My Thought's on the 138th running of the kentucky Derby

I will say that I think this might be one of the toughest Debry in years....

Sitting here Currently with 8 horses that I like to use with Exotics, which is way too many. So I need to cut it down to 4-5

I will note that I already placed a Win & Place bet on #14 Hansen who I liked from the get go.

Also, FYI.... Pouring down in Kentucky, so you should see a Wet Track.

Here are the horses that are left on my list.........

#4 Union Rags
#6 Bodemeister
#8 Creative Cause
#10 Daddy nose best
#11 Alpha
#14 Hansen
#15 Gemologist
#16 El Padrino

I know for sure that I will be keeping #14 & #16
#16 El Padrino LOVES the wet track, so I will be using him.

#11 Alpha is on the Fence ...He has missed a lot of training, and had a minor injury coming out of the Wood Memorial.

One of the few horses I threw out was Hansen.
I still have 15 horses left. "Tough Race", you can say that again.
Pass for me.

Posters: Make sure you know the rules of your desired Sports Book
before you make a wager.

Good Luck to all.

GREENHEAD said:

One of the few horses I threw out was Hansen.
I still have 15 horses left. "Tough Race", you can say that again.
Pass for me.

Posters: Make sure you know the rules of your desired Sports Book
before you make a wager.

Good Luck to all.

Click to expand...

I know you know your shit when it comes to Horse racing. Can you give me a reason you threw out Hansen ??
I know Distance is a ?? mark, but outside of that I don't see anything else.

Thanks

Greenhead

GREENHEAD said:

One of the few horses I threw out was Hansen.
I still have 15 horses left. "Tough Race", you can say that again.
Pass for me.

Posters: Make sure you know the rules of your desired Sports Book
before you make a wager.

Good Luck to all.

Click to expand...

Plus add in a sloppy track and you have even more variables! :howdy:

Betallsports said:

I know you know your shit when it comes to Horse racing. Can you give me a reason you threw out Hansen ??
I know Distance is a ?? mark, but outside of that I don't see anything else.

Thanks

Click to expand...

When it comes to the Derby I don't know shit. 0/30 give or take, so thats good for you. Anyway I threw him out mainly because:
1) He won the juvie
2) Think he will go wide with his speed and lose lots of lengths
3)Think its to far for him and will have nothing left
4)Don't think he's fast enough "Beyer" wise.
Just my opinion and a total idiot in these kind of races, so that means you have a GREAT shot, good luck. (I will be fading him in match ups)

GREENHEAD said:

When it comes to the Derby I don't know shit. 0/30 give or take, so thats good for you. Anyway I threw him out mainly because:
1) He won the juvie
2) Think he will go wide with his speed and lose lots of lengths
3)Think its to far for him and will have nothing left
4)Don't think he's fast enough "Beyer" wise.
Just my opinion and a total idiot in these kind of races, so that means you have a GREAT shot, good luck. (I will be fading him in match ups)

Click to expand...

Thanks for the reply GH, GL today..

good thing i read this, i was in the same situation, too many horses left to play anything, now i see that its wet. back to the drawing board. i also threw out hansen, to slow, wont find the front and too short [odds & distance}

i hope it is sloppy, hansen would move way up if it is.

Here is my Updated list..............

Here are the horses that are left on my list.........

#4 Union Rags
#8 Creative Cause
#11 Alpha
#14 Hansen
#15 Gemologist
#16 El Padrino

is it supposed to rain?

Akillies said:

is it supposed to rain?

Click to expand...

It has rained and Thunder storms are listed.

Track is listed as GOOD right now

Betallsports said:

It has rained and Thunder storms are listed.

Track is listed as GOOD right now

Click to expand...

and after watching that 1st race replay, Good looks a little more like Sloppy
But I've seen worst sloppy tracks

