The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - April 24, 2012 - YTD: 56-46-2 (Originally started 2-7), 14-2 OVER PAST 3 DAYS!

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 56-46-2, -$294 (54-39-2 since starting 2-7 because of rust!)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42,+$1,104 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)


See, most bettors who go on a 14-2 run, let alone in three days, get ahead of themselves and act like they’ve never been there before. The Cat, meanwhile, takes it in stride and keeps a steady head - this incredible success isn’t new to me. In fact, when you’re a 56-58% bettor or higher, you’re supposed to have streaks like these to downplay the inevitable rough patches you will hit, thus obtaining your desired high-50’s winning percentage at the end of the year. In any case, I expect this domination to continue as I feel my full rhythm again from last season, and we’ll keep it going with these games on this Tuesday slate…


**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
(I think about MLB Over/Unders basically every hour of every day. Sometimes my final bet isn’t final until minutes before the game begins, so keep checking back. Continuous repetition also contributes to success)


Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians (Best Bet)
Jonathan Sanchez vs Derek Lowe
OVER 8.5

If you were to ask me who the most surprising team in baseball is, I’d say without question, it’s the Kansas City Royals. 3-13? Are you kidding me? Most casual baseball fans would act like this is normal, but let’s be honest - after all their years of sucking over the past decade, this was supposed to be their breakout year when they’d flirt with a winning record and maybe even nail down second place. Alas, they haven’t even sniffed .500 since their impressive opening series against the Angels, which should indicate that this is still a solid ballclub that will go on a run eventually. In the meantime, it’s really the pitching that’s been their downfall, as their starting rotation (Aside from Bruce Chen and future Cy Young winner Danny Duffy) has struggled mightily. Jonathan Sanchez takes some of the blame for that, as he just hasn’t looked like his former San Francisco Giant self, when there were times when he was simply unhittable. Instead, we have this new Sanchez who has a disgusting 6.39 ERA and1.89 WHIP, with bits of the old (Ten walks in 12 innings). Delving further into his performance, the stats might be a little misleading, as two of his three starts have produced acceptable five-inning, two-run efforts, while it was a thrashing at the hands of Cleveland in his second outing that misconstrued his stats. Even so, while I do think Sanchez will eventually figure it out and become solid again, I don’t like this spot for him. The Indians already hit him hard in Kansas City, and their bats have been pretty consistent lately. Also, they know the book on Sanchez, as they were patient in that game in taking four walks in his 2.2 innings of work. Sanchez has been in the American League for three weeks and Cleveland already knows him well.

Opposing him will be Derek Lowe, who I tip my hat to for just being such a gamer. I feel like no matter what team he ends up on, he’ll just always be a nice veteran anchor to have in the rotation. To begin his Indians tenure, you’d think he’s looked alright at first glance, as he’s recorded a very fine 3.50 ERA, to go along with his two wins and two quality starts. Other than that, though, there’s nothing to brag about within Lowe’s statline. His WHIP is an atrocious 1.72, which is never good for a guy that has trouble striking people out. And boy ,does Lowe have low strikeout numbers, as he’s averaging a mere one punch-out per start. When teams are hitting you all over the diamond, and you can’t strike people out, well, that’s not a good sign. Another factor that could contribute to this over is that the Royals already roughed up Lowe a bit less than two weeks ago. While they only scored three runs, they did churn out 11 hits, leading me to believe the bats can do it again against a decently hittable pitcher. Most importantly, this team has lost ten games in arow - and it’s not the offense’s fault. Look for these talented young hitters to get going again here to try and end the futility, especially in an over's haven like Progressive Field in a live Tuesday night atmosphere.


Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres
Gio Gonzalez vs Clayton Richard
UNDER 6.5

Right now, if the season ended, Gio Gonzalez would be one of the top five candidates for National League Cy Young. That’s how dominant he’s been over his first three starts. Then again, you could’ve said the same thing last year, when he gave up a mere 15 earned runs over his first ten starts spanning throughout all of April and May. The fact is, Gonzalez races out of the gate, as proven in years’ past - the only variable I was worried about in effecting that trend is pitching for a new team and in a new league. Apparently, none of that mattered, as the former Oakland southpaw has pitched like an absolute machine. Look at his early overall numbers thus far: 1-0, 17.2 IP, 11 hits, 5BBs, 21 Ks, 0.91 WHIP. And no, it’s not a fluke because he was showing shades of greatness ever since I tabbed him as a potential elite pitcher in 2010. Perhaps Gonzalez has finally taken it to the next level, or at least for now, as he always pitches well in April. Luckily for us in taking this under, it’s still April. Even if it wasn’t, I do believe Gonzalez is primed to fulfill mega potential.

Of course, when it comes to taking an under, there really shouldn’t be any concerns with how Gio pitches. On the other hand, there should be a concerne very time Clayton Richard takes the hill, based on his last two starts. Ever since an impressive 2012 debut in which he shut out the National League-leading Dodgers to the tune of seven innings, two hits, and no earned runs, Richard has looked the complete opposite, getting shelled by the Dodgers and Rockies in his ensuing starts. The second Dodger game, I’ll give him a pass on, as it’s common when a somewhat hittable pitcher dominates a team, only for said team to dominate him less than a full week later, and the Rockie outing (No pun intended) also gets him some leeway, as that was at Coors Field. Therefore, I have confidence in Richard to turn it back around because he’s a smart pitcher. I’ve watched him several times before and his baseball IQ stood out to me; he just knows how to pitch and work all over the strike zone. In addition, he’s a solid control pitcher who keeps his walks down, as evident in the recent past when he’s yielded about an acceptable two walks per start. I have confidence that he’ll have some success tonight against a feisty Nationals line-up and somewhat keep up with Gonzalez. This is a classic battle of crafty lefthanders, which hopefully scores us an under as a result.


Other 4/24 Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Jamie Moyer vs Kevin Correia UNDER [Waiting for the line to go to 8. Will still takeif 7.5, but you should wait till gametime. Why is it even 7.5? Vegas likesunder]
Ervin Santana vs David Price UNDER 8 (This will absolutely be a one-run game. Only afraid of 5-4outcome)
Henderson Alvarez vs Tommy Hunter OVER 9 (3-0 on Tommy Hunter over/unders so far this year)
Jason Vargas vs Max Scherzer UNDER 8.5


**MayAdd More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
 
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Final dollar amounts for my 7 o'clock games:

Sanchez vs Lowe OVER 8/8.5 - $112 for $100 ($77 for $70 on over 8.5, $35 for $30 on over 8)
Santana vs Price UNDER 8 - $47 for $40
Alvarez vs Hunter OVER 9 - $38 for $35
Vargas vs Scherzer UNDER 8.5 - $45 for $35
Moyer vs Correia UNDER 7.5 - $25 for $25 (Would've been more if line was 8)
 

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Indians OVER is down to 8 now on 5dimes. The OVER is -115. Not too shabby...
 
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Last dollar amount...

Gonzalez vs Richard UNDER 6/6.5 - $68 for $55 ($50 for $40 on under 6.5, $18 for $15 on under 6)
 
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Well that was a very frustrating best bet loss. Wish there was a stat to confirm that the Cleveland Indians were the first team in recent memory to have TWO situations in ONE game where they had bases-loaded and nobody out... and couldn't score a run in either scenario. I don't recall something like that ever happening before, and it's especially frustrating since we lost the over basically by ONE run. C'monn mannn, that's ridiculous. And wasn't the heart of the order up in both scenarios??? Are you serious?

Also was 100% right in Moyer vs Correia, as was Vegas. They were purposely TRYING to sucker people into betting the over, which was the wrong bet if you were keeping up with the game. That was especially obvious when the same exact pitching matchup featured a line of 8 last night, yet for some reason, it was 7.5 today. Not exactly sure why, because it's a Tuesday? Moyer and Correia both pitched masterfully, and it was a pitcher's duel into the 7th before the bullpens took over and completely blew it up. Can't do anything about that.

So while my record on the night might be 2-4 (Well, as long as this second best bet Gonzalez vs Richard under holds up), it easily should've been 4-2 and my dominance should've continued. Oh well, you just have to look past the bullshit, keep doing your thing, and you'll be rewarded consistently, which is what I plan on doing tomorrow. Can't let awful luck from one day get in your way
 

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The point is once you make one post you cant stop. Its every single thread. I guess you do need something to pass the time since you gave up on your copy/paste picks thread.
 

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The point is once you make one post you cant stop. Its every single thread. I guess you do need something to pass the time since you gave up on your copy/paste picks thread.

Good luck to you as well.
 

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