The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - April 30, 2012 - YTD: 68-63-4 (66-56-4 since starting 2-7 bc of rust)... 2,500+ Words of Top-Notch

Search
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
2012 MLB O/U Record: 68-63-4,-$216 (66-56-4 since starting the season 2-7 because of rust)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42,+$1,104 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)

Up yesterday, despite the overall 2-3 performance, in winning two out of my top three best bets. Really could have been 3-2 or 4-1, as I was 100% right on the Johan Santana vs Jamie Moyer matchup, but the Mets bullpen screwed it up…twice! It was 4-0 in the bottom of the 8th with two outs when Jon Rauch served up a pinch-hit grand slam to Todd Helton. Then in the bottom ofthe 11th, with the Mets up 5-4 and the under still in good shape, Frank Francisco blows the save, and of course, the under. Once again, another bad break going against The Cat, which is why my record and +/- are incredibly misleading at the moment, as obviously, at least for regular readers of my articles, you know my anticipation for starting pitching matchups has been correct much, much, much more than “52 percent” of the time (Well, really 54 percent since my 2-7 start, but that’s still unacceptable to me), which is scarily my overall winning percentage at this point.

Furthermore, when most of your losses are by a half run or full run, that’s not being wrong. Both sides of an over/under can absolutely be right on any given game if you lose by a half or full run, and I’ve had plenty of tough luck close losses. But you can’t let the bad breaks get to you; when you know you’re one of the elite ones out there, you just keep chugging along and you know in the end, your true winning percentage will prevail without question. Two more reasons not to panic is that A)I got out to a rough start because of rust and just coming off a 103-degree fever right before Opening Day, so that messed up my preparation heading into the season, and B)In my remarkable 2011 season, I had an off month (54-54-1 last July), so if this is my only “off” month of the season, that’s perfectly fine. As I proved last year, and I’m sure countless others have proved also, you can have a month where you hover just a bit over .500, and still have a very successful season. If I have another “off” month in May? Then it’s time to start thinking. But I doubt that will happen, as I feel like I’ve been in mid-season form the past few weeks, when I have been hitting at about my expected 57-percent clip, so expect that to continue.

Remember, if you continue to trust me, I will continue to reward you. You can’t do much better than tailing a guy who is more determined and passionate than anybodyout there when it comes to baseball over/unders, and a guy who is 100% confident he will eventually reach the success level he had last year. It’s a promise. I work hours at this stuff literally every single day, and it’s a proven routine that is getting results again. Now let’s move on to today, my favorite day of the week for over/unders, MONDAY! 68-35-6 on Mondays last year, 12-6 so far this year - this is a weird trend I picked up on a couple of years ago, which is why I started doing stat breakdowns of my record for each day of the week, and the stats confirmed what I had always thought… I just see Mondays best for some reason, and the same definitely holds true for today. Lots of good stuff on tonight’s slate.


**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**


New York Mets @ Houston Astros (Best Bet)
RA Dickey vs Bud Norris
UNDER 8

When I first saw this pitching matchup, I was afraid the line would be 7 or 7.5, as both guys have very good track records in the recent past, especially against their opposing hitters for tonight (Dickey’s off start versus Houston last year was because of guys currently not with the team. Remember that like it was yesterday off the top of my head, him vs JA Happ on a Saturday), and Vegas usually takes that into consideration. However, they decided to side with each pitcher’s current situations as far as 2012 is concerned, with both guys surprisingly riding an ERA of around 4.50 or higher. RA Dickey comes into this bout with the most momentum, as he dominated a pretty good Marlins lineup in his last start, holding them to three hits and one run over seven innings,while impressively striking out seven. There’s always that one big variable to deal with when betting on a Dickey over/under, and that’s the fact that he’s theo nly knuckleballer left in the bigs that currently starts, so it’s sometimes hard to predict how an opposing lineup will perform against it. The Astros are one of the youngest teams in baseball, and it’ll be even younger tonight without Carlos Lee, who is still out with a minor injury, which is good for us as he’s had success against Dickey and the knuckleball (Pains me to say that, as El Caballo is actually my favorite player). While I don’t want to underrate the Astros lineup, since it’s been me as much as anyone in the country who has detailed how underrated their offense actually is (I said JD Martinez would be a star after last year. Jose Altuve is top five hitting with runners in scoring position. Chris Johnson also doing nice work), but I believe Dickey will have his knuckler working, thus minimizing the Houston offense.

