The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - May 5, 2012 - YTD: 77-80-5

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2011 MLB O/U Record: 77-80-5, -$492
2012 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

It truly is amazing the epic bad luck that I've had the past few days, even yesterday when I was dominating. On Wednesday and Thursday, I detailed that there were FIVE GAMES that I "lost" that I really should have won, and the trend continued yesterday even though I was still up. I expected to sweep all six of my 7 o'clock over/unders last night, and was well on pace towards accomplishing that before Matt Thornton blew the save in the bottom of the ninth by offering up a two-run walk-off homer to Jhonny Peralta, thus costing my hard-earned under with Peavy vs Smyly. In addition, I was about to nail down Kendrick vs Strasberg under when the Phillies bullpen blew their 3-2 lead late in the ballgame, and of course, my under. On top of that, I should have won my best bet Cueto vs Correia over 7 that was 6-1 in the 7th; had a Pirates runner thrown out at home because they couldn't score from first base without two outs on a double down the line, and also the Reds squandered runners in scoring position with no outs, so of course it went scoreless the rest of the way, giving me a push. Unbelievable.

But what can you do? You just have to move on and hope this legendary streak of bad luck, something of which I've never even experienced in such lengthy and obvious fashion, comes to an end without a whimper. I mean, I was still 3-3-1 yesterday but it should have been a whole lot more. Time to move on to what has been my best day of the week this year, Saturday...

(I'm posting this early because this is my only 1 o'clock game that I'm taking today)


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs - $46 for $40
Chris Capuano vs Chris Volstad
UNDER 8

Again, let me stress that the biggest variable in sports for over/unders is unquestionably Wrigley Field, where the winds have the potential to single-handedly affect the outcome like no other factor. In any case, one of the pitchers that's currently experiencing a renaissance year this season absolutely has to be Chris Capuano, who has seemed to regained the form that helped him win 17 games in 2006. This is something I sensed would come along a few weeks ago, and it appears Capuano has put it all together again. He's been remarkably consistent, especially over his last three starts where he's only given up three runs in 20 innings. Cap hasn't been as good on the road this year, but he did face the Cubs once last year, shutting them down in a September start to one run over seven innings, while yielding only five hits. He's here to stay.

Chris Volstad has also been consistent, but on the other end of the spectrum. In fact, he's given up exactly three or four runs in each of his five starts this year, which is why his ERA currently sits at 6.11. He's not that bad, though, and has to start improving at some point, which I think he can today. Volstad had success against the Dodgers last year with a seven-inning, two-run effort, and he'll have the wind blowing in 10 MPH to help with his flyball ratio. I mean, that's not as severe as Wrigley Field winds can be, but still may be enough to keep the ball from going into the bleachers, and contribute to a lower-scoring contest.


**Will Add More Over/Unders, Bigger Bets, Later Today With Writeups**
(If you're wondering what my best bet is today; Surprise, it's another Bud Norris under. Get it at even money while you can because that won't last. The writeup for it will come later)

And remember, I'm 16-4-1 on Saturday over/unders this year. I plan to continue that dominance, barring an unusual or fluke occurences that have hit me tremendously the past few days.
 
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Oh wait, whoops. Years were switched, I don't even think it's possible to have 600+ over/under bets at this point in the year lol. Should read:

2012 MLB O/U Record: 77-80-5, -$492
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
 
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lol...thats what I figured. 157 is alot of totals also but if you see an advantage its worth a play. GL to you.
 
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lol...thats what I figured. 157 is alot of totals also but if you see an advantage its worth a play. GL to you.

Thanks, yes it is lol, I'm actually well ahead of my pace from last year, which is why I think I'm not doing as well as last year. This is all a mental thing and I have to correct it; When I spend hours on this stuff every night the day before the games, and then additional time doing research the next day, I go in with the attitude that I feel I "know" what will happen in every single game, and while it's fine to always have confidence (In my opinion, you can't be successful without significant confidence) I think that clouds my judgment on the games I can truly lock in on, if I'm lumping almost every game together.

I can't emphasize it enough: In betting, you are your own worst enemy. This is all mental and if you truly keep up with everything and maintain a correct sense of what's going, you have the ability to be successful every day. I just have to correct my mindset and get out of this mini slump I'm in.
 
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And here's my two biggest bets on the day in the form of writeups...

