Betting UFC On Fox

Search

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,160
Tokens
Betting UFC on Fox: Miller vs. Diaz

Analyzing and picking winners against the spread for all fights at UFC on Fox 3

By John Candido | FightMetric
ESPN INSIDER
in.gif



In the UFC's third stint on Fox, Jim Miller and Nate Diaz will compete in front of a national primetime audience for a shot at the UFC lightweight title. Neither Miller nor Diaz should be confused with their older brothers (Dan and Nick, respectively), though in Nate's case, the similarities are overwhelming. Nate's style, Stockton attitude and MMA success look more like Nick's with every passing fight. Though the signature Diaz brother style has worked wonders in the past, the public happens to disagree about Nate's chances versus Miller.


We're here to crunch the numbers and see whether Nate's pace is being underrated in this five-round bout, as well as to find value in the other money lines as the UFC reaches mainstream audiences on Saturday night.



<center>Johny Hendricks (minus-120) vs. Josh Koscheck (plus-100)

</center>

Hendricks has some elite company: He and Georges St. Pierre are the only men to ever beat Jon Fitch in his UFC career. Even more impressive, Hendricks defeated the pound-for-pound great Fitch with a spectacular knockout 12 seconds into the first round. This wasn't Hendricks' first experience with quick KO/TKOs, having two other first-round wins come less than two minutes in. Though Koscheck will have his hands full standing in this fight, Hendricks' knockout power will actually be the least of his worries.


The truth is that Hendricks' wrestling is really where his advantage is. A four-time All-American wrestler at Oklahoma State University, Hendricks maintains an incredibly high 5.07 takedowns per 15 minutes. Though Koscheck is an accomplished All-American wrestler himself, he has managed to achieve only 2.68 takedowns per 15 minutes over the course of his UFC career. To make matters worse for Koscheck, Hendricks is also more efficient at landing strikes, with 3.16 strikes landed per minute (SLpM) at a 53 percent rate compared to Koscheck who lands 1.87 SLpM at a 37 percent rate. And on top of this all, Hendricks has lost only one fight in his MMA career, which was by decision, thus never having been knocked out or submitted, and is six years younger than the aging 34-year-old Koscheck.


With nearly even odds, it appears that Hendricks should be a much heavier favorite heading into this one.


Insider's value pick: Hendricks


<hr style="width: 50%;">​


<center>Main event: Five rounds

</center>

<center>Jim Miller (minus-220) vs. Nate Diaz (plus-180)

</center>The fact neither Nate nor Nick Diaz has been knocked out in any of their 57 MMA fights is remarkable, especially given their tendency to mix it up and push the action. As mentioned above, the Diaz brothers' unique fighting strategy has produced some historic moments, with both siblings setting or approaching striking volume records nearly every time that they step into the Octagon. Most impressive was Nate's defeat of heavy favorite Donald Cerrone in his last bout. With the majority of Cerrone's advantage seemingly in the striking department, Cerrone was definitively outstruck by Diaz 238-96 in significant strikes landed. The situation won't be much different in his fight against Jim Miller, with Diaz averaging 4.24 SLpM compared to Miller who lands just 2.23 per minute. Add to this Diaz's five-inch reach advantage over Miller, and it looks as if he should have no problem stealing rounds if he can stay on his feet.


It's no surprise, however, that Miller will want to take this fight to the ground. Miller's greatest skill is in the submission game, having won 12 of his 21 fights in this manner. Against any other fighter, Miller's 3.14 submissions attempted per 15 minutes would be a great advantage, but against Diaz, who has only one submission loss on his record (and that came nearly six years ago), it's a much more difficult prospect. Diaz himself is no stranger to submissions, especially fighting off of his back. With five rounds to fight, each starting on the feet, it could be a very long night for Miller against the volume puncher Diaz. And even if Miller can keep Diaz on his back, he'll have to battle against the dangerous submission attempts that Diaz is known for from this position, making Diaz a great value at plus-180.


Insider's value pick: Diaz


<hr style="width: 50%;">​


<center> Rousimar Palhares (minus-280) vs. Alan Belcher (plus-240)

</center>It would be an understatement to say that Palhares is one of the most terrifying fighters in mixed martial arts. His uniquely violent brand of MMA, featuring ACL-tearing heel hooks and hyperextending kneebars, has gotten the attention of many fans and the majority of the middleweight division. His ability isn't just reserved for spectacle, as the statistics couldn't agree more about his technical ability to dominate opponents.


Palhares has maintained a career average of 4.17 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is extremely high for a submission specialist. What makes that number more potent is when you pair it with his aggressive 3.98 submission attempts per minute, ranking as the fifth-highest rate in UFC history. To further add to the allure, Palhares boasts one of the most interesting statistics in MMA: a zero percent takedown defense because he purposely allows opponents to take him down. With top position on the ground being one of the most coveted positions in MMA, the fact Palhares willingly concedes bottom position with continued success is incredibly impressive.


Palhares' only stoppage has come against Nate Marquardt, who was able to thwart his prolific submission attack in the first round. Whether Belcher can hold Palhares off as well comes down to matter of takedown defense. Marquardt, who has a 73 percent career takedown defense, was able to successfully stop all of Palhares' attempts to take him down. Compare this to Belcher, who successfully defends only 53 percent of takedowns, and it's likely that Palhares will be able to bring him to the ground at some point. With a 50/50 chance of getting Belcher to the mat, it's highly likely that Palhares will be able to finish the fight quickly via submission. With the tools to impose his will, consider Palhares a very good value as a favorite at only minus-280.


Insider value pick: Palhares


<hr style="width: 50%;">​


<center>Pat Barry (minus-210) vs. Lavar Johnson (plus-175)

</center>

Johnson made quite an entrance into the UFC with a dominant knockout victory over Joey Beltran in the first round. In his second fight in the UFC, he faces one of the better striking heavyweights in Barry. Despite his reputation, Barry's numbers don't stack up as well against Johnson as the public thinks, making the case for Johnson as a solid underdog.


Aside from his first MMA fight in 2004, Johnson has not lost a fight by KO/TKO. In fact, all four of the Strikeforce veteran's losses have come by submission, which is not exactly Barry's specialty. He has never won a fight in this manner and has never even attempted a submission in UFC competition. With Johnson not having to worry about the possibility of submission, Johnson's significant 7.5-inch reach advantage over Barry should serve him well in standing exchanges.


With a seeming advantage standing and the ability to win by submission if necessary, Johnson is definitely a great value at plus-175.



Insider's value pick: Lavar Johnson


<hr style="width: 50%;">​


<center>Tony Ferguson (minus-270) vs. Michael Johnson (plus-210)

</center>

On paper, Ferguson is the more dominant fighter than Johnson in almost every category, which is why he is favored heavily at minus-270. However, there are two specific statistics that make this matchup a stay away from, even with the seemingly one-sided statistical breakdown in Ferguson's favor.


First, Johnson seems to be a very one-dimensional fighter in one important regard: the way that he loses. In Johnson's six career losses, five have come by way of submission, with the other loss coming by decision -- meaning that he has never been knocked out before. Though Ferguson might be the first to accomplish such a feat, impressively knocking out five of his past six opponents and landing a formidable 4.73 strikes per minute, he hasn't won by submission since fighting in a local promotion in 2009.


The second statistic that presents a problem for a potential rout by Ferguson is Johnson's very high 86 percent takedown defense. While this number is not based on a high sample size of data yet, it does put into question the possibility of Ferguson taking this fight to the ground at some point if he decides to try. There is always the possibility that Johnson can steal a decision victory or catch Ferguson in an exchange on the feet.



With the standup always carrying uncertainty and the entirety of this fight likely taking place there, you'll want more of a guarantee before risking your bet for the small potential return on Ferguson.




Insider's value pick: Stay away
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,765
Messages
13,438,758
Members
99,334
Latest member
mu88forum
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com