The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - April 20, 2012 - YTD: 41-37-2 (Originally started 2-7 because of rust, I am 39-30-2 since. BIGGEST

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 41-37-2,-$139 (Originally started 2-7 because of rust, 39-30-2 since then)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42,+$1,104 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)


Happy 4/20 for those that partake in that wonderful activity, which is almost as wonderful as doing MLB Over/Under betting. 3-3 day yesterday and ended up about even (Down a grand total of $5 to be exact. Won two of my three top bets, at least), with my best bet Samardzija vs Nolasco under losing by a half run when the line should have been 8 from the beginning. Forced it a bit, and that’s what’ll happen sometimes. In any case, I feel VERY, VERY, VERY good about today’s slate. Very good. Considering that’s the first time I’ve used that expression, I’d say my extensive hot run will continue and it’d be a great time to tail me if you’re a new reader to this thread. In addition, I have a new biggest bet of the season (Which is very rare when I go this high) that I know will end up differently than my previous biggest bet of the year from Sunday (Matusz vs Drabek under 9.5, which was solely ruined by Kevin Gregg when it was 2-1 in the bottom of the 6th). Anyway, here’s the reason you’re all reading…


**Dollar Amounts For Each Game To Be Posted Later Before Gametime**


Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays (Best Bet… of the season)
Liam Hendriks vs Matt Moore
UNDER 8

Oh man, oh man, oh man do I love this game. As soon as I saw this beeeautiful pitching matchup, my eyes lit up and my mind was infatuated with excitement. This game right here is a potential goldmine, although I am sad to report that the line changed overnight to 7.5 (Which is why you all need to check the lines every night for the next day’s games), but luckily, I realized the line would probably change so I put it in for about $230 - my biggest over/under bet of all-time. For you to comprehend the significance of this, my highest over/underbet all of last year was $165 for $150 (In that delightful Cahill/Romero April 7th under that I still distinctly remember). On the contrary, my Matusz vs Drabek under from Sunday was also for about $200, and we came out on the bad end of that one, although that was simply because of a bullpen implosion fluke. How often does a team score 7 runs in an inning in the 6th or later? The only way we’re losing this one will also be because of some bizarre fluke occurrence, meaning our chances are incredibly good.

Ah, Liam Hendriks. To almost everyone, he’s just another obscure pitcher with a pretty cool name. But, when you do this stuff every day as I do, you notice all the weird characters that take the hill throughout a given season. Hendriks is someone who caught my eye significantly as soon as he popped on the scene towards the end of last year - so much so that I labeled him as one of my top five personal sleepers coming into the season. It was nice to see him begin to fulfill my potential for him as he actually contained the RANGERS offense (You know, the best lineup in baseball) to the tune of seven hits, one run (A homer), NO walks, and four strikeouts over six solid innings, en route to an under against Neftali Feliz. Furthermore, that was his first and only start ofthe year, as he missed his first scheduled start due to a late case of food poisoning the night before. Apparently, he has rebounded from that and is back on track to become the upper-rotation pitcher that I know he’s capable of being.

Ah, Matt Moore; Another pitcher that I think about it and only have great, great thoughts on. If there’s one pitcher that was a can’t-miss prospect coming intothe 2012 campaign, it was this guy right here, and with plenty of reasons. For one, his second career start came in the PLAYOFFS, in which he absolutely shutd own the Rangers (Hmm, irony that both of these pitchers somewhat owned Texas?), and made it crystal clear that he’s going to make a huge impact in the bigs. Yes, if you look at his current numbers, they’re not pretty (5.54 ERA,1.62 WHIP, 9 walks, 3 homers allowed in two starts), but if you look at the assignments he's had - pitching at Detroit, which he did well (6.2 innings, 4hits, 2 runs) and at Boston - then you can understand why. Even Jesus would potentially have a tough time pitching at Fenway Park, so I hold none of that against Moore. If anything, you can apply the underrated Law of Averages (Moore is obviously not going to continue pace with those numbers), and it’s a great opportunity to improve upon those stats against a Minnesota offense that, despite its outburst in New York, really isn’t that great. If your sportsbook still has the line for this game at 8, I’m telling you… LOCK UP UNDER 8.


