Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. The Heat lost to Chicago 96-86 last Thursday in overtime and the game never sees the extra session if LeBron James makes a free throw. Miami is only giving 5 1/2-points tonight, which seems like a bargain for a team that has gone 26-4 at home and has routinely posted double-digit wins. However, this Chicago team has been tough without Rose (14-10) and it should be noted that the reigning MVP played the most minutes against the Heat when Miami beat Chicago 97-93 on Jan. 29. This game is set for 8:05 p.m. ET, with TNT providing national coverage.

L.A. Clippers at Phoenix: Very tough game to handicap here and coincidentally we have another matchup between a hot team and a desperate team. The L.A. Clippers started the season strong and now they’re finishing it even stronger. The Clips are 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 and they bring a five-game win streak into the desert tonight. Last night, the Nuggets earned an impressive win at Denver (104-98) which was preceded by Monday’s home victory over Oklahoma City (92-77). The Clippers control their own destiny for the No. 3 seed but they’ll need to win their final four games or hope the banged-up Lakers give them some help. Similar to Houston, Phoenix can put itself into a tie with Utah for the final playoff spot in the West with a win here tonight. The Suns have played great lately too but they’re thriving more as bullies. Phoenix is 7-4 both SU and ATS in its last 11 with the four setbacks coming to quality clubs (Nuggets, Grizzlies, Spurs, Thunder) and it’s safe to say the Clippers are in that group. Fatigue could be a factor but both the Clippers (10-8 SU, 10-8 ATS) and Suns (11-8 SU, 11-8 ATS) have been decent on zero days rest this season. The two clubs played three times and March and the Suns won and covered two of the three. Total players should note that the ‘under’ cashed in all three yet tonight’s number (197.5) is higher than the previous games. TNT will provide national coverage at 10:35 p.m. ET.
 

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Dunkel

Thursday, April 19


Chicago at Miami
The Bulls look to build on their 11-3-1 ATS record in their last 15 Thursday games. Chicago is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+2 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

THURSDAY, APRIL 19

Game 501-502: Milwaukee at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST
)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 117.227; Indiana 120.703
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 3 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 5 1/2; 205
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+5 1/2); Over

Game 503-504: Minnesota at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 109.397; Detroit 116.305
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 7; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 5; 197
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-5); Under

Game 505-506: Houston at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 115.807; New Orleans 121.134
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 3 1/2; 187
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3 1/2); Over

Game 507-508: Chicago at Miami (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 122.070; Miami 123.224
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 1; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+2 1/2); N/A

Game 509-510: LA Clippers at Phoenix (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 123.842; Phoenix 123.948
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, April 19


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MILWAUKEE (29 - 32) at INDIANA (40 - 22) - 4/19/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
MILWAUKEE is 12-21 ATS (-11.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
MILWAUKEE is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 66-48 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after scoring 105 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 4-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 6-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (25 - 38) at DETROIT (23 - 39) - 4/19/2012, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in April games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 31-44 ATS (-17.4 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 50-80 ATS (-38.0 Units) in home games when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (32 - 30) at NEW ORLEANS (19 - 43) - 4/19/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 31-21 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
HOUSTON is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 85-46 ATS (+34.4 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
HOUSTON is 50-21 ATS (+26.9 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
HOUSTON is 36-23 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 7-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 6-3 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (47 - 15) at MIAMI (44 - 17) - 4/19/2012, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-7 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-7 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (39 - 23) at PHOENIX (32 - 30) - 4/19/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 391-458 ATS (-112.8 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 29-49 ATS (-24.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 133-182 ATS (-67.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
PHOENIX is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in home games in April games since 1996.
PHOENIX is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) second half of the season this season.
PHOENIX is 69-44 ATS (+20.6 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 7-4 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 9-2 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, April 19


Hot Teams
-- Indiana won its last six gams, covered last five.
-- Hornets won six of last eight home games (8-0 vs spread).
-- Bulls won four of their last five games. Miami won its last four tilts (3-1 vs spread).
-- Clippers won last five games, covered last three on road. Phoenix won 11 of its last 14 home games; they're 2-3 in last five overall.

Cold Teams
-- Bucks lost four of their last five games.
-- Minnesota lost its last 11 games (2-9 vs spread). Pistons lost six of their last eight games.
-- Rockets lost their last five games (0-5 vs spread).

Wear-and-Tear
-- Bucks: 2nd nite in row after three off. Pacers: 5th game/7 nites.
-- T'wolves: 3rd game/4 nites. Pistons: 3rd in row, 6th game/8 nites.
-- Rockets: 4th game/5 nites. Hornets: 4th game/5 nites.
-- Bulls: 4th game/5 nites. Heat: 6th game/8 nites.
-- Clippers: 5th game/7 nites. Suns: 3rd game/4 nites.

