Yesterday 1 2 0 -1.00 Units
Last 30 Days 23 35 0 -20.22 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 23 35 0 -20.22 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
N.Y. Mets -129 over HOUSTON
J.A. Happ has spent the past two seasons fighting off injury and poor performances in hopes of regaining the effectiveness of 2009, when as a rookie he was a part of the Phillies’ World Series run. But a rising flyball % creates a rising hr/fly rate which creates a rising ERA. It's that simple. Happ has already been tagged for four jacks in 23 innings over four starts. His poor control has not shown up in the walk department yet with just nine in 24 innings but he’s throwing a lot of pitches (103 in his last game in 5 innings), which suggests he’s throwing a lot of balls and deep into counts. Happ is a fourth or fifth starter and will face the Mets quiet ace, Jonathan Niese. Niese is improving each year and with each start. A high groundball rate (51%) combined with a high strikeout rate combined with a low walk total is all the ingredients for success. Niese is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA and he’s likely to stay around that mark all season. Also note that the Astros are 1-4 against southpaws and that’s unlikely to improve against this tough lefty. Play: N.Y. Mets -129 (Risking 2 units to win 1.55).
Arizona +130 over WASHINGTON
The Diamondbacks have picked it up lately with three wins in their past four after a rough start to the year. The slow start can largely be blamed on their bullpen, a unit that couldn’t record outs for the first 15 games and compiled an ERA near 8. However, the Snakes have played 16 of their 22 games at extreme hitter’s parks (13 at home and three at Coors) so don’t put too much weight into it. Trevor Cahill’s surface stats suggest he’s struggling but his skills say otherwise. It begins with an outstanding 59% groundball rate. In his two road starts at Colorado and San Diego, Cahill went a combined 13.1 innings and allowed six hits and two runs. His xERA trend has been decreasing for three years running. His skills strongly suggest to stick with him. Jordan Zimmerman is another solid starter in the Nationals’ rotation. Zimmermann's now sitting on a 1.33 ERA and 0.70 WHIP through four starts, unsustainable numbers for sure but representative of the massive talent in that right arm of his. The problem is run support from a Nationals team that has dropped four in a row and is batting .180 over that span. When a team is struggling at the plate, they are too risky to be spotting a tag against a hot team and that’s precisely the case here. Play: Arizona +130 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 23 35 0 -20.22 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 23 35 0 -20.22 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
N.Y. Mets -129 over HOUSTON
J.A. Happ has spent the past two seasons fighting off injury and poor performances in hopes of regaining the effectiveness of 2009, when as a rookie he was a part of the Phillies’ World Series run. But a rising flyball % creates a rising hr/fly rate which creates a rising ERA. It's that simple. Happ has already been tagged for four jacks in 23 innings over four starts. His poor control has not shown up in the walk department yet with just nine in 24 innings but he’s throwing a lot of pitches (103 in his last game in 5 innings), which suggests he’s throwing a lot of balls and deep into counts. Happ is a fourth or fifth starter and will face the Mets quiet ace, Jonathan Niese. Niese is improving each year and with each start. A high groundball rate (51%) combined with a high strikeout rate combined with a low walk total is all the ingredients for success. Niese is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA and he’s likely to stay around that mark all season. Also note that the Astros are 1-4 against southpaws and that’s unlikely to improve against this tough lefty. Play: N.Y. Mets -129 (Risking 2 units to win 1.55).
Arizona +130 over WASHINGTON
The Diamondbacks have picked it up lately with three wins in their past four after a rough start to the year. The slow start can largely be blamed on their bullpen, a unit that couldn’t record outs for the first 15 games and compiled an ERA near 8. However, the Snakes have played 16 of their 22 games at extreme hitter’s parks (13 at home and three at Coors) so don’t put too much weight into it. Trevor Cahill’s surface stats suggest he’s struggling but his skills say otherwise. It begins with an outstanding 59% groundball rate. In his two road starts at Colorado and San Diego, Cahill went a combined 13.1 innings and allowed six hits and two runs. His xERA trend has been decreasing for three years running. His skills strongly suggest to stick with him. Jordan Zimmerman is another solid starter in the Nationals’ rotation. Zimmermann's now sitting on a 1.33 ERA and 0.70 WHIP through four starts, unsustainable numbers for sure but representative of the massive talent in that right arm of his. The problem is run support from a Nationals team that has dropped four in a row and is batting .180 over that span. When a team is struggling at the plate, they are too risky to be spotting a tag against a hot team and that’s precisely the case here. Play: Arizona +130 (Risking 2 units).
