The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - April 27, 2012 - YTD: 61-57-3 (59-50-3 since starting 2-7 because of rust)

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 61-57-3, -$372 (59-50-3 since starting 2-7 because of rust)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)


My apologies for my 1-3-1 performance yesterday, especially for that lost bestb et. I don’t think anybody expected Philip Humber to implode the way he did, but as I warned you, it’s very risky taking an under when the potent Red Sox offense is involved on any night. I got the quality start I anticipated from Felix Doubront, but yeah, it was less likely that Humber would get tattooed the way he did, given how consistent he’s been since bursting onto the scene last season. But no matter a winning night or a losing night, you just move on tot he next, and luckily, we’ve got ourselves a very live Friday night slate. I’m excited about tonight, and as a bettor, when you’re very emotionally into it, that usually means good things are on the horizon…


**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**


Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies (Best Bet)
Paul Maholm vs Roy Halladay
UNDER 7

One roadblock bettors sometimes run into is the bias or personal affection they have for a certain team or player, based on previous success, which, in turn, clouds their better judgment. Why do I mention that? Well, that easily applies to my love for Paul Maholm, who has consistently been one of my favorite pitchers since I began my MLB Over/Under conquest in 2009. And what’s not to love?

Throughout his tenure with Pittsburgh, Maholm was a very underrated “unders machine,” all the while Vegas would slowly start showing him respect with lower lines. However, since going to the Cubs for the 2012 season, my feeling for Maholm just hasn’t been there like in years’ past, which is why I feel very good about this specific bet. I had no strong vibes on ANY Paul Maholm starts this year (Although I am 1-0 in his over/unders so far)… until this one: A distinct under, and against arguably the best pitcher in the game. Maholm’s numbers look ugly so far (8.36 ERA, 1.57 WHIP), but there could be a number of reasons for that. When you’re with one team for your whole career (Seven years, to be exact), and then you switch cities, let alone to your former division rival, it could takea little while getting used to, which is perfectly acceptable. That’s a big aspect of my betting - human psychology. These pitchers are regular people just like us, and I know if I was in the situation Maholm was in, being in a calm place like Pittsburgh for many years where winning isn’t expected, switching to a diehard city like Chicago that is starving for success and where fans quickly get on your back, I’m telling you, it’s a huge adjustment to make. Luckily for us, it appears Maholm is finally on the right track to being his normal self again, if his last start is any indication, when he shut down a solid Reds lineup to one run and four hits over six strong innings. That’s the Paul Maholm I grew to love.

Maholm’s counterpart, Roy Halladay, is certainly someone we shouldn’t have to worry about. After all, the general consensus from baseball fans all over the countryis that Halladay is the best pitcher in the league (I would respectfully disagree with that, though), and has been so for a few years now. It looks like much of the same for him in 2012, as he’s 3-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, with all of his starts being quality ones in which he went at least seven innings each time out. As long as he continues that run, which is the norm for him, we should be in great shape. Furthermore, the weather conditions will absolutely be in our favor, as the wind is expected to be blowing 16 MPH in, which could be very beneficial for Maholm. The under here will be one of my bigger bets of the year and I strongly suggest that you all take it.


Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
Wandy Rodriguez vs Mike Leake
OVER 8

Here we have an NL Central affair between two pitchers who are on two completely different roads. There is Wandy Rodriguez, experiencing nice success thus far, as he usually does in April. While he’s only 1-2 to start, he’s got a tremendous 1.42 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, to go along with 16 strikeouts compared to just six walks. Looking deeper into his statline, aside from an unspectacular start against Atlanta, he’s given up just one earned run in his other three starts, spanning 20.1 innings. While that doesn’t exactly shine light on this over for tonight, it’s meant to show you that Rodriguez is going at a crazy pace that is bound to end sooner than later. Don’t get me wrong, I think Wandy is one of the most underrated southpaws in the game. But he’s at a pace he can’t keep up with, and I think it begins to crumble a bit in a hitter’s park like Cincinnati, against a dangerous offense featuring Joey Votto & Co.

Our more dependable factor for the over will be the opposing pitcher tonight, Mike Leake, who has experienced much different results in 2012. After a very promising rookie year last season, Leake has gone downhill, registering an 0-2 mark with a 6.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. I don’t know about the rest of you but I always thought Leake would be a solid big-league pitcher, an accolade that he can still easily accomplish, as he’s only 24. Right now, however, ever since recording a quality start in his season debut versus St. Louis, it hasn’t been pretty for him, giving up ten runs in 12 innings of work since then. The Astros don’t exactly have an explosive offense, but as I have stressed since the beginning, it is very underrated with enough pieces to do damage on many nights. I sense Leake’s struggles continue, even if it just a little bit and not as bad as his prior two outings, which should give us a double-digit combined score. Get on the over for this Friday night fight.