In the past, I have mentioned how a bettor’s love and affection for a certain pitcher sometimes clouds their better judgment on a game and makes them biased towards said pitcher, but in this case with Bud Norris, obviously one of my top five favorite pitchers, I still feel I was able to get a good vision on theunder here. Working for us in our favor is the Law of Averages, as I assure you that Norris is NOT EVEN CLOSE to being as bad as his current 5.84 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Bias aside, when Bud Norris is on his game, he can be as dominant as any pitcher in the league - Justin Verlander included. I’ve studied this guy closely and watched numerous starts of his ever since his very first one in 2009 with that beeeautiful performance in St. Louis, and it was back then that I proclaimed this guy as a future all-star. Yes, his 2012 numbers do not look pretty at the moment (Although at least he has still maintained his high strikeout numbers), but again, this guy is a potential ace on any team. He struggled in his last start in Milwaukee, which happens, but he’s back in the cozy confines of Minute Maid Park for the first time since his first start of the season (When he shut down the Rockies for 7 four-hit innings with 8 Ks),where he’s always been at his finest. In fact, his career ERA is almost a whole run lower at home. The bottom line is that Norris is so talented that it’s inevitable he’ll get back on track, and I believe that begins tonight against an unspectacular Mets offense.


Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays
Felix Hernandez vs Jeremy Hellickson
UNDER 7

This looks like a delightful pitching matchup that, to me at least, has “under” or “3-1” written all over it. I mean, you have Felix Hernandez, a proven ace who has legitimately established himself as one of the top ten pitchers in the game today, if not higher. He’s having yet another great season, which is becoming the norm for him, as he’s 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 33 strikeouts in36 innings. His numbers would stand out even more if he didn’t give up six runs in one start against Oakland a few weeks ago. King Felix enjoyed much success versus the Rays in 2011 (15 IP, 12 hits, 4 runs, 5 walks, 20 Ks, 0 homers allowed), and since they have a very similar lineup to last season, I expect himto keep it going.

Jeremy Hellickson, last year’s Rookie of the Year, has also been tremendous, if not better than his counterpart on this Monday evening. Hell-Boy has picked up where he left off from a year ago, in posting a 3-0 record with a 2.84 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. That last number is a little concerning, as usually that means his ERA is bound to rise at some point, but for now, I like what I see from him. There’s certainly no issues of a sophomore slump, whether it be mentally or physically, as he’s just a young guy in a real groove right now that should beable to continue that and have some success against a not-so-intimidating Seattle offense. Oh, and Hellickson threw 15 innings of one-run ball against the Mariners over two starts last year. Let’s hope both of these guys just even come close to mirroring their 2011 performances against their opponent for tonight.


Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Nick Blackburn vs CJ Wilson
OVER [Wait Up Till Gametime for Line to Drop to 7; Will Still Take at 7.5]

Is this déjà vu? A few Mondays ago, I bit on the over of this same exact pitching matchup, except that was an afternoon game with the extra variable of being the 2012 Minnesota Twins home opener, not to mention the variable of being nationally broadcasted on MLB Network. Flash forward a few weeks later and it’s Nick Blackburn and CJ Wilson meeting on the mound once again, but in a much different environment. I can’t say enough good things about Wilson, who is actually looking like the Angels’ best free agent acquisition thus far. That’salso saying something coming from a diehard Rangers fan, as even after Wilson pulled a traitor-esque move by signing with our biggest rival, I still root for him. Why? His ascension into becoming one of the top Major League starters is truly fascinating, as it’s still hard to believe he’s come this far after failing in his first brief stint in a starting role in 2005, not to mention doing mostly horrible work out of the bullpen in the years after. When he got his first full opportunity to be a starter in 2009, he took the ball and ran with it, which he is still doing towards, dare I say it, superstardom. Pairing him with fellow southpaw Cliff Lee, albeit for half a year, not only did wonders for the organization, but for Wilson, in helping transform him into the legit upper-rotation pitcher that he is. He’s been remarkable in his first few Angelsstarts (2-2, 2.42 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), and I find it interesting the line hasn’t sunk down to 7 yet, considering Wilson dominated this same weak Twins offense in his first start of the year (7 IP, 1 run, 3 hits), so they must feel the Minnesota offense has improved recently and will fare better this time around, which is the same feeling I have.

Or, the line could be where it is because of the atrocious veteran Nick Blackburn,who somehow still has a job in a Major League rotation. This is a guy that has consistently struggled for years, other than a patch or two of success sprinkled amongst mostly ugly outings, and in three starts this year, he’s given up five runs in two of them. Uh, that’s not good. Blackburn is generally worse in the beginning of the year (4.98 career ERA in April), and the stat I like the most is one that seemingly never goes away, that being his opposing batting average of .323. In fact, EVERY YEAR he’s been a Major League starter,and he’s somehow been one since his first full year in 2008, his opposing batting average has been at least .290, including a swell .305 mark last year. His WHIP is once again ridiculous, sitting at 1.67 (It was 1.60 last year), so against a dangerous offense like the Angels, if you continually put runners on base, especially with an extremely overdue Albert Pujols lurking, you just have no chance. This has to be an over, as I can’t see any possible way Blackburn survives tonight. I’d bet he’s going to be out of the rotation soon enough.


Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
Randy Wolf vs Joe Wieland
UNDER [Wait Up Till Gametime for Line to Raise to 7; Will Still Take at 6.5]

Ironyof all ironies. This insanely bizarre story of Joe Wieland has caught my eye from the very beginning, and I just still can’t even begin to understand it. Let me explain if you’re unfamiliar with this kid: He made his debut only a few weeks ago, with no fanfare of course, as he pitches for the Padres and is no high-end prospect whatsoever. But since debuting, the lines for his games have either been 6.5 or 7. Here’s the best part - he’s not even close to being as good as those lines indicate. Yes, two of his three starts thus far have been quality ones, but there’s NO reason at all why Vegas is showing him so much respect. I mean, he has faced pretty good pitchers like Jordan Zimmermann that would command a low line, but the fact of him being in there as well means the line shouldn’t be so low to begin with. For comparison purposes, why did last week’s late-night matchup of Gio Gonzalez vs Clayton Richard in Petco Park feature an over/under of 7, whereas this matchup of CLEARLY WEAKER PITCHERS in the same scenario get the 6.5 treatment? I just don’t get it. Gio Gonzalez is 20 times better than Randy Wolf, and Clayton Richard is much higher on the food chain than Joe Wieland. I just don’t get it, meaning Vegas OBVIOUSLY senses an under here, otherwise they would not have made a matchup of two guys with a combined 11 ERA so extremely low.

And that brings me to maybe the biggest factor in this specific matchup - the veteran left-hander Randy Wolf. Here we have a guy that has usually been pretty good throughout his career, but is out to a tough start in 2012, as evident in his7.17 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. Obviously, he’s not that bad, so an advantage of early-season over/under betting is being able to pinpoint when a guy inevitably begins to turn it around, and what better chance to do that than against one of the weakest National League offenses in a well-renowned pitcher’s park? Wolf showed some signs in his last start of coming out of his slump when he handled the Astros over six innings and yielding only four hits and two runs, so perhaps that was just the start of him returning to form. Sometimes, your true best bets are the ones you least expect to visualize, and this game is a perfect example. Haven’t had an under vibe on either pitcher all year until this one, and that’s significant.

And again, I have to repeat: This is a game with two pitchers who have a combined ERA over 11. I’ve studied this stuff every day for the past few years and I do not recall an instance where the starting pitchers had a combined ERA that high and over/under of less than 7. It’s never happened. Period. Therefore, Vegas obviously anticipates the under as well, and it’s always a nice extra when you factually have them on your side with your opinion.


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
 

Member
Joined
Oct 25, 2007
Messages
47,387
Tokens
Are the ones with a WRITEUP all BEST BETS? Or only when you say BEST BET?

Please try to post amounts ($$$) early. Thanks.
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Are the ones with a WRITEUP all BEST BETS? Or only when you say BEST BET?

Please try to post amounts ($$$) early. Thanks.

Lol you should be familiar with my system by now. The one I write "Best Bet" next to is my best bet for the night, period. When I do a write-up for a game, though, it means I'm putting a solid amount on that game, so I'll be betting a lot on each game, with my most being on my best bet, that being Dickey vs Norris under 8.

I'll try to post the dollar amounts as soon as possible, and I will probably post it for the first two games real early, but it looks like I'm going to have to wait till around gametime (10 PM EST) for the latter two games to change their line, which is absolutely ridiculous that they haven't changed it already. Can't stress it enough - Wolf vs Wieland tonight will own the Las Vegas record for two pitchers with highest combined ERA in an over/under of 6.5 or less... that HAS to go to 7. It just has to.

You're lucky you can buy runs on your site, varkeyboy. But again, all bets will be big tonight.
 

Member
Joined
Oct 25, 2007
Messages
47,387
Tokens
I think you can start leaving off the "2-7 start because of rust." I think everyone who follows along gets the point.
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
I think you can start leaving off the "2-7 start because of rust." I think everyone who follows along gets the point.

