Yesterday 1 1 0 0.00 Units
Last 30 Days 20 31 0 -19.46 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 20 31 0 -19.46 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
Seattle +162 over TORONTO
The Blue Jays have dropped four and have hit .211 over that span while being outscored 19-8. Brandon Morrow has never lived up to expectations. He has outstanding stuff but his focus and mental toughness remains in question. Morrow is easily rattled and he’s been horrible at home for two years running. Known as a strikeout pitcher, Morrow has just 12 strikeouts this season in 27 frames. The Jays are 0-2 in his two home starts against Baltimore and Tampa Bay in which he’s surrendered 14 hits, five jacks and 10 runs in 13 innings. In those 13 home frames, he’s walked four and struck out six. Morrow has an ERA of 3.71 and that’s a result of an unsustainable 83% strand rate. This is a fragile pitcher throwing for a fragile team. Meanwhile, the Mariners have won four straight including a three-game sweep in Detroit. They rallied from two down in the ninth last night to tie it and scored four in the 10th to put it away. The M’s have scored 30 runs during this current streak. Kevin Millwood has a 7.04 ERA. He’s way past his prime but Millwood's 4.17 xERA says that he hasn't been nearly as bad as his 7.04 ERA over 15 IP suggests. The price and current form dictates the play and it’s not in the Jays favor. Play: Seattle +162 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +106 over CHICAGO
The Red Sox are seeing beach balls right now. They’re coming off back-to-back 10 run outbursts at U.S. Cellular Field and have belted 11 bombs over their past five games while batting .363. The reason Boston is being offered a tag here is because Jon Lester’s ERA is 6.00 while Jake Peavy’s ERA is 1.88. There are corrections forthcoming in both of those ERA’s and chances are great that the corrections begin here. Lester is still among the elite pitchers in the game. His high ERA is the result of one horrendous outing in Texas in which he allowed eight runs in two innings. In his first two starts of the year in Detroit and Toronto, he allowed just nine hits in 15 innings. Lester entered 2012 having compiled four consecutive seasons of sub-3.50 ERA with skills that support the performance. He’s still one of the premier pitchers in the league and one bad outing doesn’t change that. Jake Peavy has been lights out with four walks and 26 K’s in 29 frames. He’s 3-0, the South Side is 4-0 in his starts and he has a BAA of .172. Great numbers indeed but also unsustainable one's and that allows us to step in and take back a tag with the hottest offense in the game with one of the best lefties in the game. Play: Boston +106 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +106 over N.Y. YANKEES
If Freddy Garcia were pitching for any other team other than the Yankees, there is no chance he would be favored over the Tigers here. Garcia has a pair of brutal starts in three tries this year and faces a dangerous and surging Detroit team that owns a .935 OPS in their last seven games. Had Michael Pineda not been injured, Garcia would be out of a job and still might be once Andy Pettitte joins the club. Garcia has allowed 20 hits in 12.2 innings for a BAA of .385. He's lost velocity each of the past three years, the quality starts are dwindling and line-drive % is creeping up. Those are signs that this is a guy to avoid when laying a price. Drew Smyly is a name that a lot of folks are going to know how to spell real soon. Smyly was a second round pick in the '10 draft and earned Detroit's Minor League Pitcher of the Year award in his first pro season in '11. In two starts and one early relief appearance, he’s struck out 15 batters in 16 frames with a strong 51% groundball rate. It’s no fluke either. Smyly has a good repertoire and mixes speeds like a veteran. His fastball velocity is fine for a lefty at 87-93 mph and it shows excellent movement. The Yanks have never seen this promising rookie and that too should work in our favor. Garcia favored here is a marketplace misconception. Play: Detroit +106 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 20 31 0 -19.46 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 20 31 0 -19.46 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
Seattle +162 over TORONTO
The Blue Jays have dropped four and have hit .211 over that span while being outscored 19-8. Brandon Morrow has never lived up to expectations. He has outstanding stuff but his focus and mental toughness remains in question. Morrow is easily rattled and he’s been horrible at home for two years running. Known as a strikeout pitcher, Morrow has just 12 strikeouts this season in 27 frames. The Jays are 0-2 in his two home starts against Baltimore and Tampa Bay in which he’s surrendered 14 hits, five jacks and 10 runs in 13 innings. In those 13 home frames, he’s walked four and struck out six. Morrow has an ERA of 3.71 and that’s a result of an unsustainable 83% strand rate. This is a fragile pitcher throwing for a fragile team. Meanwhile, the Mariners have won four straight including a three-game sweep in Detroit. They rallied from two down in the ninth last night to tie it and scored four in the 10th to put it away. The M’s have scored 30 runs during this current streak. Kevin Millwood has a 7.04 ERA. He’s way past his prime but Millwood's 4.17 xERA says that he hasn't been nearly as bad as his 7.04 ERA over 15 IP suggests. The price and current form dictates the play and it’s not in the Jays favor. Play: Seattle +162 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +106 over CHICAGO
The Red Sox are seeing beach balls right now. They’re coming off back-to-back 10 run outbursts at U.S. Cellular Field and have belted 11 bombs over their past five games while batting .363. The reason Boston is being offered a tag here is because Jon Lester’s ERA is 6.00 while Jake Peavy’s ERA is 1.88. There are corrections forthcoming in both of those ERA’s and chances are great that the corrections begin here. Lester is still among the elite pitchers in the game. His high ERA is the result of one horrendous outing in Texas in which he allowed eight runs in two innings. In his first two starts of the year in Detroit and Toronto, he allowed just nine hits in 15 innings. Lester entered 2012 having compiled four consecutive seasons of sub-3.50 ERA with skills that support the performance. He’s still one of the premier pitchers in the league and one bad outing doesn’t change that. Jake Peavy has been lights out with four walks and 26 K’s in 29 frames. He’s 3-0, the South Side is 4-0 in his starts and he has a BAA of .172. Great numbers indeed but also unsustainable one's and that allows us to step in and take back a tag with the hottest offense in the game with one of the best lefties in the game. Play: Boston +106 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +106 over N.Y. YANKEES
If Freddy Garcia were pitching for any other team other than the Yankees, there is no chance he would be favored over the Tigers here. Garcia has a pair of brutal starts in three tries this year and faces a dangerous and surging Detroit team that owns a .935 OPS in their last seven games. Had Michael Pineda not been injured, Garcia would be out of a job and still might be once Andy Pettitte joins the club. Garcia has allowed 20 hits in 12.2 innings for a BAA of .385. He's lost velocity each of the past three years, the quality starts are dwindling and line-drive % is creeping up. Those are signs that this is a guy to avoid when laying a price. Drew Smyly is a name that a lot of folks are going to know how to spell real soon. Smyly was a second round pick in the '10 draft and earned Detroit's Minor League Pitcher of the Year award in his first pro season in '11. In two starts and one early relief appearance, he’s struck out 15 batters in 16 frames with a strong 51% groundball rate. It’s no fluke either. Smyly has a good repertoire and mixes speeds like a veteran. His fastball velocity is fine for a lefty at 87-93 mph and it shows excellent movement. The Yanks have never seen this promising rookie and that too should work in our favor. Garcia favored here is a marketplace misconception. Play: Detroit +106 (Risking 2 units).