Colorado Rockies@ Milwaukee Brewers
Jhoulys Chacin vs Shaun Marcum
OVER 8

I look at this pitching matchup and I don’t understand why the line is as low as it is. I mean, I always look at the actual pitching matchups BEFORE looking atthe actual lines, but I had a relatively strong over vibe for this one, and didn’t think the over/under would be as low as 8 (It opened up last night at 8.5, didn’t think it would drop). In any case, we have perhaps a golden opportunity to capitalize on a Vegas mistake. Jhoulys Chacin is not particularly a guy that I know well (Only took three of his games last year, in which I was 1-2), but he just hasn’t been good this year, and I think that’s a trend that will continue for most of the season. It’s true he had very nice 2010 and 2011 seasons, but from the few times I’ve watched him in action, I’m just not impressed. For a pitcher with his recent track record, he pitches himself into relatively more trouble than most, as clued in by his 1.32 WHIP last year, and it’s finally starting to catch up to him apparently. He’ll be pitching on MLB Network tonight in portions of the country so I expect him to continue to struggle a bit against a still-tough Brewer lineup on the road.

Then there is Shaun Marcum, absolutely one of the better and most consistent regular season pitchers out there. Playoffs? Not even close. I mention that because his woes in the postseason could be related to some sort of mental issues (Uncomfortable pitching in front of big television audiences?), which could re-occur right here on the aforementioned MLB Network. On the contrary, it is hard to ignore Marcum’s last start (7 innings, 3 hits, 2 runs, 6 strikeouts atA tlanta), but then again, he’s had plenty of terrific starts like that. I’m thinking we see more of the playoff version of Marcum tonight, thus meaning he’ll contribute to an over. We should be able to at least scratch out a push on a Friday night with these two live offenses.


Other 4/20 Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Homer Bailey vs Chris Volstad UNDER 7 (Wrigley Field games always very tricky)
Chris Sale vs Hector Noesi UNDER 7 (I’m buying into the Chris Sale hype. Very efficient pitcher)
Ivan Nova vs Clay Buchholz OVER 10 (Must warn you I was 13-13-1 on Yankee O/U’s last year & 10-15-3 on Boston O/U’s in 2011)
Lance Lynn vs Charlie Morton OVER 8 (2-0 on Lance Lynn games this year so far. Have a good feel for him)


**WillA dd More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
 

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Yes, me partakes.
 
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Lol I was still debating it when I made that last post. Now it's official: Only $24 for $20 on Nova vs Buchholz over 10
 
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Woah, unusual 0-2 start to my day, although if you had the over on Nova vs Buchholz, I don't care what the end result was, you were 100% right. But sometimes, even when you're 100% right on a game, you're not rewarded with the win. There were SIX homeruns in that game, and I wish there was a stat to tell us if that was the first time in recent memory where a game featured that many longballs and still couldn't even go over nine or ten. Luckily they were small bets.

Now considering, I've only had one day with a losing record since April 11 (On this past Sunday, when I went 4-5), you'd be very wise to tail all of my night games, especially my best bet. Here's the dollar amounts for most of my night games...

Liam Hendriks vs Matt Moore UNDER 8 - $232 for $185 (My biggest MLB Over/Under bet of all-time)
Jhoulys Chacin vs Shaun Marcum OVER 8 - $50 for $50
Chris Sale vs Hector Noesi UNDER 7 - $33 for $25
Lance Lynn vs Charlie Morton OVER 8 - $22 for $20

Also going to ADD:

Brian Matusz vs Jerome Williams OVER (Line is currently at 9.5, waiting to see if it drops back to 9, which is where it was last night. Should have took it at that when I had the chance! I'll post my final amount on this game later)
 

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Let's get this UNDER in Tropicana!!!

I really like the White Sox UNDER 7 play..........

Let me know how much you're putting on O's/Angels OVER. And IF it was at 9, how much would u risk/win? Thanks Cat.
 

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Damn Willingham! It always seems to happen this way lately.........either no runs in the 1st 5 innings scored.............then a shitload of runs scored from 6-9 innings. I can't seem to catch a break on any of these....
 
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Unreal. Bullpen blows it again. I am beyond pissed. It was 1-0 in the 5th! Of course, much like that Matusz vs Drabek game on Sunday, it was also 2-1 in the 6th before the wheels started coming off in the bottom of the 6th. There was some REAL bad fielding also, as all of Hendriks' runs were originally ruled unearned because the ball Casilla misplayed, and then for some reason, they changed the ruling and didn't call it an error. They also misplayed the Desmond Jennings bunt because Casilla didn't cover second in time; Jennings would've been done. It's ridiculous, you make the calls on these games and you're right, then stuff you can't control like fielding and bullpen work messes it all up.

By the way, putting only $23 for $20 on Matusz vs Williams over 9.5 - so discouraged from this game for the rest of the night.

Also ADDING Cole Hamels vs Edinson Volquez under 6 for the minimum, $13 for 10
 

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Didn't play it but after your write on TB.....was thinking Under 1st 5.
May try both next time.

GL
 

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