**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**


St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros (Best Bet)
Jamie Garcia vs Bud Norris
UNDER 8

Much like Bud Norris’ last start, my Monday best bet in his duel with RA Dickey, I am shocked the line is as high as it is. As a matter of fact, I feel Vegas is almost somewhat confused as to what to do with Astro home games. In some ways, it’s a hitter’s park, with the short-length Crawford Boxes in left field, and a little bit of a short trip to the wall in right field as well, but the rest of the dimensions are so dynamic, especially the unique hill in deep centerfield,that would give the pitcher the advantage, which is why I more so view Minute Maid Park as a haven for unders.

I expect that trend to continue in this game, especially with well-known Cardinal-killer Bud Norris on the hill. Regular readers know of my love for Bud, as he’s in my personal top five (Along with JA Happ, James McDonald, Blake Beaven, and Danny Duffy), and I’ve parlayed (No pun intended) that love into a very successful track record with him; I was 11-6-1 on his over/unders last year, and thus far in 2012, I am 2-0 in his starts. We have a lot of evidence to think I’ll go 3-0 with him, as he has owned the Cardinals since he first came into the league - literally. His very first start back in 2009 was a seven shutout innings gem against St. Louis, while limiting them to just two hits. He has faced the Cardinals more than any other team in his career - ten starts - and in those 65 innings, he’s allowed just 17 earned runs, producing a 2.37 ERA, not to mention a 1.14 WHIP. Trust me, one of the few certain trends that has been proven repeatedly over the past few years is Bud Norris’ dominance of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Jamie Garcia, meanwhile, has had an opposite track record against his opponent for tonight. While Garcia comes into this one carrying a 6+ career ERA against theAstros, the bulk of that dismal run came against the more-stacked version that featured guys like Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn, so he has a chance to kind of reset those numbers against a bit of a weaker Astros offense in years’ past, although that’s not to say they’re a bad lineup at all, as I’ve been saying since before the year that they’d be extremely underrated, with JD Martinez morphing into all-star form, and Jose Altuve unexpectedly among the league leaders in batting average with a nice .360 clip. Overall, Garcia has been very good this year. In fact, four of his five starts have been quality ones, and that’s one reason why his ERA sits at 2.78. His 1.42 WHIP leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s better than that and could bring it down as soon as tonight. Just a very delightful pitching matchup in that Saturday night Houston setting.


Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Mike Leake vs James McDonald
UNDER 8

It’s always a good night when two of my top five favorite pitchers are scheduled to go, and James McDonald, much like Bud Norris, is one of those guys on the card for this evening. After all, I was 11-5-3 on his games last year, and 2-1 so far this year (The one loss, by the way, I was 100% right on in that Sunday Worley/McDonald matchup in which the bullpen blew the under late in the game). McDonald has been just tremendous this year, living up to the expectations I set out for him when I first started his bandwagon when he was a Dodger making spot starts, as he’s 1-1 with a 2.97 ERA and marvelous 1.05 WHIP. This might come as a surprise to most of the baseball world, but it’s not atall to me - he’s always had the stuff, it’s just been throwing too many pitches that would do him in early. He’s improved his control, while maintaining his high strikeout numbers (24 Ks in 30 IP), and that’s a big reason why he’s in a real groove right now. McDonald has been very steady, and there’s no evidence to suggest that he’s about to fall of the wagon that is his 2012 season, especially considering he’s had success against the Reds in the recent past. He made five starts against them last year, en route to posting a solid 3.49 ERA in 28 innings. Look for J-Mac to keep it going here tonight.

The key factor to get a winning under here will be the hopeful improvement of Mike Leake, who, thus far, has been the complete opposite of his first two fine seasons as a pro. Leake was 12-9 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP last year in 2011, butso far in 2012, he’s been dreadful for the most part at 0-3, while owning a 6.65 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. This guy was supposed to be one of the brighter young pitchers in the bigs, but has strayed away from that philosophy. Is he really that bad, though? No, of course not. I watched a bunch of his starts last year and thought he’d be a shoe-in to have nice, solid career as a mid-rotation starter. As a result, I think his numbers will change for the better relativelys oon, and there’s good reason he can start a run beginning with a road bout in Pittsburgh - he was 1-1 in three starts against them last year, registering a 3.50 ERA and nifty 1.00 WHIP in 18 innings, striking out 15 in the process. I like Leake to get it back on track tonight, and if McDonald continues his impressive streak of quality pitching, we should nail this under.


**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
 
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Final $$ amounts for my two biggest bets of the evening:

Garcia vs Norris UNDER 8 - $130 for $131
Leake vs McDonald UNDER 8 - $86 for $70 ($11 for $10 of that on under 7.5)

Also ADDING:

Holland vs Lowe OVER 8.5 - $44 for $40
Drabek vs Wilson UNDER 7 - $22 for $20
 

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