2012 MLB O/URecord: 38-34-2 (Originally started 2-7, 36-27-2 since then), -$134
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request), +$1,104
Another dominant day yesterday, as I went 3-1 and was up $72. That makes me 12-6 over the past three days, and +$301 over that stretch…. This is exactly what I expect to do on a daily basis. And if you take out my atrocious 2-7 start from the first few days of the season (In which I was rusty and still somewhat in a basketball mindset), that would make me 36-27-2 (57.1%), which is about my normal pace based on my success last year. I can’t stress it enough - if you continue to trust me, I will continue to reward you. While I do this stuffe very day, don’t ever think that I take a “night off” with less effort because when I do my routine, it is with 110% of my energy and mind literally every single night before I go to bed - a routine that lasts at least about a couple of hours, even if it leads me into four in the morning. Just continue to trust me. Now let’s see if we can keep this nice winning streak going…
Chicago Cubs @Miami Marlins (BestBet) - $71 for $68
Jeff Samardzija vs Ricky Nolasco
UNDER 7/7.5 (Most of my bet in for Under 7, line went up so I added more)
It just so happens that the first game on today’s slate is my best bet, which is always interesting, especially when it’s a 12:40 start time. The pitching matchup appears to be somewhat intriguing, as for one, it features Jeff Samardzija, who has quickly turned heads after shifting into a starting rolefor 2012. And you know what? He’s been doing it well and looks like he’ll enjoy a nice career as a mainstay in anybody’s rotation. Look at the numbers in his first start: 8.2 IP, 1 run, 4 hits, 0 walks, and 8 strikeouts. That performance came against the Nationals, which makes those numbers stick out even more,g iven Washington’s success here in the early going. Samardzija had a little setback in his last start versus St. Louis, but that was a weird game where the Cubs pounded Wainwright for a big lead early on, which probably effected Samardzija’s sense of urgency towards the middle innings. I believe the first start is more indicative of what we’ll see from the Notre Dame product moving forward.
His opponent, Ricky Nolasco, is one of the more mercurial pitchers in the league, in that there are days where he can be absolutely dominant, and there are days where he makes his opposing lineup look absolutely dominant. In other words,while Nolasco is universally thought of as a good, solid pitcher, if you lookat the numbers, he’s very inconsistent, with good months here and awful months there. His final numbers may usually end up fine, but I feel like it’s more ofa mixed bag from him. Luckily, I’ve somehow mastered Nolasco (Knock on wood),as I was 9-1 on his over/unders last year (He was one of my top three pitchers, along with Jeff Karstens, 10-0, and Anibal Sanchez, 9-0), and am out to a 2-0 start with him this year (Two over victories on him against Mat Latos and Lucas Harrell). So, the fact that I’m feeling under here when I seemingly more-so have an over vibe on a Ricky Nolasco start makes it that much more enticing.Hopefully I can keep up my dominance of Nolasco games and we’ll win this best bet. Under it is.
Cincinnati Reds@ St. Louis Cardinals - $58 for $50
Bronson Arroyo vs Adam Wainwright
OVER 7.5 (The line is actually 7 now but I put my whole bet in at 7.5)
First off, for those that might still doubt me, if I wasn’t one of the true honest guys who do this, wouldn’t I lie about my bet on this game and say that I actually put my whole bet in on Over 7? Well, fortunately, I’m not one of those scumbags who lie about their bets. The line was 7.5 (-115) last night when I put my whole bet in, as I felt it wouldn’t go down to 7, but it appears I was wrong and got the raw end of the deal. So, I’m stuck with 7.5 because I already have over $50 on it and don’t want to put more on it, but maybe we can still make the most of it.