Totals
-- Last four Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Minnesota road games went over.
-- Five of last seven Houston games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Chicago road games stayed under.
-- Six of last nine Phoenix home games went over total.

Back-to-Back
-- Bucks are 0-3 vs spread when playing 2nd nite in row on road.
-- Pistons are 1-5 vs spread at home if they played on road nite before.
-- Houston is 4-8 vs spread on road if it played nite before. Hornets are 10-6 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Miami is 6-8 vs spread if it won the night before. Bulls are 5-3 vs spread on road if they played nite before.
-- Clippers are 4-2 vs spread on road if they played nite before. Phoenix is 6-3-1 vs spread at home if they played night before.




NBA

Thursday, April 19


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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. INDIANA
Milwaukee is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Milwaukee is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indiana's last 12 games
Indiana is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

7:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games

8:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Miami's last 21 games when playing Chicago
Miami is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chicago

8:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games on the road
New Orleans is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Houston

10:30 PM
LA CLIPPERS vs. PHOENIX
LA Clippers are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 5 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Phoenix's last 9 games at home
Phoenix is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games at home


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NBA

Thursday, April 19


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NBA Top 5: Injuries to watch heading into postseason
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You can't wait for the playoffs. We get it. This shortened NBA season had its moments and offered new ways to cash in because of its frenzied schedule. But this playing-out-the-string stuff is not fun.

It appears many stars believe the same thing. Several high-profile players have taken time off to rest heading into the postseason. So, while we wait for the second season to begin, let's analyze some of those injuries:

Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls

ODDS TO WIN NBA TITLE: +300

THE SKINNY: Rose, a key to any lengthy Chicago run, is battling a foot issue. But he traveled with the Bulls to Charlotte for Wednesday's game against the Bobcats. Whether he plays or not, for purposes of our discussion, really doesn't matter. What does matter is that tests on Rose's right foot revealed no serious damage. Chicago has officially listed him as day-to-day, but aren't we all? When the games truly start to count, you’ll see Rose, averaging 22.5 points this season, in the red and black.

Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers

ODDS TO WIN NBA TITLE: +1,000

THE SKINNY: Bryant has already missed six games with a shin injury and likely won’t suit up against the Warriors Wednesday. Los Angeles coach Mike Brown didn't exactly rule him out, but hinted he'd probably be in a suit again while the Lakers take on Golden State. This game is immaterial over the long haul. He should be back against San Antonio Friday, and that still leaves him some time to sharpen things before the real games begin. Bryant is averaging 28.1 points and 4.6 assists.

Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat

ODDS TO WIN NBA TITLE: +140

THE SKINNY: Back-to-back games in this shortened season just aren’t his bag anymore. When he plays one, he won't play the other. These decisions are killing people's fantasy teams, but the reality is, when it's "go" time, Wade will be ready. He hasn't played on both sides of a back-to-back since March. Still, Wade has wonderful numbers and will be a key cog as the Heat try to return to the NBA Finals. Wade is averaging 22.6 points per game.

Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

ODDS TO WIN NBA TITLE: +5,000

THE SKINNY: Howard hasn't been as lucky as the previous three. His postseason status is in jeopardy, as the Magic try to journey on without him. Howard, suffering from a back injury, will be re-evaluated in about a week and, at this point, his status lies in just how his body responds to the treatment. But for a player who's averaging 20.6 points and 14.5 rebounds, the only way the Magic are going to go without him, is down.

Amar’e Stoudemire, New York Knicks

ODDS TO WIN NBA TITLE: +3,500

THE SKINNY: The Knicks seem destined for the No. 7 seed and that would likely draw the Heat in Round 1. It could be ugly, but New York has a better shot at the upset if a healthy Stoudemire, out with a back injury, is on the floor. He can play defense when he chooses to and is averaging 17.6 points and eight rebounds. Not bad for a player who has just 43 games under him this season. Stoudemire is on his way and could play against Cleveland Friday. If he gets in a New York postseason groove, you never know what could happen.


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NBA

Thursday, April 19


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Pick 'n' roll: Thursday's best NBA bets
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Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers (-5.5, 205)

Indiana won by six when these teams met in Indianapolis last Saturday.

That loss hurt the Bucks, but not as much as Wednesday's did. Losing to the Wizards in humiliating fashion, Milwaukee now finds itself 2 1/2 games back of Philly for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

The Bucks will be desperate coming into Indy, which has won six straight.

"It's an absolute must-win for us," coach Scott Skiles said. "We have to find a way to get that game.

