2012 MLB O/URecord: 79-83-6, -$578
2011 MLB O/URecord: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, now I’m starting to get pissed off. My string of bad luck continues, as every break is still going against me. Officially, I was “2-3-1” yesterday, but obviously that should have turned out much better. My Wolf vs Bumgarner under was 1-1 in the 6th, couldn’t have been anymore right before the bullpens let it get away and turn into a push. My Drabek vs Wilson under was 2-1 in the 6th before the Toronto bullpen basically gave the under away with their horrible fielding - literally. Anyone who watched the game saw Blue Jays relievers TWICE throw easy double-play balls away on tailor-made ground balls hit right back tot hem, not even getting the out at second, and thus leading to a few runs, and of course, the under ultimately losing by one (I have to look up how many over/unders I've lost this year by one run or less. It's ridiculous).
As for my best bet Garcia vs Norris under, what was my main reason for doing it? Because Bud Norris OWNS the Cardinals, just as he did again last night by giving up zero earned runs (One unearned) in six terrific innings. That's a beautiful trend I've been tracking since he made his first start against them in 2009, and of course I'm not rewarded for it. If Jamie Garcia could have given us even a slightly-less-than-normal performance, against a not-so-great Astros offense, we easily win that, but two fluke walks leading to the grand slam in the first inning did us in. He was nearly perfect the rest of the way, and of course we only lose by a couple of runs, thanks to the bullpen as well. So, again, it’s just so frustrating. If you’re a regular reader, you know I’m giving you the RIGHT over/under to take 55-59% of the time, and it’s fluke bullshit that is resulting in most of my losses. But I’m not letting it get to me, just moving on, knowing in the end, I’ll be back at my expected 57-percent territory. I work too hard at this for these bad breaks to continue; wayyy too hard. Sundays have been tough on me this year (**Cough** Getting screwed on Drabek vs Matusz **Cough**), but today looks promising…
Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays (Best Bet) - $92 for $70
Tommy Milone vs Matt Moore
UNDER 7.5
Interesting battle between two young up-and-coming lefthanders, and perhaps one of the last opportunities to grab one of their unders before they regularly throw in gameswith lines of 7 or less. Matt Moore, after all, is the definition of a can’t-miss prospect. Yes, his numbers at this point in time still leave a little bit to be desired (1-1, 4.20 ERA, 1.57 WHIP), but that’s mainly from one off start he had in April in Boston. What pitcher doesn’t have a bad start in Boston? In his other four starts, he’s given up two runs or less in three of them, while the other was a three-run outing in which he had Minnesota shut down for most of the game so it happens. Hopefully, Moore himself is as confident as I am in his abilities because he’s obviously shown he can be a successful starting pitcher - and for a long time in this league. His last outing was a nice five-inning, one-run, seven-strikeout performance against Seattle, so hopefully he can use that as a building block to becoming the consistent dominant pitcher that he’s fully capable of being. It’s still clearly obvious to me after that postseasonstart against the Rangers last year in the ALDS, in which he virtually owned the eventual American League Champions IN Texas in his second career professional start, that this guy is meant for stardom.
Tommy Milone may not have the lofty expectations that his opposing hurler has, but he is still capable of being a very good pitcher at this point in his career. He showed signs of it last year in his first go-around with the Nationals, and he’s flashed it in bunches here to begin his Athletics tenure. His numbers are good(3-2, 3.69 ERA, 1.01 WHIP), but would be even better had he not, like Moore, succumbed to getting hit around in Boston, which happened in his last start actually. That’s the only concern I have is that for a relatively unknown pitcher (I know him well, but to the general baseball fanbase, he’s still an unknown), how does he bounce back from an off-start? Hopefully he realizes right away that it’s part of the grind of developing and that everyone getsh ammered a bit at Fenway Park. I think he gets back on track here today and has a nice entertaining duel with Moore.
Other 5/6 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking:
Yu Darvish vs Ubaldo Jimenez UNDER 8 - $35 for $30
Brandon Beachy vs Juan Nicasio UNDER 9 - $19 for $15
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/URecord: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, now I’m starting to get pissed off. My string of bad luck continues, as every break is still going against me. Officially, I was “2-3-1” yesterday, but obviously that should have turned out much better. My Wolf vs Bumgarner under was 1-1 in the 6th, couldn’t have been anymore right before the bullpens let it get away and turn into a push. My Drabek vs Wilson under was 2-1 in the 6th before the Toronto bullpen basically gave the under away with their horrible fielding - literally. Anyone who watched the game saw Blue Jays relievers TWICE throw easy double-play balls away on tailor-made ground balls hit right back tot hem, not even getting the out at second, and thus leading to a few runs, and of course, the under ultimately losing by one (I have to look up how many over/unders I've lost this year by one run or less. It's ridiculous).
As for my best bet Garcia vs Norris under, what was my main reason for doing it? Because Bud Norris OWNS the Cardinals, just as he did again last night by giving up zero earned runs (One unearned) in six terrific innings. That's a beautiful trend I've been tracking since he made his first start against them in 2009, and of course I'm not rewarded for it. If Jamie Garcia could have given us even a slightly-less-than-normal performance, against a not-so-great Astros offense, we easily win that, but two fluke walks leading to the grand slam in the first inning did us in. He was nearly perfect the rest of the way, and of course we only lose by a couple of runs, thanks to the bullpen as well. So, again, it’s just so frustrating. If you’re a regular reader, you know I’m giving you the RIGHT over/under to take 55-59% of the time, and it’s fluke bullshit that is resulting in most of my losses. But I’m not letting it get to me, just moving on, knowing in the end, I’ll be back at my expected 57-percent territory. I work too hard at this for these bad breaks to continue; wayyy too hard. Sundays have been tough on me this year (**Cough** Getting screwed on Drabek vs Matusz **Cough**), but today looks promising…
Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays (Best Bet) - $92 for $70
Tommy Milone vs Matt Moore
UNDER 7.5
Interesting battle between two young up-and-coming lefthanders, and perhaps one of the last opportunities to grab one of their unders before they regularly throw in gameswith lines of 7 or less. Matt Moore, after all, is the definition of a can’t-miss prospect. Yes, his numbers at this point in time still leave a little bit to be desired (1-1, 4.20 ERA, 1.57 WHIP), but that’s mainly from one off start he had in April in Boston. What pitcher doesn’t have a bad start in Boston? In his other four starts, he’s given up two runs or less in three of them, while the other was a three-run outing in which he had Minnesota shut down for most of the game so it happens. Hopefully, Moore himself is as confident as I am in his abilities because he’s obviously shown he can be a successful starting pitcher - and for a long time in this league. His last outing was a nice five-inning, one-run, seven-strikeout performance against Seattle, so hopefully he can use that as a building block to becoming the consistent dominant pitcher that he’s fully capable of being. It’s still clearly obvious to me after that postseasonstart against the Rangers last year in the ALDS, in which he virtually owned the eventual American League Champions IN Texas in his second career professional start, that this guy is meant for stardom.
Tommy Milone may not have the lofty expectations that his opposing hurler has, but he is still capable of being a very good pitcher at this point in his career. He showed signs of it last year in his first go-around with the Nationals, and he’s flashed it in bunches here to begin his Athletics tenure. His numbers are good(3-2, 3.69 ERA, 1.01 WHIP), but would be even better had he not, like Moore, succumbed to getting hit around in Boston, which happened in his last start actually. That’s the only concern I have is that for a relatively unknown pitcher (I know him well, but to the general baseball fanbase, he’s still an unknown), how does he bounce back from an off-start? Hopefully he realizes right away that it’s part of the grind of developing and that everyone getsh ammered a bit at Fenway Park. I think he gets back on track here today and has a nice entertaining duel with Moore.
Other 5/6 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking:
Yu Darvish vs Ubaldo Jimenez UNDER 8 - $35 for $30
Brandon Beachy vs Juan Nicasio UNDER 9 - $19 for $15
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
