The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - May 2, 2012 - YTD: 72-66-4 (70-59-4 since starting 2-7 because of rust)

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2012 MLB O/U Record:72-66-4, -$77 (70-59-4 since starting 2-7 because of rust)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)


Really starting to be my more consistent dominant self, as after yesterday’s 2-1 performance, I profited for the fifth straight day, as well as hit my No. 1 daily best bet for the fifth straight day as well. See, as I’ve been assuring all of you all year, there’s absolutely no doubt in my mind I will be back at my 57-percent level, no doubt whatsoever. And as I’ve also been saying, I know I can top my success last year. I’m in a real groove right now so keep tailing me, especially on this delightful Wednesday slate where I have several good over/under bets that deserve serious consideration…


**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**


Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays (BestBet)
Matt Harrison vs Ricky Romero
UNDER 8.5

All I have to say is wow. This, to me at least, is a very, very nice pitching matchup of two of the best left handers in the American League, and soon enough,will be considered such in all of baseball. Not only that, but this is a definite point in time where each southpaw has really hit his stride and is in their prime. Let’s review:

When it comes to daytime games, Ricky Romero is as good as they get. In fact, as soon as I saw the line for this game, I could only think about the foolish mistake Vegas made in giving under bettors that extra half-run in this specific contest, which would reward us for a very simple, yet possible, 5-3 outcome. While it’s obvious both offenses can be explosive with the potential to put runs on the board against any pitcher, Vegas should have taken Romero’s proven afternoon dominance throughout his career more into consideration, especially when he’s at home. First off, his numbers throughout his career have been considerably better at home across the board, where he rarely has an off performance. Secondly, his daytime numbers compared to his nightly statline are like, ahem, night and day. There’s almost a half-run difference throughout his career in favor of his afternoon ERA, which we also have gotten a glimpse of this year. In day games, Romero has a 2.95 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, not to mention a wicked.153 opposing batting average, in three starts, while his night numbers have seen him produce a 3.55 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, to go along with a .255 opposing batting average. I mean, either way, Romero is just damn good, and in my opinion, is one of the most underappreciated starters in all of baseball. He’s just a quality start machine, and while his awesome day pitching will be put to the limit against the best lineup in baseball today, I have confidence he will overcome that, especially given his amazing career numbers against the Rangers. You might not have guessed that Romero has a 0.92 ERA and 0.99 WHIP against Texas throughout his career in four starts, with a 24:7 K:B ratio. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that Romero should have his usual quality start today.

Matt Harrison is another intriguing lefty, and like Romero, appears to have hit hiss tride. While he doesn’t share the same extensive track record of success, it’s obvious, at least to me as a lifelong Ranger fan, that this is the Matt Harrison we expected to get when he was part of the Mark Teixeira trade in the summer of 2007. I always knew Harrison would develop into an upper-rotation guy, like a Ken Hill or a Rick Helling (Former top Rangers pitchers with hittable stuff, but smart and crafty enough to succeed), and with a 3-1 record and 3.37 ERA, he’s well on his way to becoming a well-known fixture atop the pitching staff. The only thing discouraging is his 1.35 WHIP, which is not really good for a guy with low strikeout numbers, but at the end of the day, I know he’ll end up around his 2011 statline (3.39 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). I’m very thrilled to see the type of pitcher Matt Harrison has developed into, and have confidence he can keep it going here today. Just a very nice afternoon pitching matchup of two intriguing southpaws, and in addition, we can also hope the hitters are tired for this early start time after last night’s wild and draining 8-7 contest.


**Will Add More Over/Unders And Writeups Throughout The Day Leading Up To Gametime**
 
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Here's my other afternoon game...



Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Clayton Kershaw vs Drew Pomeranz
UNDER 8.5

One of my rules of betting over/unders is to never get into the habit of betting solely BASED on the line set by Vegas for a given game. You will succeed in this industry by getting YOUR own opinion and vibe on a pitching matchup by looking at it and studying it BEFORE looking at the actual line, and then making a decision on what to do and how it relates to the line. But if you’re letting lines dictate what bets you make, you will not go far, at least when it comes to MLB Over/Unders.