The road team is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Pick: Bucks


Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons (-5.5, 196)


Detroit took the East-leading Chicago Bulls to overtime on Sunday and unleashed a dominating performance in a 116-77 win over Cleveland on Tuesday. The lead was 100-50 after the third quarter. But after shooting 60 percent in that contest, the Pistons shot 34.8 percent from the floor in a 116-84 loss at Atlanta on Wednesday. Brandon Knight, who led the way with 28 points against Cleveland, slumped to five points on 2-of-9 shooting against the Hawks.

The good news is that everyone is well rested. No one on the roster logged more than 30 minutes in either of the two contests.

The Minnesota Timberwolves may not be tanking, but they sure are fading fast.

The Timberwolves have lost Kevin Love and 11 straight games. After the first week in March, the Timberwolves were battling for a playoff spot. Now they are staring at another winless April. Ricky Rubio’s injury began the downfall, and a handful of games missed by Nikola Pekovic and Michael Beasley accelerated the drop.

The Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite.

Pick: Pistons
 

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Short Sheet

Thursday, April 19


Milwaukee at Indiana, 7:05 ET
Milwaukee: 2-10 ATS revenging home loss
Indiana: 13-4 ATS after scoring 100+ BB Games

Minnesota at Detroit, 7:35 ET
Minnesota: 17-8 Over as road underdog
Detroit: 13-4 ATS at home off loss by 15+

Houston at New Orleans, 8:05 ET
Houston: 10-1 Over Away off 4+ ATS losses
New Orleans: 21-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Chicago at Miami, 8:05 ET TNT
Chicago: 19-7 ATS playing 3rd road game in 5 nights
Miami: 1-5 ATS after allowing 80 pts or less

LA Clippers at Phoenix, 10:35 ET TNT
LA Clippers: 13-5 Under playing on back to back days
Phoenix: 4-17 ATS revenging double digit road loss
 

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Thursday's betting tips: Caps not feisty home dogs

Weather to watch

There’s a 70 to 80 percent chance of rain during Thursday’s Orioles-White Sox matinee in Chicago. Temperatures will hover around 60, with a 12-mph wind blowing straight in from center.

Who’s hot

NBA: The Bucks are 5-0 ATS in their last five visits to Indiana.

NBA: The under is 6-1 in the Hornets’ last seven home games.

NHL: The underdog is 4-0 in the last four Panthers-Devils games.

NHL: The Capitals are 0-4 in their last four games as a home underdog.

MLB: The under is 9-1-1 in Philly’s last 11 games in San Diego.

Who’s not

NBA: The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to Phoenix.

NBA: Minnesota is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games.

NHL: The home team is 2-6 in the last eight Coyotes-Blackhawks games.

NHL: San Jose is 1-6 in its last seven games against the Blues.

MLB: The Rangers are 7-19 in their last 26 games in Detroit.

Key stat

6 – That’s how many years it had been since Devils goalie Martin Brodeur was pulled from a playoff game, but it happened in Monday’s 4-3 loss to Florida. The move surprised Brodeur, who is 100-83 in his playoff career. The 39-year-old future Hall of Famer will be back in net for Thursday’s Game 4 at the Prudential Center.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

T-Wolves center Nikola Pekovic, who had 16 points and 11 rebounds in Tuesday’s loss to Memphis, could be shut down for the rest of the season. Pekovic (13.4 ppg, 7.1 rpg) is having pain in his ankles and is scheduled for surgery after the season. Minnesota visits Detroit on Thursday.

Games of the day

Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals (120, 5)

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat (NA)

Notable quotable

"It was a brutal hit. I saw exactly what happened and it was right in front of me. All four guys missed it. It was hard. The refereeing tonight was a disgrace." – Blackhawks coach Joel Quennville, referring to the hit by Coyotes winger Raffi Torres on Chicago forward Marian Hossa. Torres threw his shoulder into Hossa’s head, sending Hossa to the hospital. Torres is suspended indefinitely pending a Friday hearing, and will miss Thursday’s Game 4 at a minimum.

Notes and tips

Goalie Jaroslav Halak (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday’s Game 4, meaning Brian Elliott will start again for the Blues after making 26 saves in Monday’s 4-3 win in San Jose. Halak got back on the ice Tuesday but it’s unclear when he’ll be ready to return.

With Nicklas Backstrom suspended for Thursday’s Game 4 against Boston, the Capitals will have to juggle their lines. Veteran winger Mike Knuble will be back in the lineup after being a healthy scratch for the first three playoff games. Coach Dale Hunter also might tweak the defensive pairings because the combo of Jeff Schultz and Dennis Wideman has been on the ice for four of Boston’s six goals.

D-backs OF Chris Young was placed on the DL with a shoulder injury Wednesday after crashing hard into the outfield wall Tuesday night. Young was off to a great start with five homers, four doubles, 13 RBIs and a .410 average.

Heat coach Erik Spoelstra rested Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh for Wednesday's game against the Raptors, but both stars should be back in the lineup for Thursday’s home showdown with the Bulls. Wade has been rested for five of the past 11 games.
 

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Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Pointspreads for the Week 1 NFL games.......

Dallas Cowboys +3 @ New Jersey Giants

Philadelphia Eagles -6 @ Cleveland Browns

Washington Redskins +9.5 @ New Orleans Saints

Buffalo Bills +6 @ New Jersey Jets

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 @ Minnesota Vikings

Indianapolis Colts +9 @ Chicago Bears

Miami Dolphins +6 @ Houston Texans

New England Patriots -6.5 @ Tennessee Titans

St Louis Rams +9 @ Detroit Lions

Atlanta Falcons -1 @ Kansas City Chiefs

San Francisco 49ers +5 @ Green Bay Packers

Seattle Seahawks +1 @ Arizona Cardinals

Carolina Panthers -1.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 @ Denver Broncos

Cincinnati Bengals +6 @ Baltimore Ravens

San Diego Chargers -2 @ Oakland Raid


****************


Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Random thoughts on a spring day......

13) Umpire Larry Vanover has umpired three games behind the plate this season; a total of 8 runs scored in those games. Cody Ross was called out on strikes on a 2-2 pitch to end Monday’s 1-0 Tampa Bay win; I am told Ross took all five pitches, none of which were in the strike zone. Looked pretty bad on TV. No one pays to see the umpires dominate a game.

12) Each umpire gets a report from MLB after they ump a game behind the plate; from what I’ve read/heard from people who saw the game, Vanover’s report won’t be a good one. Am curious to see his next game, to see if he narrows that strike zone some.

11) Lookalikes; Bronx pitcher Freddy Garcia and actor Dwayne Johnson, aka the Rock.

10) When Matt Cain tossed a 1-hitter Friday, the game’s only base runner was opposing pitcher James McDonald; it was only the 7th time in MLB history that a team had one base runner in a game, with the pitcher being the base runner. Last time it had happened was 1986; before that, 1963.

9) If I owned the A’s, either MLB lets me build a stadium in San Jose, or I pack my bags, call Governor Christie in Trenton, and have the state of New Jersey build me a ballpark next to Giants Stadium. One way or the other, I’d get a new ballpark.

8) Colleges should study pro wrestling’s marketing tactics; they put 78,363 people into Dolphins Stadium for Wrestlemania earlier this month; their pay-per-view was seen in 105 countries, broadcast in 20 ****uages. They’re very skilled at making money.

7) Was he kidding? Iowa football coach Kirk Ferentz claims not to know which division of the Big Dozen his Hawkeyes are in. Now, the pompous league office named the divisions Leaders and Legends, so that makes it easier to confuse, but you’d think he would know. They didn’t want to go with east/west because they’re not separating Ohio State/Michigan, but with San Diego State in the Big East, who cares about geographic accuracy?

6) My nomination for the worst quarter of NBA basketball in the last 20 years was the third quarter in Charlotte Monday, when New Orleans outscored the Bobcats 12-8.

I mean, if a high school game was 12-8 after an 8:00 quarter, you’d be yawning. This is highly-paid pros playing a 12:00 quarter. Yikes.

5) Jets are going to have separate offenses for Sanchez and Tebow? Yeah, that always works well.

4) One of Bob Huggins’ assistants got an NAIA head coaching job; his place on staff will likely be filled by former Duquesne coach Ron Everhart, who improved the Dukes but couldn’t get them over the hump in a tough league.

3) Its too bad if the BYU-Utah football rivalry goes away; Utes are in the Pac-12 now, and don’t need an additional non-league game that is highly emotional.

For some ridiculous reason, BYU has become an independent, so they really need the Utah game, it would be biggest game on their schedule most years.

2) BYU sees itself as Notre Dame, which is fine, but my question is, why would you want to be like Notre Dame? They’re an irrelevant program that rarely plays in big games, because the vast majority of big games are conference games. Kids want to play in big games, they want rivalries. My opinion is that being an independent has hurt Notre Dame’s recruiting, and no one wins without really good players.

1) Read recently where Vince Young sees himself as a starting QB. My question to him would be this: Would he rather live in Calgary, Edmonton or Regina? CFL is the only league where he’s still a starting quarterback.
 

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Thursday, April 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Milwaukee - 7:00 PM ET Indiana -5.5 500
Indiana - Over 205.5 500

Minnesota - 7:30 PM ET Detroit -5.5 500
Detroit - Under 197 500

Chicago - 8:00 PM ET Chicago +5 500
Miami - Under 183 500

Houston - 8:00 PM ET New Orleans +4.5 500
New Orleans - Over 187 500

L.A. Clippers - 10:30 PM ET Phoenix -2 500
Phoenix - Under 197.5 500
 

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