2012 MLB O/U Record: 42-44-2, -$548 (Originally started 2-7 because of rust. This is still unacceptable and will be turned around very soon)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42,+$1,104 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)
Wow, very humbling 1-7 day yesterday, a historically bad performance for me personally that I’ve never had, although that was probably the most misleading 1-7 day you will EVER see. Let’s review: First of all, my best bet Hendriks vs Moore under 8 was well on target, as both pitchers were cruising. It was 1-0 in the fifth and 2-1 in the 6th before the wheels started coming off in the bottom of the 6th because of two consecutive bad defensive plays byAlexei Casilla to lead off the inning - that always gets in a young pitcher’s head, especially at that point in the game when you’re trying to cling to a small lead in a pitcher’s duel (Which it was up to that point). Even with that,we still could’ve wrapped up a win, but ultimately, the Rays bullpen blew the 4-2 lead, and viola, we lost the bet by one run.
In addition, how did the Nova vs Buchholz over 10 lose? Is that the first game in recent memory where a game had SIX homeruns and didn’t go over 9 or 10? I wish I could find a stat to verify that. And how many balls were hit hard to the outfield and/or to the warning track? If you had the under, you may have won, but you were clearly wrong. How about Chacin vs Marcum over 8? Multiple runners thrown out at homeplate, including after one of the most fluke defensive plays on that Aramis Ramirez diving stop (How old is he now? 39?) at third base; also had a chance to win it in the 9th but Milwaukee stranded the runner at third. Bet loses by a run. In Matusz vs Williams over 9.5, I believe there was a small village left on the basepaths (If I could quote Major League 2), and of course, we lost the bet by a half run - which was the exact reason I waited all day for the line to drop to 9 (Which it should have been all along), but it never did. So see, you have to take morale victories despite your overall record and realize that the end result may have been bad, but it was mostly because of an unusual number of bad breaks. Thus, I am not letting this personal record bad performance affect me going forward - you just have to try and put it behind you and move on to the next day...
**Dollar Amounts to be Posted Later On Right Before Gametime**
Chicago WhiteSox @ Seattle Mariners (Best Bet)
Philip Humber vs Blake Beaven
UNDER 7.5
This line is very fishy. Most games in an extreme pitcher’s park like Seattle with good-to-great pitchers going will always feature a line of 6, 6.5, or 7,especially with two lower-ranked teams offensively. But 7.5? I wasn’t expecting this AT ALL. I mean, just look at who’s taking the hill today. For Chicago, it’sP hilip Humber, who, even at this stage in his Major League career, is proving to be a model of consistency, as in his first full season in the bigs as a starter last year, he had a run of 12 straight quality starts at one point, en route to finishing up at 9-9 with a 3.75 ERA and even more impressive 1.18WHIP. Apparently, that was no fluke, as he started out his 2012 campaign with a solid start against Baltimore five days ago, tossing five-plus strong, striking out seven, and only giving up one run. He’s definitely here to stay as a mainstay in the White Sox rotation.
Opposite him will be my No. 1 sleeper in all of Major League Baseball coming into the2012 season, that being Blake Beaven. I can’t say enough about this guy - he’s the real deal. Being a Texas fan, I followed him for years before he finally came up with Seattle, and he’s living up to the high expectations that I have for him in my own mind. Like Humber, he’s also out to a great start after a successful 2011 (He had a really bad final start to end last year, whichbrought up his final ERA almost half a run - to a deceiving 4.27), as he’s 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA and a WHIP of less than 1! His one loss, by the way, came inTexas in a rare 1-0 defeat, at the hands of Neftali Feliz, so certainly Beaven could have easily been 2-0 right now. He won his last start and looks to already be in midseason form - trust me, I know Beaven as well as anybody as he’s got a looong bright career ahead of him as an upper-rotation pitcher. This should be a nice pitching matchup, although the one factor I am worried about is that this game is airing on FOX in portions of the country. Unfortunately, there’s really no sample size to determine how they react to being pit in nationally televised games, but if they just pitch how they normally pitch, this will be an under.