That said, I’m about to sort of go against that critical rule and suggest that any chance you get at an under of 8.5 with the best pitcher in the National League on the hill, Clayton Kershaw, you really should take it. I mean, I had a decent lower-scoring vibe for this one in any case, but it’s a little ridiculous how much Vegas is weighing the Coors Field factor in this instance, or perhaps they simply made the line the way it is in spite of Drew Pomeranz. There’s really no use in talking up Kershaw, as every baseball fan in the country (And Canada) is familiar with his Cy Young credentials and continued excellence in 2012, but Pomeranz is an interesting case. He showed a little something in his brief 2011 stint despite a 5.40 ERA, and interestingly enough, that is his exact ERA at this point in time in 2012. The fact is, Pomeranz is better than that, and if he sticks in the rotation all year long, he should be a guy who produces an ERA somewhere in the mid-to-high 4 area. That progress could begin tonight, but luckily for us, even if he only has a so-so start, we can still win this under. Kershaw hopefully gives us his usual fantastic effort (Although Colorado gave him the hardest time last year), in limiting the Rockies to 1-3 runs, and as long as Pomeranz isn’t hit too hard, we’ll prevail. Not a huge bet, but certainly something interesting to consider for a Clayton Kershaw game. Also working in our favor is my own personal 3-0 record on Pomeranz over/unders (1-0 last year with a random under vs ErikSurkamp, 2-0 this year; both on overs vs Marco Estrada and Chris Schwinden) so let’s hope I can keep that going.
 
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And my final dollar amount will be $121 for $115 on Harrison vs Romero UNDER 8/8.5 ($84 for $80 on under 8.5, $37 for $35 on under 8. Line went down)
 
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Nice to see a lot of action on this game, Ricky Romero is truly an artist when it comes to daytime pitching at home, and it will also help that Beltre and Hambone are out of the lineup. Like I said, this is my best bet of the day, and considering I've won my best bet of the day in five straight days, I'm confident I'll extend that streak to six.

You know what, I'm adding another $11 for $10 to this bet, thus making it:

Harrison vs Romero UNDER 8/8.5 - $132 for $125 ($84 for $80 on under 8.5, $48 for $45 on under 8)
 
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Best of all, if you're watching the game on Extra Innings, it's the Blue Jays broadcast, meaning we get to hear Buck Martinez!!! My favorite play-by-play man in baseball
 
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Nice way to start the ballgame. 2nd and 3rd with one out and Romero escapes against the potent Rangers lineup, terrific play and decision by Brett Kawrie to go home on that one-out grounder... just as an aside, one thing that's going to separate him from most Major League third baseman over time is his incredibly, incredibly high baseball IQ. I picked up on it in his rookie stint last year and that's just another example of it
 

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Nice way to start the ballgame. 2nd and 3rd with one out and Romero escapes against the potent Rangers lineup, terrific play and decision by Brett Kawrie to go home on that one-out grounder... just as an aside, one thing that's going to separate him from most Major League third baseman over time is his incredibly, incredibly high baseball IQ. I picked up on it in his rookie stint last year and that's just another example of it

solid play saved a run...
 

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oh well. Good luck with the Dodgers play.

The ball travels a lot better when that roof is open in Toronto.
 
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True, the ball does carry well better with Toronto's roof open. Didn't really consider that, as I feel like it's usually closed.

I'm just very unhappy how this game turned out. One, Vegas realized they made a mistake in opening the under at 8.5 (-105), so much so that they changed it immediately overnight to under 8 (-105). That's a very significant alteration in such a short timespan - we had Vegas on the ropes and they got away with it. It's also frustrating because Matt Harrison is a brilliant daytime pitcher, just like Ricky Romero, but unfortunately, it was Harrison who blew it for us despite really no evidence that would suggest he'd be off (Although he wasn't really off, just one bad inning). His one off start came before this one, however, so it seems like he's hit a rough patch in his season.

And I don't fault Romero at all because when the game is 8-1 and you're a perfectionist like he is (Trust me, he is. I have a good read on him from watching numerous times over these past few years. He's like an artist who carefully paints the strike zone), that completely messes you up mentally, and a lot of times, you lose that sense of urgency and you're just going through the motions, with the game seemingly already "decided." So I tip my cap to Romero for doing his part, as he always does in an afternoon home setting. The runs he gave up when it was 8-1 had really nothing to do with him at all (Hence why he walked three guys in a row in that next inning).

Whatever, can't win 'em all. I'll add the rest my card today in a bit, hopefully we can get some of this loss back with the Dodgers/Rockies game. As for my dollar amount on that one...

Kershaw vs Pomeranz UNDER 8.5 - $42 for $40 (Line actually jumped up to 9, but I don't feel forcing more money on the game)
 
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Kershaw vs Pomeranz under is 0-0 in the third so a nice start to that one over there. Here's what will probably be my final write-up for the day in this promising bet...


Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
Yovani Gallardo vs Jeff Suppan
OVER 6.5

This is one of the oddest pitching matchups I’ve seen in all my years doing this. Forget the ridiculously low line, I just can’t believe that JEFF SUPPAN is starting a Major League Baseball game in 2012. Let that sink in: Jeff Suppan is somehow back on a Major League roster, and starting again. Mind blown. Let me just say that I do not dislike Mr. Suppan or think he’s a bad pitcher; in fact, I actually was beginning to like him during his final tour in the bigs as a grizzled old veteran with, ironically enough, his opponent for tonight, the Brewers. There have certainly been times in the past where Suppan was one of the better starters in the league, as he’s had 16-win campaigns and even memorable postseason performances, such as in 2006. But in 2012, I just can’t envision him ever returning to old form, as much as I’d like to see it out of pure bias for the guy, but with the way he ended his career, there’s no indication he can be solid again. His ERA was consistently above five throughout his last few seasons, he didn’t even pitch in 2011, and during his two-start stint in Triple A that just finished up, he posted a 12.15 ERA. How exactly is a guy supposed to bounce back from getting roughed up by minor leaguers to facing Ryan Braun?? And facing a lineup that is already familiar with his stuff?? Is it peven ossible?

Yovani Gallardo is currently mired in his own struggles, although it’s not as bad as his season numbers would seem to point to. While his ERA is 6.08 and his WHIP is 1.65, Gallardo has gone seven innings in three of his five starts, while giving up one or two runs in each of those outings. The other two starts, though? A combined 14 runs in under six innings. Yikes. Obviously, Gallardo is not close to being as bad as that, nor is he close to be as atrocious as his overall numbers for the year, which is why this over is a little tricky. This is a great opportunity for him to get back on track both mentally and physically against a very weak Padres lineup, but as long as they can scratch out a coupleo f runs in an over of 6.5, shouldn’t that be enough with Suppan as the opposing hurler? I’d like to think so, and I’m definitely going to bite on it, otherwise I wouldn’t be doing a write-up on it. Let’s just hope this isn’t some sort of shady Vegas dealing here.


**Will Add One or Two More Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
 

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For me I think nowaday,the vegas not handle the line anymore.That one open the lines is OFF SHORE ISLAND.If it is wrong please correct me.
 

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The only play I have for this afternoon is DODGERS UNDER 9............steamed all the way up i guess up to gametime i guess. I got 9 (-105) on reduced juice on 5dimes.
 
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Unfucking believable. Once again, I'm 100% right about the pitching matchup and not rewarded, Kershaw vs Pomeranz was 2-1 in the 8th and yet again, another bullpen collapse ensues, which is why my record is so misleading.

Anyway, $42 for $40 on that Gallardo vs Suppan over 6.5 is my final dollar amount for that one
 
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Also adding:

Beaven vs Shields UNDER 7.5 - Only $18 for $15.

Forcing a bit because you all know of my love for Beaven, although I seriously fear a 5-3 outcome
 

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Unfucking believable. Once again, I'm 100% right about the pitching matchup and not rewarded, Kershaw vs Pomeranz was 2-1 in the 8th and yet again, another bullpen collapse ensues, which is why my record is so misleading.

Anyway, $42 for $40 on that Gallardo vs Suppan over 6.5 is my final dollar amount for that one

Tough loss.
Dr. orders some money on 1st 5 innings.
 

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True especially with unders when you are playing them based on the starters anyway. In other news wtf is going on with Suppan. I played the brewers tt over because i thought the padres would be the team getting gemmed. Gl
 

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