Top 5 clutch playoff performances
These five guys were impervious to pressure; who else could join this list?
By Neil Paine | Basketball-Reference.com
ESPN INSIDER
There have been plenty of great playoff performances over the past 26 seasons, and ranking them is largely an academic exercise (flashing ring No. 5, does Kobe Bryant really care where his infamous 6-for-24 Game 7 places statistically?). Still, it's the kind of debate that sports fans live for, and it makes for a fun project as we start these 2012 playoffs.
<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- INLINE MODULE -->What's clutch and non-clutch?
The performance metric of choice is alternate win score (AWS), a linear-weights stat invented by Dan Rosenbaum and David Lewin that I found was the best predictor of future team wins.
To determine the "clutchness" of a performance, calculate the AWS that a player "should have" posted in each game based on his regular-season performance, the location of the game, and the quality of the opponent, and compare to his actual AWS. Players who outperformed their expected scores were considered clutch; players who underperfomed were considered to have choked. Then, to determine the relative "importance" of each game toward the championship, I used the concept of championship leverage.
<!-- END INLINE MODULE --><!-- end inline 1 -->With that in mind, I put together a list of the five greatest clutch playoff (and "un-clutch") performances since 1986. On paper, the premise is simple: Calculate a performance metric for every playoff game by a player over that span, see who raised or lowered his game the most versus his regular-season form, then weigh said changes by the importance of each game (see chart to right).
Some clutch performances that missed the cut: Isiah Thomas' play (43 points, eight assists) in Game 6 of the 1988 Finals was great, and the game itself was worth 4.33 times as much as an average playoff game. Robert Horry's 15 points were clutch in Game 7 of the 2005 Finals (9.01 leverage), Rashard Lewis unexpectedly had 34 points and 11 boards in Game 2 of the '09 Finals (3.49 leverage), Vernon Maxwell helped Houston win it all with 21 points in Game 7 of the '94 Finals (7.43 leverage) and Tim Duncan put up a terrific 32-point, 20-rebound stat line in Game 1 of the '03 Finals (3.41 leverage).
None of those, however, were good enough to crack the top 5.
Here are the games that were:
<offer>5. Ray Allen, Boston Celtics, Game 6 of 2008 Finals versus L.A. Lakers
Leverage Index: 4.27
26 points (8-for-12 FG), four rebounds: 17.8 AWS
Expected AWS: 5.4
During the Celtics' magical 2007-08 regular season (in which they won a league-best 66 games), Allen was Boston's third-best player by AWS, trailing Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. But in the deciding game of the Finals, Allen had the best game of any Celtic, pouring in 26 points on 8-for-12 shooting (including seven 3-pointers) to help Boston put the Lakers away for good.
4. Daniel Gibson, Cleveland Cavaliers, Game 1 of 2007 Finals versus San Antonio
Leverage Index: 3.87
16 points (7-for-9 FG), four steals, four assists: 15.6 AWS
Expected AWS: 1.2
The Cavaliers didn't win, and Gibson didn't even have the best game of any player in the '07 Finals opener (that would be Tim Duncan, who put up 24 points and 13 rebounds). But he did have the most unexpected performance. Playing on the road, on the game's biggest stage, against a Spurs team that severely suppressed opponents' individual stats, who would have guessed the rookie Gibson (who averaged a measly 4.6 PPG during the regular season) would lead all Cavs scorers with an efficient 16 points?
3. Joe Dumars, Detroit Pistons, Game 7 of 1987 Eastern Conference finals versus Boston
Leverage Index: 4.70
35 points (15-for-21 FG), six assists: 15.0 AWS
Expected AWS: 3.1
Dumars would earn serious acclaim for his playoff performance two years later, when he grabbed Finals MVP honors, but he raised his game the most for Detroit's ill-fated Game 7 against the Celtics in '87. The second-year man out of McNeese State averaged a modest 11.8 PPG during the regular season, but exploded for 35 in the third-highest-leverage non-Finals game of the past 26 years. Thomas ultimately shot the Pistons out of the game, going 10-for-28, but Dumars had done his absolute best to punch Detroit's ticket to the Finals.
2. Charles Barkley, Phoenix Suns, Game 7 of 1993 Western Conference finals versus Seattle
Leverage Index: 4.11
44 points (12-for-20 FG), 24 rebounds: 27.4 AWS
Expected AWS: 13.5
That Barkley had a great performance in the deciding game of the 1993 Western Conference finals wasn't exactly surprising; after all, Sir Charles had been named the league's MVP just 11 days before. But the extent of his greatness could not be predicted. Barkley had scored 43 (with a 29.3 AWS) in Game 5, but followed that up with a 13-point, 4-for-14 dud in Game 6. In Game 7, though, he put the Suns on his back and carried them to the Finals with a 44-and-24 performance -- one of only eight 40-and-20 playoff games since 1986 -- that was pure vintage Chuck.
1. James Worthy, Los Angeles Lakers, Game 7 of 1988 Finals versus Detroit
Leverage Index: 7.22
36 points (15-for-22 FG), 16 rebounds, 10 assists: 20.5 AWS
Expected AWS: 8.2
"Big Game James," indeed. In the NBA's fourth-highest-leverage game since 1986 (a game that influenced the outcome of the championship 7.2 times as much as an average playoff game), Worthy responded with 36 points and a triple-double, powering the Lakers to what would, in retrospect, be the final title of the Showtime era.
During the regular season, Worthy had been a solid co-second banana (with Byron Scott) to Magic Johnson, but he exploded during the playoffs, culminating in by far the highest-leverage triple-double of the past 26 years. As John Hollinger has noted, Worthy's performance not only came in the most pressure-packed of games, but it also was one of the most unbelievable outliers ever -- it was the only triple-double of Worthy's 1,069-game career (including the playoffs). He truly saved his best for the game that mattered the most.
This year's outlook
As for this season, it's tough to predict which players will raise/lower their games, but for what it's worth, the best lifetime clutch playoff players (with a minimum of 20 career games through 2011) who are active in this year's postseason are Baron Davis, James Harden, Nick Collison, Mario Chalmers and Jason Richardson. Each has posted a significantly better per-game AWS performance in the playoffs than you'd expect from their regular-season numbers.
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These five guys were impervious to pressure; who else could join this list?
By Neil Paine | Basketball-Reference.com
ESPN INSIDER
There have been plenty of great playoff performances over the past 26 seasons, and ranking them is largely an academic exercise (flashing ring No. 5, does Kobe Bryant really care where his infamous 6-for-24 Game 7 places statistically?). Still, it's the kind of debate that sports fans live for, and it makes for a fun project as we start these 2012 playoffs.
<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- INLINE MODULE -->What's clutch and non-clutch?
The performance metric of choice is alternate win score (AWS), a linear-weights stat invented by Dan Rosenbaum and David Lewin that I found was the best predictor of future team wins.
To determine the "clutchness" of a performance, calculate the AWS that a player "should have" posted in each game based on his regular-season performance, the location of the game, and the quality of the opponent, and compare to his actual AWS. Players who outperformed their expected scores were considered clutch; players who underperfomed were considered to have choked. Then, to determine the relative "importance" of each game toward the championship, I used the concept of championship leverage.
<!-- END INLINE MODULE --><!-- end inline 1 -->With that in mind, I put together a list of the five greatest clutch playoff (and "un-clutch") performances since 1986. On paper, the premise is simple: Calculate a performance metric for every playoff game by a player over that span, see who raised or lowered his game the most versus his regular-season form, then weigh said changes by the importance of each game (see chart to right).
Some clutch performances that missed the cut: Isiah Thomas' play (43 points, eight assists) in Game 6 of the 1988 Finals was great, and the game itself was worth 4.33 times as much as an average playoff game. Robert Horry's 15 points were clutch in Game 7 of the 2005 Finals (9.01 leverage), Rashard Lewis unexpectedly had 34 points and 11 boards in Game 2 of the '09 Finals (3.49 leverage), Vernon Maxwell helped Houston win it all with 21 points in Game 7 of the '94 Finals (7.43 leverage) and Tim Duncan put up a terrific 32-point, 20-rebound stat line in Game 1 of the '03 Finals (3.41 leverage).
None of those, however, were good enough to crack the top 5.
Here are the games that were:
<offer>5. Ray Allen, Boston Celtics, Game 6 of 2008 Finals versus L.A. Lakers
Leverage Index: 4.27
26 points (8-for-12 FG), four rebounds: 17.8 AWS
Expected AWS: 5.4
During the Celtics' magical 2007-08 regular season (in which they won a league-best 66 games), Allen was Boston's third-best player by AWS, trailing Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. But in the deciding game of the Finals, Allen had the best game of any Celtic, pouring in 26 points on 8-for-12 shooting (including seven 3-pointers) to help Boston put the Lakers away for good.
4. Daniel Gibson, Cleveland Cavaliers, Game 1 of 2007 Finals versus San Antonio
Leverage Index: 3.87
16 points (7-for-9 FG), four steals, four assists: 15.6 AWS
Expected AWS: 1.2
The Cavaliers didn't win, and Gibson didn't even have the best game of any player in the '07 Finals opener (that would be Tim Duncan, who put up 24 points and 13 rebounds). But he did have the most unexpected performance. Playing on the road, on the game's biggest stage, against a Spurs team that severely suppressed opponents' individual stats, who would have guessed the rookie Gibson (who averaged a measly 4.6 PPG during the regular season) would lead all Cavs scorers with an efficient 16 points?
3. Joe Dumars, Detroit Pistons, Game 7 of 1987 Eastern Conference finals versus Boston
Leverage Index: 4.70
35 points (15-for-21 FG), six assists: 15.0 AWS
Expected AWS: 3.1
Dumars would earn serious acclaim for his playoff performance two years later, when he grabbed Finals MVP honors, but he raised his game the most for Detroit's ill-fated Game 7 against the Celtics in '87. The second-year man out of McNeese State averaged a modest 11.8 PPG during the regular season, but exploded for 35 in the third-highest-leverage non-Finals game of the past 26 years. Thomas ultimately shot the Pistons out of the game, going 10-for-28, but Dumars had done his absolute best to punch Detroit's ticket to the Finals.
2. Charles Barkley, Phoenix Suns, Game 7 of 1993 Western Conference finals versus Seattle
Leverage Index: 4.11
44 points (12-for-20 FG), 24 rebounds: 27.4 AWS
Expected AWS: 13.5
That Barkley had a great performance in the deciding game of the 1993 Western Conference finals wasn't exactly surprising; after all, Sir Charles had been named the league's MVP just 11 days before. But the extent of his greatness could not be predicted. Barkley had scored 43 (with a 29.3 AWS) in Game 5, but followed that up with a 13-point, 4-for-14 dud in Game 6. In Game 7, though, he put the Suns on his back and carried them to the Finals with a 44-and-24 performance -- one of only eight 40-and-20 playoff games since 1986 -- that was pure vintage Chuck.
1. James Worthy, Los Angeles Lakers, Game 7 of 1988 Finals versus Detroit
Leverage Index: 7.22
36 points (15-for-22 FG), 16 rebounds, 10 assists: 20.5 AWS
Expected AWS: 8.2
"Big Game James," indeed. In the NBA's fourth-highest-leverage game since 1986 (a game that influenced the outcome of the championship 7.2 times as much as an average playoff game), Worthy responded with 36 points and a triple-double, powering the Lakers to what would, in retrospect, be the final title of the Showtime era.
During the regular season, Worthy had been a solid co-second banana (with Byron Scott) to Magic Johnson, but he exploded during the playoffs, culminating in by far the highest-leverage triple-double of the past 26 years. As John Hollinger has noted, Worthy's performance not only came in the most pressure-packed of games, but it also was one of the most unbelievable outliers ever -- it was the only triple-double of Worthy's 1,069-game career (including the playoffs). He truly saved his best for the game that mattered the most.
This year's outlook
As for this season, it's tough to predict which players will raise/lower their games, but for what it's worth, the best lifetime clutch playoff players (with a minimum of 20 career games through 2011) who are active in this year's postseason are Baron Davis, James Harden, Nick Collison, Mario Chalmers and Jason Richardson. Each has posted a significantly better per-game AWS performance in the playoffs than you'd expect from their regular-season numbers.
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