VP's Diamond picks : 5/5/12 (YTD: 8-8-1; -0.5 units)

Missed a couple days due to a busy schedule. Wednesday brought a 3 unit win and 2.2 unit loss. Hopefully today's profit margin is better.

Phillies/Nationals - under 6.5 (3 Units)
Three factors lead me to believe that this is the right play:
1. Worley and Gonzalez are both pitching lights out at the moment. In their last three starts, both pitchers hold a ERA of under 1 (Gonzalez 0.95, Worley 0.90)!!
2. Nationals Park is a pitcher's ballpark. The UNDER has hit 14 of the last 20 home games for the Nationals.
3. Day games are great for unders. The bats seem a little slower in day games. I don't have access to stats on daytime over/unders, but anyone who has played the game knows that the earlier the game, the longer it takes to warm-up.

Dodgers/Cubs - Dodgers -125 (2 Units)
This pitching match-up is a tale of polar opposites.. Capuano isn't my favorite pitcher to back, but he has been consistently good thus far in the season with a 3-0 record with a 2.73 ERA. He's even hit a hot streak as of late (2-0, 1.37 ERA in last 3 games). Volstad is at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Consistently BAD with 0-3, 6.11 ERA for the season and 0-2, 6.88 ERA in his last three starts.

Enjoy. and Good luck to all!

p.s. FELIZ CINCO DE MAYO!!!!!

Phillies/Nationals - under 6.5 (3 Units) Loss
Dodgers/Cubs - Dodgers -125 (2 Units) Win

The under looked solid until the bottom of the 5th, and third time trough the lineup. Werth's 3-run blast is what really did me in.
Adding:
Pirates -105 (2 Units)
Not much time for a write-up here, but I do like McDonald on the mound right now. He pitched amazingly in two straight starts, giving up only 1 hit and 1 ER in 7 IP two starts ago, and striking out 10 batters and allowing 3 ER in over 7 IP in his last start. Leake has not been great all year, and even worse recently. There is great value on the Pirates at -105.