Yesterday 0 1 0 -2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 22 33 0 -19.22 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 22 33 0 -19.22 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
Arizona +150 over MIAMI
The Marlins are a mess right now. They’re batting a combined .226 and just .186 over their past five. They’ve lost two of three to the Diamondbacks and overall have lost eight of past nine. Arizona has scored 15 times in the three games here so far and there is little reason not to expect that many or more against Mark Buehrle. Buehrle has pitched more innings than any other pitcher in the majors over the past 10 years. He has some value but he’s also outpitched his skills for years and this season is no different with an xERA that is almost 1½ runs higher than his actual ERA. He has an unsustainable 81% strand rate. Buehrle has shown an uncanny ability to avoid disaster starts or innings and certainly deserves credit for what he’s done. However, as a big favorite, pitching for a reeling Marlins team that is seeing BB’s, he’s far too big a risk. Miami doesn’t get a break here either when facing one of Arizona’s hottest prospects in lefthander, Patrick Corbin. Corbin was very impressive in the spring with a 0.57 ERA over his first five appearances. He’s made four starts with Double-A Mobile this year and is 2-0 with a nifty 1.67 ERA. He has also fanned 25 batters in 27 innings. Corbin has some risk too because he’s never pitched above Double-A but at age 22 and with a taste of facing major-league hitters in the spring, he could certainly be ready to take the next step and at this price the risk is worth the reward. Play: Arizona +150 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +155 over N.Y. YANKEES
Jason Hammel has resurrected his career this season with a 1.73 ERA and 1.00 WHIP after four starts. While his ERA is sure to rise, he is no fluke. His skills are elite with a 62% groundball rate, 26 K’s in 25 IP and a BAA of .194. His rise started in spring training when he came to camp with more velocity and a sinking fastball, which caused Chipper Jones to say he was the most impressive pitcher he faced all spring. He’s already throwing harder (93.5 mph average fastball velocity) than he has at any time during his career. Leaving Colorado has worked out well and with improved raw stuff and an elite groundball tilt, there is plenty to like here. The Yankees have lost three of Hiroki Kuroda’s four starts. His only win this season came against an Angels’ team that is batting .166 this past week. Kuroda is 37-years-old and had the luxury of pitching at Chavez Ravine in Los Angeles for four years. Kuroda’s 4.38 ERA this season is right in line with his average skill set and once again we get some excellent value betting against the overpriced Yankees. Play: Baltimore +155 (Risking 2 units).
Seattle +117 over TAMPA BAY
All Felix Hernandez has been doing for years is taking the ball every fifth day and dominating the game. His chances of improving are nil because you can’t improve perfection. Hernandez' remarkable consistency and elite skills make him one of the most appealing investments in the business and any time we can take back a tag on him you can pencil us in. In this spot, against Jeremy Hellickson, we can’t click our wager fast enough. Hellickson is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA and that is this year’s most misleading W/L record and ERA. In spite of skills last year indicating his results were outpacing his ability, Hellickson continued to escape disaster. Four starts into 2012, Hellickson is at it again. In 25 innings, he’s walked 12 and struck out 14. His xERA is 4.75 and that’s due to too many walks and an 86% strand rate. Hellickson continues to put up goose eggs while pitching on the edge of disaster every start. He simply cannot continue to win games and post ERA’s that are more than two runs lower than his xERA. Hellickson favored over Felix Hernandez is a bet that should never be made. Get on this one early. Play: Seattle +117 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 22 33 0 -19.22 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 22 33 0 -19.22 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
Arizona +150 over MIAMI
The Marlins are a mess right now. They’re batting a combined .226 and just .186 over their past five. They’ve lost two of three to the Diamondbacks and overall have lost eight of past nine. Arizona has scored 15 times in the three games here so far and there is little reason not to expect that many or more against Mark Buehrle. Buehrle has pitched more innings than any other pitcher in the majors over the past 10 years. He has some value but he’s also outpitched his skills for years and this season is no different with an xERA that is almost 1½ runs higher than his actual ERA. He has an unsustainable 81% strand rate. Buehrle has shown an uncanny ability to avoid disaster starts or innings and certainly deserves credit for what he’s done. However, as a big favorite, pitching for a reeling Marlins team that is seeing BB’s, he’s far too big a risk. Miami doesn’t get a break here either when facing one of Arizona’s hottest prospects in lefthander, Patrick Corbin. Corbin was very impressive in the spring with a 0.57 ERA over his first five appearances. He’s made four starts with Double-A Mobile this year and is 2-0 with a nifty 1.67 ERA. He has also fanned 25 batters in 27 innings. Corbin has some risk too because he’s never pitched above Double-A but at age 22 and with a taste of facing major-league hitters in the spring, he could certainly be ready to take the next step and at this price the risk is worth the reward. Play: Arizona +150 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +155 over N.Y. YANKEES
Jason Hammel has resurrected his career this season with a 1.73 ERA and 1.00 WHIP after four starts. While his ERA is sure to rise, he is no fluke. His skills are elite with a 62% groundball rate, 26 K’s in 25 IP and a BAA of .194. His rise started in spring training when he came to camp with more velocity and a sinking fastball, which caused Chipper Jones to say he was the most impressive pitcher he faced all spring. He’s already throwing harder (93.5 mph average fastball velocity) than he has at any time during his career. Leaving Colorado has worked out well and with improved raw stuff and an elite groundball tilt, there is plenty to like here. The Yankees have lost three of Hiroki Kuroda’s four starts. His only win this season came against an Angels’ team that is batting .166 this past week. Kuroda is 37-years-old and had the luxury of pitching at Chavez Ravine in Los Angeles for four years. Kuroda’s 4.38 ERA this season is right in line with his average skill set and once again we get some excellent value betting against the overpriced Yankees. Play: Baltimore +155 (Risking 2 units).
Seattle +117 over TAMPA BAY
All Felix Hernandez has been doing for years is taking the ball every fifth day and dominating the game. His chances of improving are nil because you can’t improve perfection. Hernandez' remarkable consistency and elite skills make him one of the most appealing investments in the business and any time we can take back a tag on him you can pencil us in. In this spot, against Jeremy Hellickson, we can’t click our wager fast enough. Hellickson is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA and that is this year’s most misleading W/L record and ERA. In spite of skills last year indicating his results were outpacing his ability, Hellickson continued to escape disaster. Four starts into 2012, Hellickson is at it again. In 25 innings, he’s walked 12 and struck out 14. His xERA is 4.75 and that’s due to too many walks and an 86% strand rate. Hellickson continues to put up goose eggs while pitching on the edge of disaster every start. He simply cannot continue to win games and post ERA’s that are more than two runs lower than his xERA. Hellickson favored over Felix Hernandez is a bet that should never be made. Get on this one early. Play: Seattle +117 (Risking 2 units).
