Favorites: "risk" or "to win"

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I'd love to hear some insight on what you guys do and, most importantly, WHY.

Say you wager $100 per game. Also, for argument purposes, say the favorite price is -120. Do you set your wager amounts on the risk side (for example, risk $100 to win $83.33) or do you set it on the payoff side (risk $120 to win $100).


Here's my take. I tracked it each way last baseball season over 850 games at an average price of -122. I tracked my picks if I risked $100 on each and if I wagered to win $100 on each. I would have ended up risking $85,000 to win $7,176 by risking $100 flat on each game and risked $103,869 to win $9,479 if I tried to win $100 on the payoff instead. That's 22% more risk for the latter but a return of 32% more profit. The R.O.I.'s (return on investment, which is the great equalizer) were 8.4% versus 9.1%.

So I got a better return by betting to win a set amount and this has always been the case every time I've tracked it. The only problem is the higher risk to your wallet so we need to control the amount risked in relation to the bankroll or budget. So, what I do is do some homework tracking my selections and calculate my average price per game if we're talking baseball or hockey (money lines). I found my average price is -120. I also have a set bankroll just for wagering (not paying bills or rent) and I want to limit my exposure to no more than 2% per game.

If I have a $5,000 bankroll, my limit per game would be $100. Since my average price is -120 (including underdogs), I subtract 20% from $100 and wager to win $80 on favorites and risk $80 on dogs. This seems to work for me but I'd like to hear some input from others who have thought about this. In Vegas, if you put up $100 at the window on a game, you're only going to profit the $83.33 and I figure if Vegas tries to encourage you to bet that way, the other way must be better. So far, I've found that it is.
 

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