This NL Central pitching matchup has quite the potential for runs to be scored inbunches, given the hurlers schedule to take the hill. Bronson Arroyo is ahomerun-allowing fiend, as it feels like he’s in the top five every year in homeruns surrendered. Based on his fine early season success, though, maybe that’s a trend that will change against us, as he’s somehow given up ZEROh omers over his first two starts, which came against solid offenses (Marlins and Nationals). At least we have the Law of Averages on our side, which indicates he’ll give up one or more today. Also working against us is the fact that Arroyo was just absolutely dealing in his last start, completely shutting down Washington over 7+ scoreless innings, while yielding only three hits. He’sgot a 2.63 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the season thus far, and I mention that because there is 100% no way that pace continues. If those numbers become inflate immediately, that should begin to happen today in this road start in St. Louis.
The biggest variable in this over/under bet, without question, is Adam Wainwright, who I consider to be one of the top five toughest pitchers to bet on in the early stages of this still-young season. Why? Well, look at his first two starts, and then compare that to his remarkable track record over the past few years - it’s pretty much night and day, and as a bettor, it’s worrisome because at this point in time, you don’t know what kind of pitcher Adam Wainwright is anymore. From 2007-2010, this guy was one of the most consistent pitchers inall of baseball. He was tremendous just about every five days. All of a sudden, ever since his unfortunate Tommy John surgery (I hate to see great pitchers ruined by this. I really do), it looks like Wainwright might be a completely different pitcher now, especially after getting shelled in his last start by a very unspectacular Cubs offense, which is a lineup that he has owned all throughout his career. Is this the new Adam Wainwright, or is he simply still trying to settle in and revert to old form? That’s a question no one in the country can answer except him. However, I had a solid vibe on the over of this game, and if you coincide that with my opinion that Wainwright is not the same pitcher anymore from watching him this year, well, it adds up to an over. The Reds offense is due, too.
Other 4/19Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Josh Tomlin vs Felix Hernandez UNDER 7
Jeremy Hellickson vs Henderson Alvarez UNDER 9
Vance Worley vs Joe Wieland OVER 6.5 (Seriously, WHY is Las Vegas obsessed with Joe Wieland? What’s with the bizarrely low lines on his games??)
Bud Norris vs Edwin Jackson OVER 7 (I very, very rarely get an over vibe on a Bud Norris game so it must’ve meant something, as I love Bud)
**MayAdd More Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Rest Of Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later As Well**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request), +$1,104
Another dominant day yesterday, as I went 3-1 and was up $72. That makes me 12-6 over the past three days, and +$301 over that stretch…. This is exactly what I expect to do on a daily basis. And if you take out my atrocious 2-7 start from the first few days of the season (In which I was rusty and still somewhat in a basketball mindset), that would make me 36-27-2 (57.1%), which is about my normal pace based on my success last year. I can’t stress it enough - if you continue to trust me, I will continue to reward you. While I do this stuffe very day, don’t ever think that I take a “night off” with less effort because when I do my routine, it is with 110% of my energy and mind literally every single night before I go to bed - a routine that lasts at least about a couple of hours, even if it leads me into four in the morning. Just continue to trust me. Now let’s see if we can keep this nice winning streak going…
Chicago Cubs @Miami Marlins (BestBet) - $71 for $68
Jeff Samardzija vs Ricky Nolasco
UNDER 7/7.5 (Most of my bet in for Under 7, line went up so I added more)
It just so happens that the first game on today’s slate is my best bet, which is always interesting, especially when it’s a 12:40 start time. The pitching matchup appears to be somewhat intriguing, as for one, it features Jeff Samardzija, who has quickly turned heads after shifting into a starting rolefor 2012. And you know what? He’s been doing it well and looks like he’ll enjoy a nice career as a mainstay in anybody’s rotation. Look at the numbers in his first start: 8.2 IP, 1 run, 4 hits, 0 walks, and 8 strikeouts. That performance came against the Nationals, which makes those numbers stick out even more,g iven Washington’s success here in the early going. Samardzija had a little setback in his last start versus St. Louis, but that was a weird game where the Cubs pounded Wainwright for a big lead early on, which probably effected Samardzija’s sense of urgency towards the middle innings. I believe the first start is more indicative of what we’ll see from the Notre Dame product moving forward.
