Giants at Mets, Sat 4-21, Vogelsong v. Pelfrey. Line: Giants -105/Mets -105
The opening line for this game is a pickem and I see a good amount of value on the Mets, mostly because of the pitching match up. Vogelsong is a very interesting pitcher. He pitched in the majors to start his career and then played a few years in Japan before coming back. He had a really good season in 2011 and expectations for him are high.....BUT he is 34 years old and this spring was complaining about back trouble. He pitched decent in his one start this season but it was against the Pirates who simply can't hit. Also, after the start he was complaining that he didn't feel right. I pulled a random game from his 2011 season and saw his fastball was averaging 92.05 and topped out at 93.6. In his start against the Pirates this year his fastball averaged 88.85 and topped out at 90.7. I know it takes a while for pitchers to ramp up their velocity once a season starts but his numbers are too off and coupled with his age and back issues it should be a major red flag. Bettors will see the name Vogelsong, remember he was an all-star, and will take their cash to the window to back him. This perception allows the number to be where it is, which is good for us.
Part of the reason for this price is also Mike Pelfrey's inconistency and general inability to be an effective pitcher. Even though most don't think highly of him he has been decent so far this year. His era was ridiculously high this spring and Terry Collins called him into his office and told him the front office was upset and wanted answers. They wanted to know why he was performing so poorly. Collins told him "this front office isn't like the last one you had". Meaning Sandy Alderson's administration holds players more accountable for their performance than Omar Minaya's did. Pelfrey said it was due to a minor injury that has now healed and since then he has looked good. He also said he made some minor mechanical changes that are now paying off. He has pitched well so far and had a solid game against the Phillies his last time out. It is so hard to predict which Mike Pelfrey will show up on the mound on a start to start basis but I believe for the reasons stated above that there is value to be had on him at this point in the season.
I think the price on this game should be closer to Mets -125 mainly because of the Vogelsong/Pelfrey angle. I just don't see how the Giants lineup is better than the Mets when Nieuwehhuis and Wright are on such a tear. The thing that makes me the most nervous whenever I back the Mets is their defense. Just from watching them you can tell they are not a good defensive team. This pretty much all because of right side and more specifically Daniel Murphy at 2b and Lucas Duda in rf. Murphy is probably the worst fielding 2b in the majors and can't be counted on to turn double plays. He is so bad at turning them that he has to play closer to 2b which in turn allows more balls to go through the infield. I checked the numbers to see if they confirmed what my eyes were seeing and sure enough the Mets are the 3rd worst team in baseball in park adjusted defensive efficiency (PADE). The Mets defense notwithstanding I do believe they are a value play at pickem in this spot.
The pick: Mets -105
The opening line for this game is a pickem and I see a good amount of value on the Mets, mostly because of the pitching match up. Vogelsong is a very interesting pitcher. He pitched in the majors to start his career and then played a few years in Japan before coming back. He had a really good season in 2011 and expectations for him are high.....BUT he is 34 years old and this spring was complaining about back trouble. He pitched decent in his one start this season but it was against the Pirates who simply can't hit. Also, after the start he was complaining that he didn't feel right. I pulled a random game from his 2011 season and saw his fastball was averaging 92.05 and topped out at 93.6. In his start against the Pirates this year his fastball averaged 88.85 and topped out at 90.7. I know it takes a while for pitchers to ramp up their velocity once a season starts but his numbers are too off and coupled with his age and back issues it should be a major red flag. Bettors will see the name Vogelsong, remember he was an all-star, and will take their cash to the window to back him. This perception allows the number to be where it is, which is good for us.
Part of the reason for this price is also Mike Pelfrey's inconistency and general inability to be an effective pitcher. Even though most don't think highly of him he has been decent so far this year. His era was ridiculously high this spring and Terry Collins called him into his office and told him the front office was upset and wanted answers. They wanted to know why he was performing so poorly. Collins told him "this front office isn't like the last one you had". Meaning Sandy Alderson's administration holds players more accountable for their performance than Omar Minaya's did. Pelfrey said it was due to a minor injury that has now healed and since then he has looked good. He also said he made some minor mechanical changes that are now paying off. He has pitched well so far and had a solid game against the Phillies his last time out. It is so hard to predict which Mike Pelfrey will show up on the mound on a start to start basis but I believe for the reasons stated above that there is value to be had on him at this point in the season.
I think the price on this game should be closer to Mets -125 mainly because of the Vogelsong/Pelfrey angle. I just don't see how the Giants lineup is better than the Mets when Nieuwehhuis and Wright are on such a tear. The thing that makes me the most nervous whenever I back the Mets is their defense. Just from watching them you can tell they are not a good defensive team. This pretty much all because of right side and more specifically Daniel Murphy at 2b and Lucas Duda in rf. Murphy is probably the worst fielding 2b in the majors and can't be counted on to turn double plays. He is so bad at turning them that he has to play closer to 2b which in turn allows more balls to go through the infield. I checked the numbers to see if they confirmed what my eyes were seeing and sure enough the Mets are the 3rd worst team in baseball in park adjusted defensive efficiency (PADE). The Mets defense notwithstanding I do believe they are a value play at pickem in this spot.
The pick: Mets -105
hno:
