2012 MLB O/U Record: 80-84-7, -$640 (I’m more embarrassed than anyone on Earth right now w/that record. Trust me)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
1-1-1 yesterday, although that one loss was very disheartening, as I haven’t been that off on a best bet all season long. Then again, I don’t think there are too many people out there who anticipated such a high-scoring game in what most likely was supposed to be a nice left-hander pitcher’s duel between Tom Milone and Matt Moore. Milone has looked good all year, while Moore was just beginning to hit his stride, the type of form that will inevitably place him among the league’s elite starting pitchers on a yearly basis. Whatever, it’s just one of those games that sometimes happens where nothing in it makes any sense, and it’s a bad loss that you just want to put behind you and forget about. Wish I had more on my second best bet, Darvish vs Jimenez under, as I felt that one a lot more in terms of vibe, and that’s where my greatest success comes from in over/unders is the feel I have for a game, before finding the evidence that strongly supports it. But that’s yesterday, now this is today, Monday, my favorite day for over/unders…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Leading Up To Gametime**
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians (Best Bet)
Eric Stults vs Josh Tomlin
UNDER 8.5
I love moments like these in baseball. Much like when Ryan Vogelsong randomly seemingly came back from the dead last year to literally put together an all-star campaign out of nowhere, Eric Stults is a guy with the potential to do almost the same exact thing. That is not at all to say he’s an all-star caliber pitcher, but Stults is a guy much like Vogelsong who came from random obscurity, years after he last made his mark. Stults’ case is a bit different, as he did pitch last season, compared to Vogelsong’s re-appearance since 2006, but miraculously, this is his first start since 2009, when he was pitching with theDodgers - and pitching well, I may add. While his ERA may have been 4.86 with a 1.54 WHIP, I recall flashes of dominance during his tenure there, including an absolutely brilliant complete game, four-hit shutout of the San Francisco Giants, virtually the same lineup that would go on to win the World Series a year later. I know that’s stretching it a bit, but there was something about this guy that caught my eye a bit back then (Note: 2009 is when I first started doing MLB over/unders, albeit not every single day of the entire season like I’ve been doing the past couple of years), so I have confidence he’ll take thiso pportunity and run with it, considering there’s an official opening in the White Sox rotation. Stults hasn’t done anything relevant since, as he floundered around in Japan in 2010 before a short unsuccessful bullpen role in2011 with Colorado, but I like this spot for him. He was doing well at Triple-A Charlotte where he compiled an ERA in the low 2’s to go along with 26 Ks in 28 IP. Stults also has the advantage of facing a lineup that saw most of its action earlier this afternoon against a right-handed pitcher, so their mindset facing a lefty won’t be as in tune to begin. Stults has enough talent to not let this chance slip away, and I'm sure he's smart enough to realize that a lot of 32-year old pitchers don't often get second chances in the greatest professional sports league in the world.
Meanwhile, there’s the other end of the equation, that being Josh Tomlin. Somehow, Tomlin didn’t face the division rival White Sox at all last year, but has faced them twice already, including last Wednesday when he surrendered three runs in sixinnings - a quality start as defined by the stat itself. Tomlin’s numbers for the season do not look good (5.27 ERA, 1.32 WHIP), but obviously he’s better than that. Of course, we’ve already seen Josh Tomlin’s ceiling last year whenhe was cruising for most of the year before settling in with a fine 4.25 ERA and 12 wins, to go with a very sweet 1.08 WHIP. Tomlin is one of the more consistent pitchers out there, as proven when he set the Major League record for consecutive starts to begin a career going at least five innings (I love that stat, such an underrated accomplishment), and I believe he’ll eventually get back into the mid-4’s for his earned run average, a number we should be seeing much of throughout his career as a mid-rotation starter. He'll also be pitching with less pressure than he might face in a usual start, as the Indians already won the first game of this doubleheader this afternoon.
Yes, this does seem like a random best bet. But here’s the best part of it all:Vegas CLEARLY agrees with me here, as evident in the line. Think about it, if you study this stuff as much as I do, and that's hours every single day for six months, you’ll realize that just about 90-percentof the time, the line for this type of game would be 9. You have a guy who hasn’t started in three years and a guy with an ERA of over 5 facing one another in a hitter’s ballpark like Progressive Field in a potent Indians/White Sox rivalry that regularly features higher-end lines. Furthermore, both teams just played only hours ago and put up 14 combined runs, meaning their live bats are already loose and ready to potentially do some more damage. Why would Vegas make this game 8.5 instead of 9? They are definitely trying to bait people into the over. With my technique, I study and analyze the pitching matchup well before looking at the lines (The lines should never dictate or swoon your opinion. Thus, you should never look at them right away), and this game stuck out to me as much as any other before I saw the over/under of 8.5. Vegas giving this a low number, a half-run or full-run lower than it should be, was the final sell.
Other 5/7 MLB Over/UnderBets I’m Taking:
Carlos Zambrano vs Wandy Rodriguez OVER 7.5 (Both guys overachieving, at least one due for a relapse, and a good chance of that happening with two currently hot lineups. Only thing I don’t like is Law of Averages indicates the Astros not-so-great offense can’t keep up their recent string of consecutive overs; they haven’t had an under since my Dickey vs Norris best bet LAST Monday)
Tommy Hanson vs Jeff Samardzija UNDER 7 (Tricky, tricky matchup in the trickiestballpark in the league. Wind is on our side, although not as strong as on most nights)
Doug Fister vs Blake Beaven UNDER 7 (This one might get a writeup later depending on if my feeling for it increases throughout the night. Just such a dynamic storyline with Fister making his return off the DL to his old stomping grounds in Seattle, facing off with the guy who has seemingly replaced him in terms of production and spot; my No. 1 sleeper in all of baseball Blake Beaven. Very,very peculiar)
**May Add More Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
1-1-1 yesterday, although that one loss was very disheartening, as I haven’t been that off on a best bet all season long. Then again, I don’t think there are too many people out there who anticipated such a high-scoring game in what most likely was supposed to be a nice left-hander pitcher’s duel between Tom Milone and Matt Moore. Milone has looked good all year, while Moore was just beginning to hit his stride, the type of form that will inevitably place him among the league’s elite starting pitchers on a yearly basis. Whatever, it’s just one of those games that sometimes happens where nothing in it makes any sense, and it’s a bad loss that you just want to put behind you and forget about. Wish I had more on my second best bet, Darvish vs Jimenez under, as I felt that one a lot more in terms of vibe, and that’s where my greatest success comes from in over/unders is the feel I have for a game, before finding the evidence that strongly supports it. But that’s yesterday, now this is today, Monday, my favorite day for over/unders…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Leading Up To Gametime**
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians (Best Bet)
Eric Stults vs Josh Tomlin
UNDER 8.5
I love moments like these in baseball. Much like when Ryan Vogelsong randomly seemingly came back from the dead last year to literally put together an all-star campaign out of nowhere, Eric Stults is a guy with the potential to do almost the same exact thing. That is not at all to say he’s an all-star caliber pitcher, but Stults is a guy much like Vogelsong who came from random obscurity, years after he last made his mark. Stults’ case is a bit different, as he did pitch last season, compared to Vogelsong’s re-appearance since 2006, but miraculously, this is his first start since 2009, when he was pitching with theDodgers - and pitching well, I may add. While his ERA may have been 4.86 with a 1.54 WHIP, I recall flashes of dominance during his tenure there, including an absolutely brilliant complete game, four-hit shutout of the San Francisco Giants, virtually the same lineup that would go on to win the World Series a year later. I know that’s stretching it a bit, but there was something about this guy that caught my eye a bit back then (Note: 2009 is when I first started doing MLB over/unders, albeit not every single day of the entire season like I’ve been doing the past couple of years), so I have confidence he’ll take thiso pportunity and run with it, considering there’s an official opening in the White Sox rotation. Stults hasn’t done anything relevant since, as he floundered around in Japan in 2010 before a short unsuccessful bullpen role in2011 with Colorado, but I like this spot for him. He was doing well at Triple-A Charlotte where he compiled an ERA in the low 2’s to go along with 26 Ks in 28 IP. Stults also has the advantage of facing a lineup that saw most of its action earlier this afternoon against a right-handed pitcher, so their mindset facing a lefty won’t be as in tune to begin. Stults has enough talent to not let this chance slip away, and I'm sure he's smart enough to realize that a lot of 32-year old pitchers don't often get second chances in the greatest professional sports league in the world.
Meanwhile, there’s the other end of the equation, that being Josh Tomlin. Somehow, Tomlin didn’t face the division rival White Sox at all last year, but has faced them twice already, including last Wednesday when he surrendered three runs in sixinnings - a quality start as defined by the stat itself. Tomlin’s numbers for the season do not look good (5.27 ERA, 1.32 WHIP), but obviously he’s better than that. Of course, we’ve already seen Josh Tomlin’s ceiling last year whenhe was cruising for most of the year before settling in with a fine 4.25 ERA and 12 wins, to go with a very sweet 1.08 WHIP. Tomlin is one of the more consistent pitchers out there, as proven when he set the Major League record for consecutive starts to begin a career going at least five innings (I love that stat, such an underrated accomplishment), and I believe he’ll eventually get back into the mid-4’s for his earned run average, a number we should be seeing much of throughout his career as a mid-rotation starter. He'll also be pitching with less pressure than he might face in a usual start, as the Indians already won the first game of this doubleheader this afternoon.
Yes, this does seem like a random best bet. But here’s the best part of it all:Vegas CLEARLY agrees with me here, as evident in the line. Think about it, if you study this stuff as much as I do, and that's hours every single day for six months, you’ll realize that just about 90-percentof the time, the line for this type of game would be 9. You have a guy who hasn’t started in three years and a guy with an ERA of over 5 facing one another in a hitter’s ballpark like Progressive Field in a potent Indians/White Sox rivalry that regularly features higher-end lines. Furthermore, both teams just played only hours ago and put up 14 combined runs, meaning their live bats are already loose and ready to potentially do some more damage. Why would Vegas make this game 8.5 instead of 9? They are definitely trying to bait people into the over. With my technique, I study and analyze the pitching matchup well before looking at the lines (The lines should never dictate or swoon your opinion. Thus, you should never look at them right away), and this game stuck out to me as much as any other before I saw the over/under of 8.5. Vegas giving this a low number, a half-run or full-run lower than it should be, was the final sell.
Other 5/7 MLB Over/UnderBets I’m Taking:
Carlos Zambrano vs Wandy Rodriguez OVER 7.5 (Both guys overachieving, at least one due for a relapse, and a good chance of that happening with two currently hot lineups. Only thing I don’t like is Law of Averages indicates the Astros not-so-great offense can’t keep up their recent string of consecutive overs; they haven’t had an under since my Dickey vs Norris best bet LAST Monday)
Tommy Hanson vs Jeff Samardzija UNDER 7 (Tricky, tricky matchup in the trickiestballpark in the league. Wind is on our side, although not as strong as on most nights)
Doug Fister vs Blake Beaven UNDER 7 (This one might get a writeup later depending on if my feeling for it increases throughout the night. Just such a dynamic storyline with Fister making his return off the DL to his old stomping grounds in Seattle, facing off with the guy who has seemingly replaced him in terms of production and spot; my No. 1 sleeper in all of baseball Blake Beaven. Very,very peculiar)
**May Add More Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
