The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - May 3, 2012 - YTD: 72-71-4

CatsOverUnders · May 3, 2012

2012 MLB O/U Record: 72-71-4, -$335
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Worst day of the season yesterday and my first losing performance since last Thursday, as there was just some real, real bizarre stuff yesterday. Jeff Suppan makes his first start in two years, after producing a 12+ ERA in Triple A just last week (!!), and somehow completely shuts out one of the best teams in the National League, not to mention a team that was already very familiar with his stuff after playing with them for awhile so recently. With the line at a ridiculous 6.5, I'm pretty sure nobody in the country took the under in that game, as that would just be a stupid, non-sensical bet, but apparently, Vegas knew something enough to sucker everyone on the over. I had the under in the Jered Weaver game because he owns the Twins... he throws a no-hitter and I lose? I couldn't have been anymore right in Clayton Kershaw vs Drew Pomeranz under 8.5, as that game was 2-1 in the 8th, but when it rains it pours, so of course there was a fluke happening to ruin it - ultimately, we still could have won, as all we needed was one more strike in the ninth with two outs against .200-hitting scrub Dee Gordon, but of course he laces a run-scoring double off closer Rafael Betancourt and his previously 0.67 ERA. Of course. But in the world of over/unders, you just move on to the next day and don't dwell on the recent past...

Taking some afternoon games today, but NO write-ups, as these aren't big bets or anything. I will have write-ups for some of my later games (Sanchez vs Vogelsong over 6.5, Kennedy vs Detwiler over 6.5), but for now, here's my early games on the slate...

Joe Blanton vs Randall Delgado UNDER 6.5 - $39 for $35 (Delgado much better than his 6+ ERA, as he was showing last year. He'll figure it out)
Ryan Dempster vs Homer Bailey OVER 8 - $37 for $35 (Both pitchers overachieving right now, due for an off outing, good chance at least one succumbs to that in an extreme hitter's ballpark like Great American)
Kevin Millwood vs Jeff Niemann OVER 8 - $18 for $15 (Small amount, as I know Millwood is better than his current numbers and will start to pick it up at some point. I fear a 3-1 kinda game)

**Will Add More Over/Unders Throughout Day, With Write-Up(s)**

CatsOverUnders · May 3, 2012

That should read "Blanton vs Delgado UNDER 8". Obviously the line wouldn't be 6.5 for that one

CatsOverUnders · May 3, 2012

Nice win in Blanton vs Delgado under. There should be more going on in Dempster vs Bailey over, as Bailey was rocked for three home runs, but of course they were all solo jobs. I got the desired bad start from one of those guys but Dempster has just been too good today. And Millwood vs Niemann over is nicely on pace. Here's my two writeups for my two biggest bets on the slate...

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (Best Bet)
Ian Kennedy vs Ross Detwiler
OVER 6.5

Not a huge best bet or anything but one that was tempting enough for my over/under taste buds to label today’s best bet, and with some supporting reasoning. First,we have Ross Detwiler, who was in the middle of a bit of a controversy before the season started when he unprecedentedly bumped former ace John Lannan out of the rotation and into Triple A, but has shown exactly why Davey Johnson pulled off that move. Detwiler has a remarkable 1.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, among the National League leaders in both, and each of his starts has qualified as a quality one. However, his last start was his roughest one (6 IP, 3 ER in Los Angeles), perhaps sporting signs that the wheels are about to come off a bit on his 2012 dominance, since, you know, he’s obviously not going to continue at his awesome pace. Not to say he’s about to go into a huge slump or anything (Since I always noticed his potential in the past to be a fine big-league starter) that will put him on the wrong track, but as long as it’s enough to whack a few runs out of him, that’s all we’ll need for an over of 6.5

Then we have Ian Kennedy, who thus far has proven his amazing 2011 campaign was no fluke at all. Only thing is, with his 3.37 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, he hasn’t been as stellar as last season. The concern for this over is that he held the Nationals completely in check last year in two starts, owning them over 14 innings and surrendering only one run while striking out 11. Luckily, this is a different Nationals lineup with a completely different attitude, and guys who have improved from a year ago (Desmond, Espinosa, etc.), and can be live on any given night. At home and in the finale of this interesting three-game set, I could see the D.C. bats sparking some life and contributing to our low over here tonight.

Miami Marlins @ San Francisco Giants
Anibal Sanchez vs Ryan Vogelsong
OVER 6.5

Without question, one of the best stories of all of last season was the incredible journey of Ryan Vogelsong. When I think about it, I sometimes still can’t believe this guy somehow resurfaced in 2011 - as an all-star, no less - and is still pitching effectively! If you recall his first big-league stint 2006ish, he was mostly awful, and barely able to hold onto a spot with the then-dreadful Pittsburgh Pirates. He was so bad you’d think he’d never have a shot at Major League glory again, but his ascension from complete random obscurity to a dose of stardom was one of the more remarkable stories I’ve witnessed in my 20+ years of being a die-hard baseball fan. The book on him this year hasn’t been quite as glamorous, though, having a 4.19 ERA, and I think that’s more of the RyanVogelsong we will see from here on out. Is he still a solid pitcher? Absolutely, but he’s not the great one that he was last year. As a result, I think we’ll begin to see him getting touched up a bit more, and with such a low line on this game, it’s a good chance to capitalize.

Anibal Sanchez is a guy I had a TERRIFIC beat on last year, as I was 9-0 betting onhis over/unders. In fact, he was my second best pitcher to bet on in all of baseball in 2011 (Jeff Karstens was No. 1 with my magical 10-0 run that I had with him), but unfortunately, that string of perfection came to an end this year (As did that one with Karstens), as I’m merely 1-1 with him thus far. Looking at his 2012 performance, it’s a wonder how you can get any of his games wrong,as he’s gone six or seven innings in each of his four starts, yielding only two runs in all of them. In other words, Sanchez has been Mr. Consistent, an impressive run that I do not think will continue today. Even if it does, and he gives up two runs over six innings, we’d still be in decent shape, so long as Vogelsong keeps up his projected end of the bargain. Yes, Sanchez has been real good this year, but is very possible to beat, and I have confidence the Giants will find a way to get some success against him. With such a tempting line to boot, go over.

CatsOverUnders · May 3, 2012

Final amount on Sanchez vs Vogelsong OVER 6.5 is $50 for $40.

ADDING a game also: Masterson vs Danks UNDER 8.5 - $21 for $20

I'll have my final dollar amount for best bet Kennedy vs Detwiler OVER 6.5 later before gametime

tk2wndw · May 3, 2012

Your rational on Vogelsong makes perfect sense to me, but I do not understand why you think the giants will be able to score on Sanchez. He has dominated them in the past and Sandoval broke his hand last night too. The only thing concerning me about the total here is the wind is blowing out strongly to left. I definitely like the marlins here though.

CatsOverUnders · May 3, 2012

Wow. Very frustrating day AGAIN. Millwood vs Niemann was 4-2 in the SECOND INNING and can't go over 8?? Are you serious? Sanchez vs Detwiler had over 20 hits and numerous walks and can't go over 6.5? And yet another loss by 1 run in Dempster vs Bailey.

Just have to look past it. Final $$ amount in Kennedy vs Detwiler over 6.5 is $92 for $75