Haha that's true but I just want to make that clear to first-time readers and/or people who are just getting to know me, as I'm sure there's at least a few first-time readers in my threads every day. I am just so disgusted and embarrassed by my overall record and want to make sure everyone knows that's not me. I'm so passionate about this stuff that it actually bothers me thinking about it every day, but at the same time, it's only a month, and I know I'll be way past that very soon. No worries at all. Plus, I feel very, very good about tonight
 

Member
Joined
Oct 25, 2007
Messages
47,387
Tokens
Haha that's true but I just want to make that clear to first-time readers and/or people who are just getting to know me, as I'm sure there's at least a few first-time readers in my threads every day. I am just so disgusted and embarrassed by my overall record and want to make sure everyone knows that's not me. I'm so passionate about this stuff that it actually bothers me thinking about it every day, but at the same time, it's only a month, and I know I'll be way past that very soon. No worries at all. Plus, I feel very, very good about tonight

OK, sounds good to me. Hope the "good feeling" turns into a sweep tonight.
 

Member
Joined
Oct 25, 2007
Messages
47,387
Tokens
Who are your Top 5 favorite pitchers? Seems like you say this about every other pitcher, LOL =) Just giving you shit, haha.

So El Caballo is your favorite player, huh?? I missed him as soon as he left the White Sox....
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Dollar amounts for my early games...

RA Dickey vs Bud Norris UNDER 8 - $143 for $130
Felix Hernandez vs Jeremy Hellickson UNDER 7 - $90 for $75

As I said, big bets tonight, gotta capitalize on my proven Monday Night dominance. My last two big bets will be around the same amount, still waiting for those lines to change in my 10 o'clock contests!
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Who are your Top 5 favorite pitchers? Seems like you say this about every other pitcher, LOL =) Just giving you shit, haha.

So El Caballo is your favorite player, huh?? I missed him as soon as he left the White Sox....

My Top 4 is Bud Norris, JA Happ, James McDonald, and Blake Beaven. The fifth spot I leave empty because it sometimes changes lol but that's usually my core four right there. My fifth spot can go to guys like Liam Hendriks, Jesse Litsch, Lance Lynn, Anthony Swarzak, Paul Maholm, Jeff Karstens, Graham Godfrey, Danny Duffy, Brad Hand (Stilll waiting for his 2012 debut!), Duane Below, Luke Hochevar, Jeanmar Gomez, and Casey Coleman.

Yes, I know a very random group, but that's how my mind works. I focus more on the lesser known pitchers and gain a weird attraction towards them, which also helps me to be successful. Those are definitely all "Cat Guys" though
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Dominant night so far, as I always expect on Mondays. I'm telling you, it's a very bizarre trend I picked up on years ago but the stats don't lie - 68-35-6 on Mondays last year, 12-6 so far this year, not including the two inevitable wins in my first two games of the evening. Here's the final dollar amounts for my last two games tonight...


Wolf vs Wieland UNDER 6.5 - $48 for $40 (It's complete BULLSHIT that Vegas never raised the line to 7. Makes absolutely no sense. Two guys with a combined 11+ ERA? Fucking Vegas, you're supposed to make the line for that scenario at least at 7 in San Diego. Oh well, hopefully we don't lose by a half-run)

Blackburn vs Wilson OVER 7.5 - $58 for $50 (More BS. Wilson owned the Twins earlier this year, and they don't even have Joe Mauer tonight! Line SHOULD be 7, but I guess Vegas despises Blackburn as much as I do)
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Wow those first two games got a littleee too close for comfort. Shouldn't have even been that close, but the important thing is we picked up both best bet victories. Hopefully we can scratch out the two late games, but at least no matter what happens there, we'll be up at least $100 for the day.

And like I said, Hernandez vs Hellickson "had 3-1 written all over it." Final score? 3-2. Any one know any sites where you can bet on the exact score of baseball games? I'm on target a lot of the time and a goldmine could be made off those, if they exist.
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
I wonder what the linesmakers are thinking now after Brewers/Padres went over with ease. "Hmm, uhh, about this Joe Wieland character. I think we need to stop making his over/unders at 6.5 no matter who the opposing pitcher is." Well, at the very least, they fooled some people like me who thought they were purposely trying to sucker people into the over tonight. Oh well, smallest bet of the night.

Another nice successful Monday, hope a lot of you were on board as well. I'll be back tomorrow with my picks from the Tuesday slate, and more importantly, the first day of May - arguably my favorite month of the year.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,815
Messages
13,439,085
Members
99,339
Latest member
billcunninghamhomeloans
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com