Derby

JudgeWapner · May 2, 2012

It's that time of year again. Let's put our heads together and make some jing. Everyone is welcome to join in this thread.

I'm gonna start with some general things to look at.
I like a horses that are lightly raced. However they should have run a race or two at two tears old. I like a horses that are moving forward at Derby time. Winning a prep is not a must. I like horses that have demonstrated the ability to handle the CD track. Either in a race or works. We also must determine which of the contenders can handle the added distance. Finally we must determine how the race will be run in order to see who's running style will benefit. The post positions we'll be drawn this afternoon. Starting tomorrow will we look at each individual horse.

Betallsports · May 2, 2012

BOL ! T :toast:

douglas · May 2, 2012

Look forward to your yearly post .............hope all is well .

cocktailsnlongshots+ · May 2, 2012

i am not leaving out Optimizer on my exotic(tri's and super's) tickets....DWayne will have this one geared up picking up pieces at the end...can certainly get the distance...horse totally bounce in the Ark Derby, but watch what he did in the Rebel Stakes...very impressive...have not seen who Lukas is gonna stick on him...just please god, don't be jon court....NOT a big time jock when it counts...cheers

irishcapper · May 2, 2012

Looking forward to it. Good luck

8ate · May 2, 2012

I am betting whatever Old Man Ted has; best advice: Stay away from Mint Juleps..

gl

DrunkenHorseplayer · May 2, 2012

This could change because thunderstorms are forecast for Friday and Saturday in Louisville but right now I'm putting Bodemeister, Creative Cause and Dullahan on top with horses TBD in the next two spots.

TheRightSide · May 2, 2012

Drunken Horseplayer said:
This could change because thunderstorms are forecast for Friday and Saturday in Louisville but right now I'm putting Bodemeister, Creative Cause and Dullahan on top with horses TBD in the next two spots.

I just don't see Bodemeister holding up to what I think will be a killer half mile pace. I am leaning on Union Rags and Gemologist

michael777 · May 2, 2012

love union rags

Betallsports · May 3, 2012

trytrytry · May 3, 2012

not a strong chance of rain today for sure not...sort of walken in like i knew what i was doing ok snuck into secretatiat room yesterday for the draw was pretty cool...

douglas · May 3, 2012

Like the 1O w/ Gomez

JudgeWapner · May 3, 2012

1. Daddy Long Legs- Tactical speed. Won the UAE Derby which is his only race at 3. Tough to ship from across the ocean for this race. Better horses than him of tried and failed. Ran once on dirt in US at CD and didn't do anything. I'll pass.

2.Optimizer- Closer. ran a nice one two back in The Rebel.Other than that, not much to be enthused about. Doesn't seem as fast as many here. Ran twice at CD but didn't show much. Works are so-so. Has only won once in 11 races. I'll look elsewhere.

3.Take Charge Indy-Speed-tactical Got slow fractions in The Fla Derby and took it wire to wire. Doubt if he gets those soft fractions here. Has Borel up which is always a plus.One so-so race a CD.Should be a factor early.

4. Union Rags-Tactical 2nd favorite for a reason. One of the top 3 year olds. Got 3rd in the Fla Derby but was trying to close into soft fractions.Lightly raced. Had a nice race over the CD strip. Works look good. He should be ready.

Betallsports · May 3, 2012

My early lean is Hansen... but still have a lot of looking to do.

JudgeWapner · May 3, 2012

5. Dullahan- Closer. Got the fast fractions he needed in the blue Grass. Came from the clouds to win. Will need a faster pace here. Has run 3 times a CD.So-so efforts. Desormeaux up is a plus. Should like the added distance. Should be gaining ground down the stretch. A few too many races at 2 for my liking. Have to consider.

6. Bodemeister. Speed. Favorite. Quality horse. Good post. Should go for the lead out of the gate.Has done nothing wrong nad has posted nice speed figures.Good breeding, good connections. I always wonder about a big speed fig in the Ark Derby. Many times it does not translate to Derby day.No races at CD, but a solid work the other day. Big question is, can he get the 1 1/4.

7. Rousing Sermon-Closer. Not real great speed figures. Has the look of a 2nd echelon horse. A lot of races at 2. Never raced at CD. Had one average work there. Smith chose the 6 over this one. If early splits are extremely fast, maybe. But I will pass.

8. Creative Cause-Tactical. Nice animal. Has run some nice speed figs. Certainly belongs.Ran a nice one at CD. Also a good work there.Lost to I'll Have in the SA Derby. One to consider.

JudgeWapner · May 3, 2012

9. Trinniberg- Speed. Looks more like a miler than a horse that will get the 1 1/4. Has to go out on the front end. Quality animal who has some nice speed figs. However they are asking a lot from a horse who has only gone 7f. Pass.

10. Daddy Knows Best- tactical-closer Jumped and ran a big one last out.That was some time ago. Heavily raced as a two year old.Has run twice on the dirt and twice on the dirt at CD with mixed results. Not crazy about his last work.

11. Alpha- Tactical. I like this one. Ran a hell of a race in The Wood. Not sure how good those horses were though. Had all sorts of trouble and still almost won.Lightly raced. One race at CD which sucked. Not sure he will handle the track. Hope we get a work there to see how he does.Dominguez chose Hansen over this one. Interesting at a solid price.

12.Prospective-Tactical - Closer. Not sure he is fast enough for this race. Recent works are unimpressive. One race at CD where he did not perform well. Toss

JudgeWapner · May 3, 2012

13. Went The Day Well-Tactical. Interesting.Has done nothing wrong but really hasn't run against top competition. Seems to be coming up to his best. His speed figure last out puts him in the mix here.Velazquez up. Should like the distance. Live horse.

14.Hansen- Speed-Very nice horse. Should be near the front early. PP is no real problem. 3 races at 2 and 3 which I like. Not sure about the added distance for this one. Ran a very nice race at CD. Not crazy about works.

15.Gemologist-Speed/Tactical- Lightly raced and on the steady improve. Changed it's running style slightly in the Wood and stayed off the lead.He should continue to improve. If he does, should have a shot. Has won twice at CD.

16. El Padrino- Tactical- Quality horse with good connections.Ran a 111 3 back. Just didn't seem to fire in the Fla derby.No races or works at CD. Not sure what to expect out of him on Sat.

JudgeWapner · May 3, 2012

17. Done Talking-Closer- Another one who does not have the speed figures to fit in here.Looks like he beat very little in the Ill Derby. No races or works at CD. Not real crazy about his chances here. Pass.

18.Sabercat-Closer- Also less than impressive speed figs although he is on the improve. two good races at CD. Average at best recent works. Just don't see it. Toss.

19. I'll Have Another. Tactical. Winner of the SA Derby. Tough post for a horse that wants to be just off the pace.Lightly raced. No races or works at CD. Should be on the improve.Looks like a decent horse, but I don't like the post. A recipe for a wide trip.

20.Liaison-Closer/Tactical Did his best running at 2. No races at CD. 2 average works. Speed figures are a cut below best here. Don't know why Baffert is running him. Post sucks, but he will back off and head to the rail to save ground. Still don't see it.

21. My Adonis-tactical/speed. Whether he gets in or not, I don't like him. Don't think he can get this distance. Outside post will hurt him. Gone.

paftraft · May 3, 2012

I bet Hanson at 16-1 at a soid book mainly because DSI has Hansen at 5-1.
Dullahan at 12-1 because most books have him at 8-1

ChiTownHustler · May 3, 2012

rags/ dullahan/ rousing sermon/ daddy knows best
box and hope for r sermon to be on top

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