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves
AJ Burnett vs Tommy Hanson
UNDER 7

This game caught my eye for a variety of reasons. One, there’s the storyline which sadly isn’t being played up by any media outlet outside of Pittsburgh, that being the Pirates returning to the scene of the crime where their 2011 season was stolen from them. If that doesn’t ring a bell, then you obviously forgot the biggest blown call of last season, when a Brave baserunner was ruled safe at home despite CLEARLY being out, to conclude a wild 14 or 15-inning game, which began an extended Pirates losing streak that knocked them out of first in the NLCentral (In July!), and ultimately back into obscurity, unfortunately. So, coming into this game, the Pirates will be very emotional, but luckily, that shouldn’t affect their scheduled pitcher for tonight, AJ Burnett, who had nothing to do with Pittsburgh a year ago. In fact, Burnett seemingly came back from the grave (He was supposed to be out until past the all-star break!) in his first start to throw seven shutout innings against the defending championCardinals, while holding them to three hits and striking out seven. THAT, ladies and gentlemen, is the AJ Burnett we can expect to see for much of the season. As I predicted coming into the year, Burnett becoming a Pirate was a perfect fit, as he’s always had the stuff to be a consistent upper echelon pitcher (As he’s proven, too), but going to New York completely ruined his mindset, and one bad start would snowball into a month’s worth of struggles because of the idiotic overreacting fanbase (I’m from NY and can say that because I witness it first-hand). Moving to a significantly less-pressure city like Pittsburgh will do wonders for his overall 2012 performance, not to mention being able to pitch in the National League again, and I think the success from his first start will carry over into this one.

Then there’s Tommy Hanson, a guy that is well on his way to becoming a legitimate ace in the highly-regarded Atlanta organization. Hanson has always been considered a top prospect, and he’s backing that moniker up again to begin 2012 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. His 23 punch-outs in 24 innings are pretty nifty as well. The bottom line is that the ascension of Hanson will continue all throughout this year, and going up against the weak-hitting Pirates should contribute to that. Just a delightful pitching matchup on a Friday night in a pitcher’s park; that should add up to an under.


Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians
Jered Weaver vs Justin Masterson
OVER [Wait forLine to Drop to 7; Will Still Take if 7.5, but Wait till Last Minute]

This game is mostly all about vibe for me. I mean, after all, look at the pitching matchup - it’s two aces on the mound. Well, the Angels certainly have one going tonight, but as for the Indians, some will argue the other way. In some aspects of the word, Justin Masterson is indeed an ace, or at least of the Rick Helling variety (Remember him?), where he has shown an ability to win a lot of games and eat up innings, but it’s just not enough to ignore the label that in the end, he’s a hittable pitcher. Masterson certainly has been very hittable since a remarkable Opening Day effort, giving up 17 runs in 13.2 innings! Yikes. It’s been so bad that his numbers for the season have skyrocketed significantly(6.65 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) - even against weaker offenses in Oakland and Anaheim. If he can’t control those two batting orders in two pitcher's parks, how will he contain the Angels in a hitter’s park like Progressive Field? This is a notable slump for Masterson that I don’t think can be solved within one start, let alone against a hungry, powerful lineup.

Jered Weaver is as good as they get, and is once again proving that this year, as he’s 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. There’s no doubt Weaver is one of the best pitchers in the game, but as long as Masterson’s struggles continue and is touched up just a bit, which is what we are banking on, we only need the Indians’ solid hitters to scratch across a couple of runs or so. I do not think Weaver will have a bad start at all, but if I’m envisioning a 7-1/7-2 type ofgame, let’s just hope Cleveland plates at least a couple and pushes us over for the game.


New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies
Chris Schwinden vs Drew Pomeranz
OVER [Wait forLine to Drop to 9; Will Still Take If 9.5, but Wait till Last Minute]

I might be the only person in the country that had a huge reaction when I saw Chris Schwinden’s name listed for this certain pitching matchup. While most people may not have heard of the Mets rookie, this guy’s name was immediately imprinted in my mind when he came up at the end of last year through his four starts, in which he earned the label of being an overs machine. I didn’t even need to look it up to confirm; all four Schwinden starts last year resulted in overs (Two of which I bet on), and I expect the same tonight, as does Vegas apparently, judging by the line, which is a half-run higher than it should be. Schwinden’s overall numbers weren’t bad in his first big-league go-around (0-2,4.71 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 17 Ks in 21 IP), but from watching him a couple of times last season, he’s a hittable pitcher that doesn’t really have special stuff. At Coors Field, the Rockies should be able to take advantage of him.

Speaking of hittable pitchers, I believe Drew Pomeranz, at least at this early point inhis Major League career, fits the bill for that as well. Pomeranz actually showed progress in one of my best bets over the weekend against Milwaukee (The over, which hit), limiting the Brew Crew to two runs and two hits over five innings, while walking three and striking out six. Pomeranz had always been tagged as a pretty good prospect so hopefully his last start isn’t a sign of things to come, or at least for tonight. Being in an extreme hitter’s park like Coors Field, I sense both offenses will ultimately prevail, albeit not in a huge bet.


Other 4/27 Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Blake Beaven vs Ricky Romero UNDER 8 (Completely forced, as the vibe wasn’t there, but Beaven is my No. 1 sleeper and I love him, while Romero is just usually excellent at home)
Yovani Gallardo vs Jake Westbrook OVER 7 (Line is currently 7.5 so just wait for it to go to 7 and put a small bet there)
 
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Some of my early dollar amounts...

Maholm vs Halladay UNDER 7 - $166 for $125
Burnett vs Hanson UNDER 7 - $66 for $60
Rodriguez vs Leake OVER 8 - $47 for $46
Beaven vs Romero UNDER 8 - $18 for $15
 
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Apr 6, 2012
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Rest of amounts, just smaller bets...

Schwinden vs Pomeranz OVER 9.5 - $15 for $15
Gallardo vs Westbrook OVER 7.5 - $15 for $16
 

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