The Cat's MLB Over/Unders & Detailed Writeups - April 26, 2012 - YTD: 60-54-2 (58-47-2 since starting 2-7 bc of rust)

2012 MLB O/U Record: 60-54-2,-$293 (58-47-2 since starting 2-7 because of rust)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42,+$1,104 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)


Only 2-4 yesterday, but that’s perfectly acceptable when both of your wins are your two biggest bets, and they were significantly bigger than the other ones so Ipulled in a solid $126 yesterday. Still, though, I know it sounds crazy but I feel like I care more about my record than the money. My record right now is nothing special, even if you take away my rusty 2-7 beginning to the season,but I know I’m getting back into 57% or higher territory in time. I just knowit, there’s absolutely no doubt in my mind whatsoever, and I’ve showed shades of that, like in my 14-2 run over this past Saturday, Sunday and Monday stretch. Let’s try and keep it going today…


**DollarAmounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**


I’ve got two afternoon games, here’s the first one:

Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians
Luis Mendoza vs Josh Tomlin
OVER 8.5

These are two guys I’ve known well for awhile so I have to give this one a shot.Being a Ranger fan, I distinctly remember when Luis Mendoza came up in our system and we gave him his shot at the end of 2007 and throughout 2008; it didnot work out at all, as he was roughed up in most of the 15 or so starts he madewith us during his tenure. As a result, I find it VERY surreal that he somehowfound his way back into the Majors, first as a reliever with Kansas City, andnow he’s starting again. Also of note, Mendoza owns the unique accomplishment of leading everyone in Spring Training in ERA (It was under 1!). That successhasn’t translated over to the regular season yet, nor do I think it will, as Ithink this is the Luis Mendoza we should grow accustomed to: 6.92 ERA and 2.54 WHIP. Yikes. Obviously he’s not going to continue at that record-setting horrendous pace, but it is more-so the Luis Mendoza that I expected to get after following him so closely in Texas.

Then we have Josh Tomlin, another interesting character. Tomlin set the record last year for most consecutive starts to begin a Major League career, which is pretty cool because that’s consistency at its finest right there. He foreshadowed last season’s success at the end of 2010 when I first noticed him, and I think he can continue to be a quality mid-rotation pitcher. In this spot,though, he’s facing a very underrated Royals lineup that just banged out eight runs in my best bet over last night, and should continue to be live today afterbreaking their ridiculous 12-game losing streak. Tomlin is coming off a fantastic start in which he went pitch-for-pitch with Felix Hernandez (I had that under, remember)… but that was a week ago. A few extra days’ rest couldalso be a variable that plays into our favor. Not a huge bet but I’m going over.

I'm doing $30 for $25 on this game

In my Josh Tomlin analysis, that should read "Most consecutive starts going at least five innings to begin a Major League career...", which is a stat I love

weather doesn't look great. Hopefully that doesn't effect your game. GL

GL. I'm on the Indians, so i won't be playing this total. BOL and look fwd to your BEST BETS.

Bases loaded nobody out to start the game. That's how you begin an over, espcially in an early 12:05 game. Mentally, you're in big trouble if you're on the mound, especially when you're a guy like Josh Tomlin who just continually throws strikes and doesn't have overpowering stuff

CatsOverUnders said:

Bases loaded nobody out to start the game. That's how you begin an over, espcially in an early 12:05 game. Mentally, you're in big trouble if you're on the mound, especially when you're a guy like Josh Tomlin who just continually throws strikes and doesn't have overpowering stuff

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What a huge way to get out of the gym. Hosmer was up w/ the bases juiced. Now i hope Cleveland scores 8 for you in the Bot 1st =)

Followed you with the over Cat

varkeyboy said:

What a huge way to get out of the gym. Hosmer was up w/ the bases juiced. Now i hope Cleveland scores 8 for you in the Bot 1st =)

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Meant to say JAM! lol.

My other afternoon game...