I like .. Take Charge Indy

Had to take down that Tote board ....sorry

Let's see if this works out better

<table class="sticky-enabled sticky-table"><tbody><tr class="odd"><td class="program">1</td><td class="title">Daddy Long Legs</td><td class="trainer">Aidan O'Brien</td><td class="jockey">Colm O'Donoghue</td><td class="odds">30</td><td class="odds">23</td> </tr> <tr class="even"><td class="program">2</td><td class="title">Optimizer</td><td class="trainer">D. Lukas</td><td class="jockey">Jon Court</td><td class="odds">50</td><td class="odds">35</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"><td class="program">3</td><td class="title">Take Charge Indy</td><td class="trainer">Patrick Byrne</td><td class="jockey">Calvin Borel</td><td class="odds">15</td><td class="odds">10</td> </tr> <tr class="even"><td class="program">4</td><td class="title">Union Rags</td><td class="trainer">Michael Matz</td><td class="jockey">Julien Leparoux</td><td class="odds">9/2</td><td class="odds">9/2</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"><td class="program">5</td><td class="title">Dullahan</td><td class="trainer">Dale Romans</td><td class="jockey">Kent Desormeaux</td><td class="odds">8</td><td class="odds">10</td> </tr> <tr class="even"><td class="program">6</td><td class="title">Bodemeister</td><td class="trainer">Bob Baffert</td><td class="jockey">Mike Smith</td><td class="odds">4</td><td class="odds">7</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"><td class="program">7</td><td class="title">Rousing Sermon</td><td class="trainer">Jerry Hollendorfer</td><td class="jockey">Jose Lezcano</td><td class="odds">50</td><td class="odds">35</td> </tr> <tr class="even"><td class="program">8</td><td class="title">Creative Cause</td><td class="trainer">Mike Harrington</td><td class="jockey">Joel Rosario</td><td class="odds">12</td><td class="odds">11</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"><td class="program">9</td><td class="title">Trinniberg</td><td class="trainer">Bisnath Parboo</td><td class="jockey">Willie Martinez</td><td class="odds">50</td><td class="odds">39</td> </tr> <tr class="even"><td class="program">10</td><td class="title">Daddy Nose Best</td><td class="trainer">Steven Asmussen</td><td class="jockey">Garrett Gomez</td><td class="odds">15</td><td class="odds">12</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"><td class="program">11</td><td class="title">Alpha</td><td class="trainer">Kiaran McLaughlin</td><td class="jockey">Rajiv Maragh</td><td class="odds">15</td><td class="odds">21</td> </tr> <tr class="even"><td class="program">12</td><td class="title">Prospective</td><td class="trainer">Mark Casse</td><td class="jockey">Luis Contreras</td><td class="odds">30</td><td class="odds">58</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"><td class="program">13</td><td class="title">Went the Day Well</td><td class="trainer">H. Motion</td><td class="jockey">John Velazquez</td><td class="odds">20</td><td class="odds">26</td> </tr> <tr class="even"><td class="program">14</td><td class="title">Hansen</td><td class="trainer">Michael Maker</td><td class="jockey">Ramon Dominguez</td><td class="odds">10</td><td class="odds">13</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"><td class="program">15</td><td class="title">Gemologist</td><td class="trainer">Todd Pletcher</td><td class="jockey">Javier Castellano</td><td class="odds">6</td><td class="odds">8</td> </tr> <tr class="even"><td class="program">16</td><td class="title">El Padrino</td><td class="trainer">Todd Pletcher</td><td class="jockey">Rafael Bejarano</td><td class="odds">20</td><td class="odds">26</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"><td class="program">17</td><td class="title">Done Talking</td><td class="trainer">Hamilton Smith</td><td class="jockey">Sheldon Russell</td><td class="odds">50</td><td class="odds">31</td> </tr> <tr class="even"><td class="program">18</td><td class="title">Sabercat</td><td class="trainer">Steven Asmussen</td><td class="jockey">Corey Nakatani</td><td class="odds">30</td><td class="odds">33</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"><td class="program">19</td><td class="title">I'll Have Another</td><td class="trainer">Doug O'Neill</td><td class="jockey">Mario Gutierrez</td><td class="odds">12</td><td class="odds">12</td> </tr> <tr class="even"><td class="program">20</td><td class="title">Liaison</td><td class="trainer">Bob Baffert</td><td class="jockey">Martin Garcia</td><td class="odds">50</td><td class="odds">53</td></tr></tbody></table>

Ok since I can't cut this down to 5, going to have to play around with some Tri's and Ex Box's ( all exotics are for $2 )

Going to play some Ex Keys....

8 with / 4,11,14,16

8 with / 4,14,15,16

14 with / 4,11,15,16

Ex Box's............

4,14,15,16
4,8,14,16

Tri Box's

4,14,15,16
8,11,14,16

I still like my early bet of Hansen... so I will add half that bet here

$50 Win & Place #14 Hansen

GL to All

in case you didnt know there is a horse racing section here, use it...


hno: