Indianapolis Colts
Record: 2-14
*
Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
This we've known since the Colts wrapped up the NFL's worst record. I think where we're all really intrigued is what the Colts decide to do at No. 34. Do they go with an offensive piece (WR, TE) to help Luck, or do they try to shore up a defense that has huge needs in a couple of spots? I think right now I'd be more inclined to help my young QB, but we'll have to see how the value falls.
Washington Redskins (from Rams)
Record: 5-11
*
Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
They gave up a lot, but in the end, the Redskins will get their man. I'm excited to see what RG3 can accomplish in D.C., and the work the Redskins did to add pieces to the wide receiving corps (regardless of the prices paid) will certainly make the transition easier. Great kid, big-time promise. Should be fun to watch.
Minnesota Vikings
Record: 3-13
*
Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
I still think this one could go a few ways. The Vikings could target the offensive line, as we've had them pegged throughout this process, or they could trade down. But my hunch for now says they'll go with Claiborne, the gifted corner out of LSU. It's a need spot, and if they can't get a deal done to move down (I believe that's their preferred route), he fits.
Cleveland Browns
Record: 4-12
*
Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
I'm sticking with Richardson here. The Browns are in serious need of help on offense, and given that they have some talent along the offensive line, Richardson can be successful early and take a lot of pressure off the quarterback. The Browns have other needs, but need and value line up here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 5-11
*
Matt Kalil, OT, USC
If the board falls this way, I can also see the Bucs working the phones to get out of this spot. Kalil really would be a nice addition for this team, but the Bucs could shop the pick to a team in more desperate need of a top tackle.
St. Louis Rams (from Washington)
Record: 2-14
*
Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St.
I had St. Louis as a team likely to move down, given that we know the front office has been openly interested in the idea. But if the Rams are still here, I think Blackmon is the pick. He'll pay immediate dividends for the offense, and
Sam Bradford will finally have a target most of us evaluators can see as a potential true No. 1.
Philadelphia Eagles (from Jacksonville)
Record: 8-8
*
Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi St.
There you go. I broke one of my own rules. Ah, but let's have some fun. In this scenario, the Eagles move up to get a defensive tackle they covet, and Jacksonville gets to move down because it can't maximize value for a top need here. Cox has a chance to become a Pro Bowl player regardless of where you line him up inside. The Eagles simply have to become stronger against the run and up the middle in general, and Cox provides an impact.
Miami Dolphins
Record: 6-10
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
No surprises here. I've said before I think Tannehill has been a little overhyped by the draft process, but I agree with colleague Todd McShay that the upside is undeniable. This really is the best setting for Tannehill, too. We know Miami lacks a long-range plan at quarterback, and while Tannehill isn't an immediate starter, you take him for the promise. Joe Philbin gets another young project to take on. He's succeeded with young QBs before.
Carolina Panthers
Record: 6-10
*
Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
I've had the Panthers picking a DT in this spot before, but I think they'll end up with Kuechly if they just want the best overall football player available. Carolina has some talent at linebacker, but it's been a famously banged-up group over the past couple of years. This is a future Pro Bowl player, and the Carolina defense will be better with him in the lineup.
Buffalo Bills
Record: 6-10
Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
There are plenty of draft boards that will have Floyd as the best overall WR in this class. The Bills could go a few ways here, but they really need another threat in the passing game, and Floyd gives them size and smarts. He'll grasp the route tree early, and can both stretch the field and work underneath.
Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 7-9
*
David DeCastro, G, Stanford
I have guard down as a top need for the Chiefs, and DeCastro will fix that problem immediately. This is as elite as you'll get from this position. He is the best guard prospect since
Steve Hutchinson and is the kind of player who improves your running game overnight. Not a tough call.
Seattle Seahawks
Record: 7-9
*
Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse
The Seahawks need a pass-rusher, and I really like the fit. Pete Carroll can use a player with Jones' length and athleticism in a "Leo" role, and create an added dimension for the rush. The Seahawks will have built a pretty formidable defense if they can add a final piece or two up front. Jones makes sense here.
Arizona Cardinals
Record: 8-8
Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
They could really use an offensive tackle, but Ingram is a steal in this spot. (Seattle could certainly be in play for him.) While we can quibble with short arms and a lack of height, Ingram is a disruptive pass-rusher with an arsenal of moves and doesn't get engulfed by bigger tackles the way you'd worry he might. Arizona won't pass on a guy many consider the best sack artist in the draft.
Dallas Cowboys
Record: 8-8
Mark Barron, S, Alabama
No change here from the previous mock. Dallas has been aggressive in targeting the secondary in free agency, and Barron is another big upgrade to what was a really weak unit in 2011. Barron is the best safety in the draft, and the Cowboys can't go wrong if he's available. Dallas might be tempted on DeCastro if he's still here, but the Cowboys will be thrilled with Barron.
Jacksonville Jaguars (from Philadelphia)
Record: 5-11
*
Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
The Jags move down out of the top 10 and still get good value at a huge need. Gilmore is capable of coming in and starting right away, and the Jags were simply decimated in the secondary last season. Another defensive end would be helpful, but if Ingram is off the board, they can't get a ton of value here at that spot.
New York Jets
Record: 8-8
Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
I think Rex Ryan can maximize Coples. He might not have the arsenal of moves you want out of a pure 4-3 DE, but Ryan might also bring him inside. Think of how Houston used
J.J. Watt last season. Regardless, the Jets need to find ways to create more pressure, and Coples can be a good piece of the puzzle.
Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland)
Record: 8-8
*
Cordy Glenn, G/T, Georgia
Some will see Glenn as a right tackle. I don't disagree, but I think he can be dominant inside. A huge body, he'll knock people back in the run game, and he has the feet to pull and line up linebackers on the second level. The Bengals are weak at guard, and they have to become more explosive in the run game.
San Diego Chargers
Record: 8-8
Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Reiff would be a great value here. The pass rush is also something I can see San Diego targeting, but the offensive line was a big problem for stretches in 2011, and in Reiff you get a player who could start right away on the right side with the upside of a left tackle. The Chargers could go a few ways here.
Chicago Bears
Record: 8-8
Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
This is a pick I'm staying with. Offensive line value isn't great here if both Glenn and Reiff are gone, and pass rush is a big need for the Bears. Quick off the edge, Mercilus utilizes great anticipation and some natural gifts as a pass-rusher, with closing speed and long arms once he has the quarterback in sight. The Bears could use some pass-rushing insurance with
Julius Peppers not getting any younger.
Tennessee Titans
Record: 9-7
*
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
One of the best fits in the draft. The Titans lost their top cover corner in free agency, and Kirkpatrick has the talent and experience to contribute right away. I've talked to people who think of him more as a Cover 2 fit, but Kirkpatrick is good enough to be successful even if you don't think the system is perfectly tailored to him.
Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 9-7
*
Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
Last year the Bengals hit a home run with
A.J. Green. In Hill, they're looking for a home run threat. The prospect of Green, Hill and emerging tight end
Jermaine Gresham creates a nightmare scenario for opposing defensive coordinators. This is a bit of a luxury pick, but the Bengals knocked out a big need with Glenn and can afford to take this shot. And remember,
Jerome Simpson is now with the Vikings.
Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta)
Record: 4-12
Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma St.
For weeks we've seen Weeden as a great fit for the Browns at No. 37 overall. The problem is Weeden is the last QB in the draft (after RG3) that most front-office folks believe can start games early if called on. The Browns really want to find competition for
Colt McCoy. If they don't get Weeden here, they risk losing him. They know they can still get a good player early in Round 2. I think you secure the QB here.
Detroit Lions
Record: 10-6
Doug Martin, RB, Boise St.
The Lions went with a running back last year when we were sure they'd go after an offensive lineman or a corner. I think they could trade down if they don't see the value they want here in the secondary, but this is a team that really needs a complete back, and Martin is the best one in the draft after Richardson. If
Mikel Leshoure isn't back at 100 percent -- a legit question -- the Lions are back where they were last year in Week 1.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 12-4
*
Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
This is a great value and a big need for the Steelers. Poe fits the physical profile of the heir to
Casey Hampton, a true nose tackle. But I think Poe is athletic enough to be a 3-technique in Dick LeBeau's system. The Steelers really need to build up the depth on the defensive line, and Poe is a great fit.
Denver Broncos
Record: 8-8
*
Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
This is another pick I'm staying with since the previous mock. With LSU in 2011, so many guys made so many plays, you have to go back and look at where it started. In many instances, it was with the disruptive Brockers, who can create havoc from the inside, blowing up the run and penetrating against the pass. Denver needs to strengthen the inside to complement a solid group of pass-rushers.
Houston Texans
Record: 10-6
*
Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
The Texans now have a void at tight end, and Fleener is the best one in the class. Houston's offense really needs an effective tight end, but not just in an underneath role. Fleener is a great one because he has the size and quickness to work underneath against linebackers, but also the straight-line speed of a receiver to stretch the field in the seam and on the edges. I like the fit.
New England Patriots (from Saints)
Record: 13-3
Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
Upshaw doesn't have the elite measurables, and he's not a speed merchant. What he can do is immediately help a defense with his skills as a pass-rusher and his willingness to use leverage and vision to do damage against the run. This is the kind of complete player Bill Belichick goes for, and he's a nice value here at a need position.
Green Bay Packers
Record: 15-1
Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise St.
The Packers' pass rush became a disaster by the end of the season, and I'd be shocked if they don't target someone here who can help fix that problem. McClellin has the length and skills to be a great fit in the Green Bay system, and his experience should have him ready to contribute early. That's important, because the Packers are good now and don't want a developmental guy here. They need a contributor.
Baltimore Ravens
Record: 12-4
*
Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama
Finding a leader in the middle of the defense to take over for
Ray Lewis is something the organization has to keep in mind, and while addressing the interior of the offensive line might be a bigger need in the short term, you can't really pass on the value of Hightower here. He is a potentially dominant interior linebacker and has been well-schooled.
San Francisco 49ers
Record: 13-3
Kevin Zeitler, G, Wisconsin
The 49ers have gotten deeper at wide receiver in free agency, and if Hill and Fleener are off the board, I think they'll go after a big need in the run game here. The 49ers might have more weapons on the edges, but if they can't run the ball effectively, it won't matter. Zeitler can move people up front and start early.
New England Patriots
Record: 13-3
Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame
The Patriots will address the pass rush with one of the first two picks, but I think they'll also look for help in the secondary if they like the value. Smith is a very good player. He takes great routes to the ball, and he doesn't shy away when he is closer to the line and has to take on runners. Corner could be a target here, but Smith also makes your coverage better.
New York Giants
Record: 9-7
*
Bobby Massie, OT, Ole Miss
The Giants won a Super Bowl with a weakness at left tackle, but they still need to address it. Massie could actually go much higher, perhaps as high as Detroit at No. 23, so he's a solid value here. QB
Eli Manning is a really tough player, but the Giants don't want to rely on his toughness if they can help it.