Hector Noesi vs Rick Porcello UNDER 9 - $23 for $20

Here's some brief analysis. I don't know Hector Noesi that well, but I do know he is much better than his current numbers (1-2, 9.49 ERA, 1.86 WHIP), as evident when he pitched an eight-inning beauty against the Athletics (5 hits, 0 runs, 6 Ks) a couple of weeks ago, so the potential is there. Our most dependable factor will be Rick Porcello, although I have to be honest and admit I have never liked Porcello; always thought he was overrated and really not that great. But like with Noesi, he certainly is not as bad as his season numbers indicate (1-1, 6.32 ERA, 1.53 WHIP), and even better for us is that those numbers are skewed because of one really atrocious start (1 IP, 10 hits, 8 earned runs against Texas), while his other two outings were seven-inning quality starts. Furthermore, Porcello handled Seattle very well in two starts last year, and with the line as high as it is, it's a very solid bet.

Indians have bases loaded, nobody out... but is that good for the over? Considering they were the first team in recent memory the other night to have this situation TWICE and not score a run in either one. Law of Averages indicates they SHOULD plate at least a few here in this case

Not the start I wanted to today, although that Mendoza vs Tomlin matchup had all the makings of an over, and really should have been an over if you were watching the game, as both starters struggled considerably. But it happens and you move on...


Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox (Best Bet)
Felix Doubront vs Philip Humber
UNDER 8

I really like this matchup of young pitchers. Well, Humber isn't really young (29, to be exact), but with the way he's burst onto the scene over the past year and a half, you'd think so. The fact is, Humber was always a widely-regarded top prospect ever since being drafted by the Mets in 2004, but for some reason, it took him long to get an opportunity. Now that he's gotten one, though, he has proven himself to be a legitimate solid starting Major League pitcher, if not more. He's coming off a perfect game (Ironically on the same day as my own 8-0 perfect day, in which his perfect game was my best bet under), which is a variable to consider because it's a mindset that is so rarely, rarely explored going into a start, but I think he'll be just fine. As I pointed out last week, he's one of those guys that just knows how to serve as a model of consistency. Last year, he had a string of 11 quality starts in a 12-start period, and so far in 2012, he's looked fabulous, posting a 0.63 ERA and 0.63 WHIP to go along with 16 Ks, albeit in two starts. I always get nervous about taking an under when the Red Sox offense is involved, especially when they're on a hot run after just absolutely hammering Minnesota pitching, but Humber is here to stay and could be entering the elite soon enough.

Speaking of becoming elite, is Felix Doubront on his way to that territory? Boy has this guy looked good. In the first three starts of his Major League career, Doubront has a 3.94 ERA, but the stat that stands out most is his 20 strikeouts in 16 innings of work. I'll be honest, I thought nothing of this guy coming into the season, and thought he'd just be a mediocre-at-best fifth starter in the Boston rotation, but after watching him, I'm genuinely impressed. Shutting down the Yankees last Saturday (Before the bullpen completely exploded) over six four-hit innings sealed the deal for me, and I'm sold. Doubront will be a mainstay, and dare I say it, one of the brightest spots on that veteran Boston pitching staff all year long. On MLB Network, hopefully these two '12 breakout pitchers showcase their best stuff tonight and give us an under.

Also taking:

Drew Hutchison vs Brian Matusz OVER 9 - $18 for $15 (Small bet because I really do like Matusz and think he's close to becoming good. Also, I'm not really familiar with Hutchison but he was horrible in his first start, and these two offenses are due to break out at the end of this series)

YES! I was just going to ask you about the O's OVER. Good to see you on it as well....

Curious to know how much you're laying on Red Sox/White Sox UNDER 8. I like it myself. 9 (-160) available on 5dimes. Hmmmmmmmmmm...

Look fwd to your $ amount on SOX under.

Final amount for Doubront vs Humber under 8 is $51 for $45

Adding a game...

Jackson vs Volquez UNDER 6.5 - $25 for $20

And wow, surprised to see Humber get lit up early in that third inning. My apologies for that