Top goalies vs. dangerous shots
Should everyone be lauding Braden Holtby's performance?
By Neil Greenberg | ESPN Insider
It would have been highly unlikely to imagine that Braden Holtby would rank among the leading goalies through the first two rounds of the Stanley Cup playoffs. That's because the Washington Capitals' 22-year-old netminder didn't start a game this season until Feb. 13.
"Down the stretch we were out of playoffs at the time; we got beat in Chicago and Neuvy [Michal Neuvirth] got hurt and [Tomas] Vokoun was already hurt," Washington Capitals head coach Dale Hunter explained. "[Holtby] had to play in Detroit and in Philadelphia and took three out of the four points. [It] was huge for us to even be making the playoffs."
Holtby continues to be huge in the playoffs, stopping 18 of the 20 shots he faced in the Capitals' 3-2, Game 4 win on Saturday afternoon, tying the series at two games apiece. He has now gone 27 straight starts in the NHL -- including 11 in the playoffs -- without suffering back-to-back setbacks.
"Everyone is lauding Holtby," former Capitals head coach Bruce Boudreau wrote in the L.A. Times, "but frankly the Rangers aren't getting a lot of chances." Is that just sour grapes, or is the former coach on target when he says Holtby is more sizzle than steak?
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Goalies make their reputations in the playoffs by making key saves at key times, and the line between a winning effort that steals a series and one that ultimately sends the team packing is usually razor thin. One large part of earning the "clutch" moniker -- and helping a team to victory -- is how a goalie handles dangerous shots.
Dangerous shots, or scoring chances, are those that originate from an area loosely defined as the top of the circles inside the faceoff dots to the goal line. By looking at only these dangerous shots, we help level the playing field among goaltenders and eliminate routine saves to see which goalies should be lauded.
During the regular season, 49 percent of all shots against could be considered "dangerous," and netminders saved 85.4 percent of them. That context provides a sense of which remaining goaltenders are performing above or below average in the playoffs.
<!-- begin inline 1 --> Regular Season Playoffs
<table><thead><tr><th>Goalie</th><th>D Sv%</th><th>Non-D Sv%</th><th>%Danger</th><th>D Sv%</th><th>Non-D Sv%</th><th>%Danger</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Pekka Rinne</td><td>0.846</td><td>0.977</td><td>44.5%</td><td>0.842</td><td>0.987</td><td>39.8%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Braden Holtby</td><td>0.817</td><td>0.965</td><td>41.1%</td><td>0.883</td><td>0.970</td><td>40.4%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Jonathan Quick</td><td>0.867</td><td>0.975</td><td>46.7%</td><td>0.907</td><td>0.979</td><td>43.2%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Henrik Lundqvist</td><td>0.891</td><td>0.968</td><td>50.9%</td><td>0.911</td><td>0.971</td><td>44.0%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Martin Brodeur</td><td>0.830</td><td>0.969</td><td>47.2%</td><td>0.887</td><td>0.943</td><td>46.8%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Mike Smith</td><td>0.865</td><td>0.982</td><td>49.7%</td><td>0.914</td><td>0.967</td><td>47.1%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ilya Bryzgalov</td><td>0.816</td><td>0.976</td><td>46.4%</td><td>0.787</td><td>0.969</td><td>50.0%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Brian Elliott</td><td>0.898</td><td>0.979</td><td>50.4%</td><td>0.839</td><td>0.987</td><td>54.7%</td></tr></tbody></table>
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From this data we can come to several conclusions. Boudreau was right: The Rangers aren't getting many chances on Holtby, as he has seen the second-lowest percentage of dangerous shots in the playoffs among second-round goalies. Credit Washington's defense, which has blocked a league-leading 244 shots over 11 games.
Also evident: The St. Louis defense hasn't done Brian Elliott any favors. The Blues' blueliners have given up the highest percentage of dangerous shots of the teams remaining, and more than they did during the regular season. Elliott has also been below average in saving them, which helps explain why the Blues were swept by the Los Angeles Kings. Ilya Bryzgalov can shoulder most of the blame for Philadelphia being down 3-1 to New Jersey, as he has been completely ineffective at saving the dangerous shots this postseason.
Nashville's defense has made things easier on Pekka Rinne, one of this season's Vezina Trophy finalists. The Preds are allowing the lowest percentage of dangerous shots, but Rinne's failure to stop them is part of why the Predators find themselves down 3-1 in the series.
The performance of Mike Smith, on the other hand, has been a pleasant surprise. He has the highest save percentage against dangerous shots of the goalies remaining, despite seeing them frequently in the postseason, which has the Phoenix Coyotes one win away from the Western Conference finals.
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Should everyone be lauding Braden Holtby's performance?
By Neil Greenberg | ESPN Insider
It would have been highly unlikely to imagine that Braden Holtby would rank among the leading goalies through the first two rounds of the Stanley Cup playoffs. That's because the Washington Capitals' 22-year-old netminder didn't start a game this season until Feb. 13.
"Down the stretch we were out of playoffs at the time; we got beat in Chicago and Neuvy [Michal Neuvirth] got hurt and [Tomas] Vokoun was already hurt," Washington Capitals head coach Dale Hunter explained. "[Holtby] had to play in Detroit and in Philadelphia and took three out of the four points. [It] was huge for us to even be making the playoffs."
Holtby continues to be huge in the playoffs, stopping 18 of the 20 shots he faced in the Capitals' 3-2, Game 4 win on Saturday afternoon, tying the series at two games apiece. He has now gone 27 straight starts in the NHL -- including 11 in the playoffs -- without suffering back-to-back setbacks.
"Everyone is lauding Holtby," former Capitals head coach Bruce Boudreau wrote in the L.A. Times, "but frankly the Rangers aren't getting a lot of chances." Is that just sour grapes, or is the former coach on target when he says Holtby is more sizzle than steak?
<offer>
Goalies make their reputations in the playoffs by making key saves at key times, and the line between a winning effort that steals a series and one that ultimately sends the team packing is usually razor thin. One large part of earning the "clutch" moniker -- and helping a team to victory -- is how a goalie handles dangerous shots.
Dangerous shots, or scoring chances, are those that originate from an area loosely defined as the top of the circles inside the faceoff dots to the goal line. By looking at only these dangerous shots, we help level the playing field among goaltenders and eliminate routine saves to see which goalies should be lauded.
During the regular season, 49 percent of all shots against could be considered "dangerous," and netminders saved 85.4 percent of them. That context provides a sense of which remaining goaltenders are performing above or below average in the playoffs.
<!-- begin inline 1 --> Regular Season Playoffs
<table><thead><tr><th>Goalie</th><th>D Sv%</th><th>Non-D Sv%</th><th>%Danger</th><th>D Sv%</th><th>Non-D Sv%</th><th>%Danger</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Pekka Rinne</td><td>0.846</td><td>0.977</td><td>44.5%</td><td>0.842</td><td>0.987</td><td>39.8%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Braden Holtby</td><td>0.817</td><td>0.965</td><td>41.1%</td><td>0.883</td><td>0.970</td><td>40.4%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Jonathan Quick</td><td>0.867</td><td>0.975</td><td>46.7%</td><td>0.907</td><td>0.979</td><td>43.2%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Henrik Lundqvist</td><td>0.891</td><td>0.968</td><td>50.9%</td><td>0.911</td><td>0.971</td><td>44.0%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Martin Brodeur</td><td>0.830</td><td>0.969</td><td>47.2%</td><td>0.887</td><td>0.943</td><td>46.8%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Mike Smith</td><td>0.865</td><td>0.982</td><td>49.7%</td><td>0.914</td><td>0.967</td><td>47.1%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ilya Bryzgalov</td><td>0.816</td><td>0.976</td><td>46.4%</td><td>0.787</td><td>0.969</td><td>50.0%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Brian Elliott</td><td>0.898</td><td>0.979</td><td>50.4%</td><td>0.839</td><td>0.987</td><td>54.7%</td></tr></tbody></table>
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From this data we can come to several conclusions. Boudreau was right: The Rangers aren't getting many chances on Holtby, as he has seen the second-lowest percentage of dangerous shots in the playoffs among second-round goalies. Credit Washington's defense, which has blocked a league-leading 244 shots over 11 games.
Also evident: The St. Louis defense hasn't done Brian Elliott any favors. The Blues' blueliners have given up the highest percentage of dangerous shots of the teams remaining, and more than they did during the regular season. Elliott has also been below average in saving them, which helps explain why the Blues were swept by the Los Angeles Kings. Ilya Bryzgalov can shoulder most of the blame for Philadelphia being down 3-1 to New Jersey, as he has been completely ineffective at saving the dangerous shots this postseason.
Nashville's defense has made things easier on Pekka Rinne, one of this season's Vezina Trophy finalists. The Preds are allowing the lowest percentage of dangerous shots, but Rinne's failure to stop them is part of why the Predators find themselves down 3-1 in the series.
The performance of Mike Smith, on the other hand, has been a pleasant surprise. He has the highest save percentage against dangerous shots of the goalies remaining, despite seeing them frequently in the postseason, which has the Phoenix Coyotes one win away from the Western Conference finals.
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