Colorado Rockies@ Milwaukee Brewers
Drew Pomeranz vs Marco Estrada
OVER 9
Yes, I am attacking the Rockies/Brewers series for a second straight night, as I was just one run off on the over last night. However, in this certain matchup, how is the over not attainable? You have two very live offenses going against two inexperienced pitchers, one of which apparently is making a spot start as a temporary swingman in the Milwaukee rotation. That would be Marco Estrada, who made a few random starts last year (7, to be exact, with about half of those being quality starts), and considering he’s been pitching out of the bullpen, it’s hard to project how he’ll suddenly shift back into a starter’s role for tonight’s game - but he has done it well a few times before, as he showed last year. Against the Rockies, though, I don’t think he’ll have as much success because he's not an overpowering pitcher at all, which is the kind of guy Colorado's lineup can take advantage of. Estrada pitches to contact, but with several dangerous hitters in the order, you don't really want them making much contact, that's for sure.
Drew Pomeranz is probably the main reason to like this over, as while he showed flashes of being a fine Major League starter in 2011, he’s out to a horrid start in ’12 after his season debut went awry against Arizona, giving up nine hits and walking two in under five innings of work. Is that the Drew Pomeranz we can expect to see much of throughout the season? Well, if he sticks in the rotation, I’m sure he’ll be improved later on, but at this point in the year, I think his struggles will spill into his next start a bit, if not more,especially going up against a fearsome Milwaukee lineup on the road. The line of 9 might be a bargain so look for it to go over in this Saturday night atmosphere.
Other 4/21 Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Neftali Feliz vs Justin Verlander UNDER 7
Clayton Kershaw vs Kyle Weiland UNDER 7
Freddy Garcia vs Felix Doubront OVER 11
Anibal Sanchez vs Stephen Strasberg UNDER 6.5
Mike Leake vs Paul Maholm UNDER 7.5 (Had a vibe and there has be a reason why Vegasset the line so low, besides the legendary Wrigley Field winds)
**May Add More Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42,+$1,104 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)
Wow, very humbling 1-7 day yesterday, a historically bad performance for me personally that I’ve never had, although that was probably the most misleading 1-7 day you will EVER see. Let’s review: First of all, my best bet Hendriks vs Moore under 8 was well on target, as both pitchers were cruising. It was 1-0 in the fifth and 2-1 in the 6th before the wheels started coming off in the bottom of the 6th because of two consecutive bad defensive plays byAlexei Casilla to lead off the inning - that always gets in a young pitcher’s head, especially at that point in the game when you’re trying to cling to a small lead in a pitcher’s duel (Which it was up to that point). Even with that,we still could’ve wrapped up a win, but ultimately, the Rays bullpen blew the 4-2 lead, and viola, we lost the bet by one run.
In addition, how did the Nova vs Buchholz over 10 lose? Is that the first game in recent memory where a game had SIX homeruns and didn’t go over 9 or 10? I wish I could find a stat to verify that. And how many balls were hit hard to the outfield and/or to the warning track? If you had the under, you may have won, but you were clearly wrong. How about Chacin vs Marcum over 8? Multiple runners thrown out at homeplate, including after one of the most fluke defensive plays on that Aramis Ramirez diving stop (How old is he now? 39?) at third base; also had a chance to win it in the 9th but Milwaukee stranded the runner at third. Bet loses by a run. In Matusz vs Williams over 9.5, I believe there was a small village left on the basepaths (If I could quote Major League 2), and of course, we lost the bet by a half run - which was the exact reason I waited all day for the line to drop to 9 (Which it should have been all along), but it never did. So see, you have to take morale victories despite your overall record and realize that the end result may have been bad, but it was mostly because of an unusual number of bad breaks. Thus, I am not letting this personal record bad performance affect me going forward - you just have to try and put it behind you and move on to the next day...
