The Hot Streak: May 6th, 2012
8:15 AM Neil Braslow
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BRP’s Picks – May 6th, 2012
YTD (22-16) +0.95 Units
1:05 P.M. – Texas Rangers (Yu Darvish) @ Cleveland Indians (Ubaldo Jiminez)
I have yet to have a step out game yet this season, this will be the first time since I started posting, and will be the biggest wager I have made thus far this season. The Rangers have played very well on the road this season going 10-4 away from their home ballpark. They have also been very good at winning by more than 1 run, as in their last 5 wins, all of them have come by at least 2 runs. The Indians have struggled at home this season, going 5-8 so far this season. The Rangers have also dominated this matchup as of late, taking 8 of the last 10 games against the Indians.
Why Ubaldo still carries any name recognition is absolutely beyond me. Yes, he was very good a couple years ago, yes he threw a no-hitter, but that pitcher is nowhere to be found anymore. Ubaldo managed to post a 5.36 E.R.A. after the all-star break last season, and has backed that up by posting a 5.02 E.R.A. so far this season in his first 5 starts. That 5.02 E.R.A. has also come in starts against the Royals twice, the White Sox, Jays, and A’s. His opponent today is a much better hitting team than any team he has seen thus far this season. Just as a throw in, Ubaldo has an E.R.A. of 9 against the Rangers in his career.
Yu Darvish was shaky in his first start of his career in the MLB, at the same time, who wouldn’t be. Darvish allowed 5 earned runs, and wasn’t able to make it through 6 innings in that first start. Since that start, Yu has made 4 more starts, going 27.1 innings, and giving up just 3 earned over that span, less runs combined than he gave up in just that first start. He has also compiled 19 strikeouts in his last 2 starts, more than he had in his first 3 combined. It is very clear that Darvish has settled in, and that is something that major league teams should be very concerned about!
Ubaldo vs. Yu, Rangers win big!!!
Rangers RL -1 at -120 (6 units to win 5)
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2:05 P.M. – St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright) @ Houston Astros (J.A. Happ)
The Astros have been an over machine this year, posting 20 overs to just 7 unders so far this year. The Astros have also posted 6.2 runs per game over their last 5 games played, while the Cardinals have averaged that same 6.2 runs per game over that same span. To add fuel to the fire, the total has gone over the posted number in these teams last 6 games against each other.
J.A. Happ is not a good pitcher, plain and simple, that’s all their really is to say about him. Happ has a 4.6 E.R.A. this season, and has yet to have a start where he has allowed less than 3 runs so far this season. The biggest selling point here is that Happ absolutely HATES pitching against the Cards. Over the last 3 years, in a good sample size of 7 starts against them, he holds an E.R.A. above 7 against the team he is facing today.
Something is clearly wrong with Adam Wainwright, and until that changes, he will be a good pitcher to fade. Wainwright has posted a 6.75 E.R.A. so far this season over his first 5 starts, and has allowed 4 or more runs in all but 1 of those 5 starts. Wainwright has also historically not been the same pitcher on the road that he is at home, posting an E.R.A. nearly 1.5 points higher on the road than at home over his career.
Happ against the Cards, and Wainwright struggling, RUNS, RUNS, RUNS!!!
1st 5 Total Ov. 4 -110 (3.3 to win 3)
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1:10 P.M. – Arizona Diamondbacks (Trevor Cahill) @ New York Mets (R.A. Dickey)
The Mets are 9-6 at home this season, and the home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings when these teams matchup against each other. I really just love the value here with the -1 RL, as getting over 1.5 to 1 on this seems crazy, I will risk the push at the Mets winning by 1 to get that kind of value.
Dickeys E.R.A. is skewed based on one terrible start that he had this season when it rained against the Braves. Dickey is one of, if not the most consistent pitchers in baseball, as he will give you a quality start pretty much every time he takes the mound. His E.R.A. of just above 2 this year at home, to go along with his impressive 3.3 E.R.A. over his last 3 seasons are better indicators of his talent level.
Over his career Cahill has struggled on the road when compared to his E.R.A. while pitching at his home ballpark. Cahill’s career 4.71 E.R.A. on the road is cause for concern, as it is nearly 1.5 points higher than his E.R.A. at home. Cahill has done decently well so far this season, but Dickey should be the better pitcher today.
Taking the Mets and the implied crazy value here!!!
Mets RL -1 at +155 (2 units to win 3.1)