Haven't posted any plays in a while. The last one I posted was my only 5 unit play of the year, an under that lost by means of a bottom 9th 2-out error.. GRRRRR!! Still gauging the new season's trends (or lack there of). I have two plays in the early day, but I may add on later:
Mariners/Blue Jays - over 8.5 (3 Units)
Vargas hasn't been bad thus far in the season. With an ERA in the mid 3's, he's getting run support for the first time in Seattle. However, he might run into a bit of a jam today. In his career against the Jays he is 0-2 with a 7.52 ERA. He's also given up 4 runs in both of his last two road starts. Alvarez is a bit tougher to cap in this match-up, but in his only start against Seattle he gave up 4 ER in 5 IP. 2 of his 3 home starts have gone over as well.
Cubs/Phillies - under 7 (3 Units)
If you bet this game based on nothing but the ERA of the pitchers, the over would be a sure play. That's not what I'm doing here. Kendrick got absolutely hammered in his only start of the season in Arizona. His stuff was flat and it was taken full advantage of by the D-Backs. However, this was a short-notice spot start in place of Cliff Lee. I expect, with a full scouting report and five days preparation, we'll see much better stuff out of him here. The cubs lineup hasn't seen much of Kendrick. 4 scoreless innings out of the bullpen is the result. Garza on the other-hand has seen his share of the Phillies, and he has dominated. Posting a 1.19 ERA in 21 IP. Hunter Pence has touched him up with 4 hits in 10 at-bats, but the rest of the lineup posts a .165 BA against the righty. All of this combined with 12 mph winds blowing in and to the right, I think, makes for a nice low scoring game.
May have more later. Best of luck!
Mariners/Blue Jays - over 8.5 (3 Units)
Vargas hasn't been bad thus far in the season. With an ERA in the mid 3's, he's getting run support for the first time in Seattle. However, he might run into a bit of a jam today. In his career against the Jays he is 0-2 with a 7.52 ERA. He's also given up 4 runs in both of his last two road starts. Alvarez is a bit tougher to cap in this match-up, but in his only start against Seattle he gave up 4 ER in 5 IP. 2 of his 3 home starts have gone over as well.
Cubs/Phillies - under 7 (3 Units)
If you bet this game based on nothing but the ERA of the pitchers, the over would be a sure play. That's not what I'm doing here. Kendrick got absolutely hammered in his only start of the season in Arizona. His stuff was flat and it was taken full advantage of by the D-Backs. However, this was a short-notice spot start in place of Cliff Lee. I expect, with a full scouting report and five days preparation, we'll see much better stuff out of him here. The cubs lineup hasn't seen much of Kendrick. 4 scoreless innings out of the bullpen is the result. Garza on the other-hand has seen his share of the Phillies, and he has dominated. Posting a 1.19 ERA in 21 IP. Hunter Pence has touched him up with 4 hits in 10 at-bats, but the rest of the lineup posts a .165 BA against the righty. All of this combined with 12 mph winds blowing in and to the right, I think, makes for a nice low scoring game.
May have more later. Best of luck!
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