**Dollar Amounts to be Posted Later On Right Before Gametime**
Chicago WhiteSox @ Seattle Mariners (Best Bet)
Philip Humber vs Blake Beaven
UNDER 7.5
This line is very fishy. Most games in an extreme pitcher’s park like Seattle with good-to-great pitchers going will always feature a line of 6, 6.5, or 7,especially with two lower-ranked teams offensively. But 7.5? I wasn’t expecting this AT ALL. I mean, just look at who’s taking the hill today. For Chicago, it’sP hilip Humber, who, even at this stage in his Major League career, is proving to be a model of consistency, as in his first full season in the bigs as a starter last year, he had a run of 12 straight quality starts at one point, en route to finishing up at 9-9 with a 3.75 ERA and even more impressive 1.18WHIP. Apparently, that was no fluke, as he started out his 2012 campaign with a solid start against Baltimore five days ago, tossing five-plus strong, striking out seven, and only giving up one run. He’s definitely here to stay as a mainstay in the White Sox rotation.
Opposite him will be my No. 1 sleeper in all of Major League Baseball coming into the2012 season, that being Blake Beaven. I can’t say enough about this guy - he’s the real deal. Being a Texas fan, I followed him for years before he finally came up with Seattle, and he’s living up to the high expectations that I have for him in my own mind. Like Humber, he’s also out to a great start after a successful 2011 (He had a really bad final start to end last year, whichbrought up his final ERA almost half a run - to a deceiving 4.27), as he’s 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA and a WHIP of less than 1! His one loss, by the way, came inTexas in a rare 1-0 defeat, at the hands of Neftali Feliz, so certainly Beaven could have easily been 2-0 right now. He won his last start and looks to already be in midseason form - trust me, I know Beaven as well as anybody as he’s got a looong bright career ahead of him as an upper-rotation pitcher. This should be a nice pitching matchup, although the one factor I am worried about is that this game is airing on FOX in portions of the country. Unfortunately, there’s really no sample size to determine how they react to being pit in nationally televised games, but if they just pitch how they normally pitch, this will be an under.
Colorado Rockies@ Milwaukee Brewers
Drew Pomeranz vs Marco Estrada
OVER 9
Yes, I am attacking the Rockies/Brewers series for a second straight night, as I was just one run off on the over last night. However, in this certain matchup, how is the over not attainable? You have two very live offenses going against two inexperienced pitchers, one of which apparently is making a spot start as a temporary swingman in the Milwaukee rotation. That would be Marco Estrada, who made a few random starts last year (7, to be exact, with about half of those being quality starts), and considering he’s been pitching out of the bullpen, it’s hard to project how he’ll suddenly shift back into a starter’s role for tonight’s game - but he has done it well a few times before, as he showed last year. Against the Rockies, though, I don’t think he’ll have as much success because he's not an overpowering pitcher at all, which is the kind of guy Colorado's lineup can take advantage of. Estrada pitches to contact, but with several dangerous hitters in the order, you don't really want them making much contact, that's for sure.
Drew Pomeranz is probably the main reason to like this over, as while he showed flashes of being a fine Major League starter in 2011, he’s out to a horrid start in ’12 after his season debut went awry against Arizona, giving up nine hits and walking two in under five innings of work. Is that the Drew Pomeranz we can expect to see much of throughout the season? Well, if he sticks in the rotation, I’m sure he’ll be improved later on, but at this point in the year, I think his struggles will spill into his next start a bit, if not more,especially going up against a fearsome Milwaukee lineup on the road. The line of 9 might be a bargain so look for it to go over in this Saturday night atmosphere.
Other 4/21 Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Neftali Feliz vs Justin Verlander UNDER 7
Clayton Kershaw vs Kyle Weiland UNDER 7
Freddy Garcia vs Felix Doubront OVER 11
Anibal Sanchez vs Stephen Strasberg UNDER 6.5
Mike Leake vs Paul Maholm UNDER 7.5 (Had a vibe and there has be a reason why Vegasset the line so low, besides the legendary Wrigley Field winds)
**May Add More Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