His opponent, Ricky Nolasco, is one of the more mercurial pitchers in the league, in that there are days where he can be absolutely dominant, and there are days where he makes his opposing lineup look absolutely dominant. In other words,while Nolasco is universally thought of as a good, solid pitcher, if you lookat the numbers, he’s very inconsistent, with good months here and awful months there. His final numbers may usually end up fine, but I feel like it’s more ofa mixed bag from him. Luckily, I’ve somehow mastered Nolasco (Knock on wood),as I was 9-1 on his over/unders last year (He was one of my top three pitchers, along with Jeff Karstens, 10-0, and Anibal Sanchez, 9-0), and am out to a 2-0 start with him this year (Two over victories on him against Mat Latos and Lucas Harrell). So, the fact that I’m feeling under here when I seemingly more-so have an over vibe on a Ricky Nolasco start makes it that much more enticing.Hopefully I can keep up my dominance of Nolasco games and we’ll win this best bet. Under it is.
Cincinnati Reds@ St. Louis Cardinals - $58 for $50
Bronson Arroyo vs Adam Wainwright
OVER 7.5 (The line is actually 7 now but I put my whole bet in at 7.5)
First off, for those that might still doubt me, if I wasn’t one of the true honest guys who do this, wouldn’t I lie about my bet on this game and say that I actually put my whole bet in on Over 7? Well, fortunately, I’m not one of those scumbags who lie about their bets. The line was 7.5 (-115) last night when I put my whole bet in, as I felt it wouldn’t go down to 7, but it appears I was wrong and got the raw end of the deal. So, I’m stuck with 7.5 because I already have over $50 on it and don’t want to put more on it, but maybe we can still make the most of it.
This NL Central pitching matchup has quite the potential for runs to be scored inbunches, given the hurlers schedule to take the hill. Bronson Arroyo is ahomerun-allowing fiend, as it feels like he’s in the top five every year in homeruns surrendered. Based on his fine early season success, though, maybe that’s a trend that will change against us, as he’s somehow given up ZEROh omers over his first two starts, which came against solid offenses (Marlins and Nationals). At least we have the Law of Averages on our side, which indicates he’ll give up one or more today. Also working against us is the fact that Arroyo was just absolutely dealing in his last start, completely shutting down Washington over 7+ scoreless innings, while yielding only three hits. He’sgot a 2.63 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the season thus far, and I mention that because there is 100% no way that pace continues. If those numbers become inflate immediately, that should begin to happen today in this road start in St. Louis.
The biggest variable in this over/under bet, without question, is Adam Wainwright, who I consider to be one of the top five toughest pitchers to bet on in the early stages of this still-young season. Why? Well, look at his first two starts, and then compare that to his remarkable track record over the past few years - it’s pretty much night and day, and as a bettor, it’s worrisome because at this point in time, you don’t know what kind of pitcher Adam Wainwright is anymore. From 2007-2010, this guy was one of the most consistent pitchers inall of baseball. He was tremendous just about every five days. All of a sudden, ever since his unfortunate Tommy John surgery (I hate to see great pitchers ruined by this. I really do), it looks like Wainwright might be a completely different pitcher now, especially after getting shelled in his last start by a very unspectacular Cubs offense, which is a lineup that he has owned all throughout his career. Is this the new Adam Wainwright, or is he simply still trying to settle in and revert to old form? That’s a question no one in the country can answer except him. However, I had a solid vibe on the over of this game, and if you coincide that with my opinion that Wainwright is not the same pitcher anymore from watching him this year, well, it adds up to an over. The Reds offense is due, too.
Other 4/19Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Josh Tomlin vs Felix Hernandez UNDER 7
Jeremy Hellickson vs Henderson Alvarez UNDER 9
Vance Worley vs Joe Wieland OVER 6.5 (Seriously, WHY is Las Vegas obsessed with Joe Wieland? What’s with the bizarrely low lines on his games??)
Bud Norris vs Edwin Jackson OVER 7 (I very, very rarely get an over vibe on a Bud Norris game so it must’ve meant something, as I love Bud)
**MayAdd More Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Rest Of Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later As Well**
