2012 MLB O/U Record: 51-45-2, -$290 (Originally started 2-7 because of rust)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)
Acceptable 1-1 day yesterday, as Sundays are usually a “lay low” kind of day where I can seemingly catch a breather and get that much more hungrier for Monday, which is usually my best day actually. It was especially true in this scenario, as when you’re coming off a PERFECT 8-0 day, as I did on Saturday, well, it’s actually tough to focus on the next day. I mean, you can’t do any better than that. So, here we are, my favorite day of the week for over/unders (The stats prove it; 68-35-6 last year on Monday over/unders), and I’ve got some solid ones that we’ll hopefully cash in for a profit. Let’s hope I keep up my Monday dominance…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers (BestBet)
Jair Jurrjens vs Chris Capuano
UNDER 7.5
This game caught my eye right away for a variety of reasons. One, my biggest vibe for today was attached to this specific over/under, and that’s just very interesting to me because: A)No Jair Jurrjens over/under has stuck out to me AT ALL this year, and B)I never really get a strong vibe on a Chris Capuano game.Therefore, there’s something significant here. I mean, my stats with both pitchers weren’t special in 2011 (5-4-2 on Jurrjens last year, while I was 5-4on Capuano), but this is a game I’m going to attack, also because of the evidence supporting it.
Right now, Jurrjens’ numbers for the season look horrid (0-1, 8.10 ERA, 2.25 WHIP), but obviously he’s not that bad. Not even close. There’s a reason Jurrjens has looked masterful almost throughout his entire 2008-2011 tenure with Atlanta, thus meaning I expect his numbers to start somewhat returning normal, although there’s no way I think he’ll ultimately come close to duplicating his remarkable statline from last year (13-6, 2.96 ERA). Even so, Jurrjens is one of those guys who gets by with finesse, rather than strikeouts, and with that comes being a smart pitcher, thus meaning he should be able to figure out his early-season struggles. Vegas apparently thinks so also, otherwise they would have given under bettors the extra half-run and made it 8, rather than making under 7.5 at -120, with the potential for it to drop as low as 7. I’m counting on Jurrjens to have a bounce-back performance here; think of it this way, he won’t be as bad or worse as he’s been so far this year.
I don’t recall ever having such a strong under vibe on a Capuano start, but it happened, and probably with good reason. Ever since a disappointing 2012 debut in San Diego, Capuano has produced consecutive quality starts, a streak that I believe he can continue here tonight at home. Even more impressive is that in his last start, he kept Brewer hitters at bay, limiting them to six hits and two runs over six innings, in his former stomping grounds of Milwaukee. While his ERA currently sits at 4.50, I think Capuano will ultimately end up around that exact number when all is said and done - most likely lower. Therefore,with the Dodgers inevitably (In my opinion, they are legit. The end of 2011 showed it, too) staying at the top of the NL West, they’re going to need other pitchers to step up besides Clayton Kershaw and maintain that, and I really believe Capuano will be one of them. He always had the talent early on his career with the Brew Crew, and while his year with the Mets last year had its ups anddowns, I feel this could be the year he has put it all together again. Perhaps most importantly, Capuano had his best start last season, if not of his entire career, against the Braves, hurling a beautiful two-hit, 13-strikeout shutout. Hopefully he gives us at least partially of that success tonight and keeps his quality start streak going.
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets
Tim Lincecum vs Miguel Batista
UNDER [Waiting for Line to Go Up to 8; Will Still Take It At 7.5]
Before I get started, let me warn you that Lincecum is not one of my better pitchers, asI was a measly 2-4-1 on his over/unders last year. The fact that I only took seven of his games in an entire season should be all you need to know about my mentality with him, in that I don’t really have a good beat on the former Cy Young. But, in this case, similar to the one I had with Jurrjens, there’s just no way Lincecum is going to keep up at his horrendous pace. 10.54 ERA? 1.90 WHIP? I guess that’s our theme of the day, banking on former great pitchers to bounce back all in one evening. But unlike Jurrjens, Lincecum has literally been on top of the league in the past, so there has to be some sort of point where he just begins to turn it around. Why not against the sometimes-offensively-challenged Mets? He has seven career starts against them, in which he recorded a delightful 2.87 ERA and 51 strikeouts in 47 innings. Furthermore, he stifled them last year in two starts (13 IP, 1 run, 9 hits, 18Ks), which should indicate that he begins to turn it around here.
Then there’s Miguel Batista, who is probably just some no-name veteran journeyman scrub to most of you. Well, if you were paying attention in 2011, Batista was actually having sort of a renaissance year towards the end of last season, when the Mets allowed him to make four starts, three of which were quality ones! In that small sample, he also completely dominated a solid Reds offense, in tossing a complete game, two-hit shutout, while only walking two and striking out five, in his final start of the year. So, as you see, Batista may still have it, as he certainly was showing it towards the end of '11. The only problem - that was last year. And, another problem - this is just his first start of the season, as he’s been pitching out of the bullpen, which always has the potential to be a huge variable from a mental perspective. Well, the main reason to make this bet is because of Lincecum, so all we need is a fine start from Mr. Batista and we should be good.
Other 4/23 Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Lucas Harrell vs Zack Greinke OVER 7
Kyle Kendrick vs Wade Miley OVER 9
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)
Acceptable 1-1 day yesterday, as Sundays are usually a “lay low” kind of day where I can seemingly catch a breather and get that much more hungrier for Monday, which is usually my best day actually. It was especially true in this scenario, as when you’re coming off a PERFECT 8-0 day, as I did on Saturday, well, it’s actually tough to focus on the next day. I mean, you can’t do any better than that. So, here we are, my favorite day of the week for over/unders (The stats prove it; 68-35-6 last year on Monday over/unders), and I’ve got some solid ones that we’ll hopefully cash in for a profit. Let’s hope I keep up my Monday dominance…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers (BestBet)
Jair Jurrjens vs Chris Capuano
UNDER 7.5
This game caught my eye right away for a variety of reasons. One, my biggest vibe for today was attached to this specific over/under, and that’s just very interesting to me because: A)No Jair Jurrjens over/under has stuck out to me AT ALL this year, and B)I never really get a strong vibe on a Chris Capuano game.Therefore, there’s something significant here. I mean, my stats with both pitchers weren’t special in 2011 (5-4-2 on Jurrjens last year, while I was 5-4on Capuano), but this is a game I’m going to attack, also because of the evidence supporting it.
Right now, Jurrjens’ numbers for the season look horrid (0-1, 8.10 ERA, 2.25 WHIP), but obviously he’s not that bad. Not even close. There’s a reason Jurrjens has looked masterful almost throughout his entire 2008-2011 tenure with Atlanta, thus meaning I expect his numbers to start somewhat returning normal, although there’s no way I think he’ll ultimately come close to duplicating his remarkable statline from last year (13-6, 2.96 ERA). Even so, Jurrjens is one of those guys who gets by with finesse, rather than strikeouts, and with that comes being a smart pitcher, thus meaning he should be able to figure out his early-season struggles. Vegas apparently thinks so also, otherwise they would have given under bettors the extra half-run and made it 8, rather than making under 7.5 at -120, with the potential for it to drop as low as 7. I’m counting on Jurrjens to have a bounce-back performance here; think of it this way, he won’t be as bad or worse as he’s been so far this year.
I don’t recall ever having such a strong under vibe on a Capuano start, but it happened, and probably with good reason. Ever since a disappointing 2012 debut in San Diego, Capuano has produced consecutive quality starts, a streak that I believe he can continue here tonight at home. Even more impressive is that in his last start, he kept Brewer hitters at bay, limiting them to six hits and two runs over six innings, in his former stomping grounds of Milwaukee. While his ERA currently sits at 4.50, I think Capuano will ultimately end up around that exact number when all is said and done - most likely lower. Therefore,with the Dodgers inevitably (In my opinion, they are legit. The end of 2011 showed it, too) staying at the top of the NL West, they’re going to need other pitchers to step up besides Clayton Kershaw and maintain that, and I really believe Capuano will be one of them. He always had the talent early on his career with the Brew Crew, and while his year with the Mets last year had its ups anddowns, I feel this could be the year he has put it all together again. Perhaps most importantly, Capuano had his best start last season, if not of his entire career, against the Braves, hurling a beautiful two-hit, 13-strikeout shutout. Hopefully he gives us at least partially of that success tonight and keeps his quality start streak going.
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets
Tim Lincecum vs Miguel Batista
UNDER [Waiting for Line to Go Up to 8; Will Still Take It At 7.5]
Before I get started, let me warn you that Lincecum is not one of my better pitchers, asI was a measly 2-4-1 on his over/unders last year. The fact that I only took seven of his games in an entire season should be all you need to know about my mentality with him, in that I don’t really have a good beat on the former Cy Young. But, in this case, similar to the one I had with Jurrjens, there’s just no way Lincecum is going to keep up at his horrendous pace. 10.54 ERA? 1.90 WHIP? I guess that’s our theme of the day, banking on former great pitchers to bounce back all in one evening. But unlike Jurrjens, Lincecum has literally been on top of the league in the past, so there has to be some sort of point where he just begins to turn it around. Why not against the sometimes-offensively-challenged Mets? He has seven career starts against them, in which he recorded a delightful 2.87 ERA and 51 strikeouts in 47 innings. Furthermore, he stifled them last year in two starts (13 IP, 1 run, 9 hits, 18Ks), which should indicate that he begins to turn it around here.
Then there’s Miguel Batista, who is probably just some no-name veteran journeyman scrub to most of you. Well, if you were paying attention in 2011, Batista was actually having sort of a renaissance year towards the end of last season, when the Mets allowed him to make four starts, three of which were quality ones! In that small sample, he also completely dominated a solid Reds offense, in tossing a complete game, two-hit shutout, while only walking two and striking out five, in his final start of the year. So, as you see, Batista may still have it, as he certainly was showing it towards the end of '11. The only problem - that was last year. And, another problem - this is just his first start of the season, as he’s been pitching out of the bullpen, which always has the potential to be a huge variable from a mental perspective. Well, the main reason to make this bet is because of Lincecum, so all we need is a fine start from Mr. Batista and we should be good.
Other 4/23 Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Lucas Harrell vs Zack Greinke OVER 7
Kyle Kendrick vs Wade Miley OVER 9
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
), but I am not going to be happy at all if we lose this under by a half run. WHY is Lincecum pitching to Mike Baxter with two outs and a runner in scoring position... and the pitcher on deck? Yeah, Baxter is hitting eighth and is a bench player on this Mets team, but even early in the game, just bring up the pitcher and get out of the jam, especially when it's Miguel Batista, who has to be an automatic out. It's his first start of the year, I doubt he's taken any batting practice prior to today, so you know he'd get you out of the inning. Don't be greedy and try and get the pitcher to lead off the next inning. I hate when a stupid decision, especially one sooo avoidable, factors into an over/under. Hopefully it doesn't bite us in the end.
